This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.
- This insight is an update of the insight published on December 15th. The BYD (1211 HK) stock has been downtrending for a while, and LONG positioning starts to become attractive.
- Right now our model is still saying that the short-term upside is limited, same as it did on December 15th but the model was recalculated and shows new profit targets.
- BYD (1211 HK) started this week very strongly, closing up +3.74% on Monday. The stock may be bottoming, so we are favorable to buying here, with some caveats.
2. Nintendo Post-Launch Pivot: Why Switch 2 Software Rebound, Enhanced Dividends Support MAR26 Call
- The Switch 2 launch is proving successful, evidenced by observed consumer demand, high retail traffic, and management forecasts that raise both unit production targets (25 million by Mar26), OP targets.
- A strategic pivot toward enhanced shareholder returns and a high-margin software rebound are expected to drive gains, thanks to a high adoption rate from the 150-million original Switch user base.
- Nintendo’s JPY 2.1T in cash, provides a solid financial buffer for some of the risks seen such as dealing with component price fluctuations, production bottlenecks, FX risk, seasonal demand.
3. TSLA Outlook After -9% Annual Sales Decline: Relative-Value Trade Opportunity Vs. BYD
- Tesla (TSLA US) annual sales have fallen for the second year in a row, -9% 2025. China’s BYD (1211 HK) has now taken the top global EV sales spot.
- We recently proposed BYD (1211 HK) LONG in this insight – the BUY signal is still valid but you could place a relative value trade: SHORT BYD / LONG TSLA.
- Here is the rationale for the trade: BYD, as explained in our recent insight, may pullback after a brief rally that could last only another week, while TSLA is oversold.
4. Kioxia’s AI Rebirth: CBA Technology and the Nikkei 225 Question
- Kioxia is positioned as a key player in “Inference at Scale” within the AI infrastructure ecosystem, leveraging its proprietary, power-efficient CMOS directly Bonded to Array (CBA) NAND flash technology.
- Exceptional market performance has been driven by AI-centric SSD demand, leading to a 540% return in 2025 and a strong operating profit recovery.
- Key requirements being checked off and high trading volumes position Kioxia as a possible candidate for potential future inclusion in the Nikkei 225 index.
5. [2026 High Conviction] SK Hynix Technology Moat: Leveraging HBM4, MR-MUF for the FEB26 Call Strategy
- SK Hynix is positioned as the structural leader in the AI memory supercycle, leveraging its proprietary MR-MUF and HBM4 technology for unparalleled sales visibility through 2026.
- The company’s record 3Q 2025 financial results and strong Free Cash Flow indicate a dramatic cyclical turnaround, suggesting a possible valuation gap compared to US peers.
- The stock’s potential for accelerated appreciation, driven by the HBM4 ramp-up and potential US listing, provides a possible opportunity to establish a directional volatility position.
6. TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook Ahead of January Earnings
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) is expected to release its Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings on January 15, 202.
- Everyone is bullish about TSMC, no doubts about it, but as the earnings date is 2 weeks away, it may be helpful to forecast where the stock could go.
- In the next 2 weeks the stock may reach an overbought state, and sell off after the earnings, or it could pullback before the earnings and rally afterwards.
7. Hong Kong January 2026 Monthly Covered Call Report
- Top Hong Kong Stock Exchange listed covered call candidates for the month of January.
- The top 10 provide an average ~6.7% premium with a potential ~7.8% upside P&L if exercised.
- Investors with a neutral 1-month view on the underlying can seek to generate income.
8. Asian Stocks Tactical Outlook (Week Dec 29 – Jan 2)
- A tactical WEEKLY snapshot of the Asian indices and stocks we cover.
- China Mobile (941 HK) is very oversold and BYD (1211 HK) and Softbank Group (9984 JP) are mildly oversold, all these stocks currently present BUY opportunities.
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) are mildly overbought but after 4 weeks up CBA presents a more compelling SHORT or hedging opportunity.
9. Hecla (HL): 162% EPS CAGR and 74% Silver Margins Anchor the JUN26 Option Strategy
- Hecla achieved a 74% silver margin and a 290% price return, dramatically reducing net leverage to 0.3x and joining the S&P MidCap 400.
- Macro tailwinds from US debt and central bank gold buying meet a structural silver supply deficit driven by growing solar and EV sector demand.
- Operational catalysts, including the Keno Hill ramp-up and the Nevada gold discovery, are set to accelerate free cash flow into 2026, supporting a strong long volatility strategy.
10. Cross-Asset Volatility: Capturing Brent Premium to Finance FEB26 VIX Systemic Spike Hedge
- A systemic risk hedge targeting potential equity volatility spikes in early 2026 is warranted, focusing on VIX futures and options.
- Brent Crude is currently in a stable, range-bound market, caught between conflicting forces like a geopolitical price floor and projected supply overhang, leading to elevated options premium.
- The recommended cross-asset strategy involves monetizing this high, range-bound volatility in Brent Crude to finance the cost of a systemic spike hedge.
