Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Jul 27, 2025

1. NIFTY50 Index Outlook Amid Ongoing Rebalance Review

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• As outlined by Brian Freitas , the NIFTY Index ‘s September rebalance ends July 31st, the announcement of the changes will take place end August and implemented on September 29th.
• The index has been pulling back for 3 weeks, it’s oversold according to our model, 75% probability of reversing up this week.
• Lower support limit would be 24319, while a rally could take the index to 25642 across a couple of weeks. The rally won’t last more than 2 weeks probably.

2. HSI Index Tactical View: How Much Further Can the Rally Run?

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has reached new highs (25538). Our quantitative model says the index has reached a 75% probability of reversal.
• Let’s break down the model’s info: PRICE MODEL 75%, TIME MODEL 75%, combined prob. of reversal is 75%. The fact that both model’s factors are overbought is “bearish”.
• Can the index climb higher? Our detailed analysis is in the insight below, together with screenshots from the model.

3. Toyota (7203 JP) Surges 14% — A Contrarian Option Strategy

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Context: On 23 July 2025, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) surged 14.3%, driven by macro factors tied to tariffs. This Insight examines how that sharp move affected the stock’s volatility surface.
• Key Observations: Implied volatility spiked to extreme percentiles, with two-week IV hitting the 99th–100th percentile. Skew dynamics show otm calls becoming historically rich relative to puts.
• Opportunity: Elevated implied volatility and historically flat skew present an attractive setup for a zero-cost option strategy.

4. Global Markets Tactical Outlook: Week of July 21 – July 25

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• A quick synoptic look at the tactical models for the key indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week July 21 – July 25.
• OVERSOLD: Meta (META US) , HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) , NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) 
• OVERBOUGHT: Alphabet (GOOG US) , Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) , NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) , Taiwan Semiconductor (2330 TT) , CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) ,  KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) 

5. India’s Energy Exchanges: Market Coupling, the Next Big Disruption

By Sudarshan Bhandari, Beat the Street

• India’s CERC has approved the implementation of Market Coupling in the DAM(Day Ahead Market)  by Jan-26, with Real Time Market (RTM) coupling to follow after operational experience is gained.
• IEX currently commands 99.8% market share in both DAM and RTM. With MC, price discovery will be centralized, eroding IEX’s platform advantage and likely resulting in loss of market share.
• If MC had been implemented in FY25, IEX’s earnings would have been 20% lower. This regulatory shift poses a clear structural risk to IEX’s volume dominance and earnings growth.

6. US Stocks Earnings Tactical Outlooks: GOOG, AMZN, META, AAPL, TSLA, NVDA

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Some of the US Stocks we cover have already reported their earnings: Tesla (TSLA US) and Alphabet (GOOG US) .
• Others will report next week: Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) ,  Meta (META US) , Apple (AAPL US), while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will report on August 28th.
• We dive into each stock potential for upside or downside at this junction, based on tactical analysis of our quantitative trend forecast models.

7. HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 30 July: Price Action and Option Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

• Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report Interim Results 2025 on 30 July at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.
• Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC‘s announcement-day moves are significantly larger than average, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 2.2% implied move.
• Actionable Strategies: Understand the potential for amplified volatility and explore actionable option strategies leveraging the distinctive term structure around earnings.

8. Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (July 21–25): Materials and Energy Lead, Option Volumes Surge

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• Materials and Energy led the week, with single stocks in both sectors posting standout gains.
• Breadth was broad-based, and average returns among winners were unusually strong.
• Single stock option volumes surged, with pronounced Call activity mid-week.