This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. S&P/ASX 200 Tactical Outlook Post-Index Rebalance Announcement
- As reported by Brian Freitas on 6 June the list of changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices was announced, including some change for the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
- The S&P/ASX 200 index has become quite overbought as of last Friday’s Close, a pullback is probably imminent.
- This insight evaluates possible scenarios for the possible 2-4 weeks, beyond the June 20 date when the index review will become effective.
2. BYD (1211 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
- This Insight analyzes sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on BYD (1211 HK), executed over the period from 2 June to 9 June on the HKEX
- Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, from an in-the-money bear put spread, to a bold short-term bullish iron condor, and a butterfly aiming at a narrow price target.
- Why read: In-depth breakdown of complex option strategies, shedding light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
3. Key Markets Tactical Outlooks After Israel Strike on Iran
- A quick look at the tactical forecast models for some key markets impacted by the Israeli attack to Iran on June 13th.
- We analyze: Crude Oil Futures (CL1 COM COMDTY) , Gold Futures (GOLD COMDTY) , Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) , Nikkei 225 Index, Hang Seng Index and NIFTY Index
- Keep in mind that high volatility can push easily a market into the model’s tails, and forecasts in tails area rely on less data (i.e. less accurate).
4. Nikkei 225 Tactical Outlook Amidst Sony Corp’s Financial Group Spin-Off Talks
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) is currently rallying after a modest pullback last week.
- The index went above our model resistance level at 38347 (50% prob. of reversal). It’s modestly overbought and could go higher.
- News can perturbate the trajectory of the index but at the moment the Nikkei seems directed towards higher prices: 39216 is our profit target for this rally, before Jun 27th.
5. Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?
- Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes… we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%….
- Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
- Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.
6. US Asset Correlations Spike: Early Days, But A New Regime May Be Unfolding
- We revisit the evolving correlation between US equities, bonds, and the dollar post-Liberation Day.
- Recent asset price behavior may be signaling a deeper structural shift in US market dynamics.
- Market moves suggest that traditional hedging assumptions may need to be re-evaluated.
7. JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
- Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com (9618 HK), executed over the period from 4 June to 10 June on the HKEX
- Highlights: A range of noteworthy strategies, including a deep in-the-money, three-months Diagonal Call Spread and an ultra-low-cost, one-week Calendar Put Spread, highlighting diverse approaches to capitalize on market movements.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
8. S&P/ASX 200: All-Time Highs, Complacent Vols and a Tactical Hedge with a Relative Value Edge
- S&P/ASX 200 posts a rare rally, joining an elite list of historical moves.
- Implied volatility has collapsed to multi-year lows despite the surge in price.
- We discuss a defined, cost-efficient structure that allows positioning with asymmetry and edge.
9. Ping An (2318 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Option Trades
- Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Ping An Insurance (2318 HK), executed over the period from 6 to 12 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
- Highlights: Many strategies creatively utilize weekly expiries, sometimes employing options with as little as one or two days to maturity to generate upfront yield or financing.
- Why read: Detailed examples and break-down of complex option strategies provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
10. Meituan (3690 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
- Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on Meituan (3690 HK), executed over the period from 5 June to 11 June on the Hong Kong exchange.
- Highlights: A range of strategies, spanning time-horizons from just a few days to several months. Including a low-cost call spread with the potential to return approximately 8x the invested premium.
- Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
