This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Equity Derivatives on Smartkarma.
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1. Nvidia (NVDA US) Outlook Following $7B AI Chip Deal with Saudi Arabia
- NVIDIA stock rose over 3% Wednesday morning, after news of a reported multi-billion-dollar AI chip deal with Saudi Arabia, announced during an investment forum attended by President Trump.
- Nvidia will supply hundreds of thousands of AI chips over five years to Humain, a new Saudi AI venture backed by the $925B Public Investment Fund.
- Bank of America raised NVDA price target to $160 from $150. A Bloomberg report suggested the UAE may buy over 1 million Nvidia AI chips under a potential U.S. deal.
2. China Mobile (941 HK) Tactical Outlook
- Our previous insight indicated a potential buy opportunity immediately followed by higher prices, but China Mobile (941 HK) hasn’t really rallied much since our signal was released, 2 weeks ago.
- Monday, news about a US-China tariffs deal sent global stocks sharply higher. However, the stock closed the day at 84.25, our model’s Q2 profit target (i.e. not a strong rally…).
- Our time model also indicates an overbought state (74% probability of reversal): we’re not bearish on the stock, but in this insight we will discuss a few tactical scenarios.
3. BABA (9988.HK) Earnings: Volatility Setup, Post-Release Price Behavior and Hedge Recommendation
- Baba has rallied 26.6% off the April low but remains 6.82% below its March high. Against this backdrop, we examine implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
- Implied volatility and the implied jump are both elevated relative to historical norms.
- Given the setup, we suggest a short-vega hedge that offers downside protection while preserving limited upside participation.
4. Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior
- Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
- Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
- Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.
5. TSMC (2330.TT) Outlook After Intel 18A Setback
- TSMC (2330 TT) recent revenues reports were good (April: up 22.2% MoM, and up 48.1% YoY) and its direct competitor Intel (INTC US) is starting to look less competitive.
- According to a report from Reuters, Intel CFO David Zinsner revealed that some of the 18A prospects withdrew after trial production, leading to a lower-than-expected volume of committed demand.
- While Intel struggles, TSMC’s N2 technology is experiencing strong success, being adopted quickly by a wider range of mobile, HPC, AI customers. Our model suggests the stock can rally higher.
6. KOSPI 200 Tactical Outlook: Waiting for the June Elections
- In just three weeks, on June 3rd, South Korea will hold an early presidential election.
- The KOSPI 200 INDEX on Tuesday closed at 347.17, entering deeply overbought territory based on our time and price quantitative models.
- Whether the index rallies into the election and then declines, or starts selling off ahead of the vote, our tactical stance is unchanged: we recommend short exposure or appropriate hedging.
