Weekly Top Ten Equity Derivatives – Oct 5, 2025

1. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) Tactical Outlook: Waiting for A Rally

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• In our previous Fast Retailing (9983 JP) insight we identified a potential BUY opportunity ahead of the September 25 rebalance, but the rally failed to materialize. 
• The stock at the moment is oversold, according to our quantitative model, so we would like to review its tactical outlook in this insight.
• Right now, the stock is the most oversold of all the Asian stocks we track, probability of WEEKLY reversal stands at 72%, after last week’s Close.

2. Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
• OVERBOUGHT: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) 
• OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

3. BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: A Rally May Be Underway

By Nico Rosti, MRM Research

• BYD (1211 HK) is currently in a position from where it could rally. Our previous insight suggested a possible bottoming area around 100.9 but the stock never reached that low.
• This week the stock rallied to 114.7, then pulled back. If the stock is temporarily bottoming, it could rally past 115 and up to 130 from here. 
• According to our TIME MODEL the duration of the rally could be up to 3-4 weeks (2-3 more weeks up from here).

4. Hong Kong Single Stock Options (Sept 29 – Oct 03): Materials and IT Lead Amid Rising Option Activity

By John Ley, Clifton Derivatives

• HSI extended gains to fresh highs, supported by strong breadth, surging Materials and IT names, and rising single stock option activity
• Broad gains across all sectors highlighted strong momentum, with leadership from Materials and Information Technology.
• We examine the distribution of returns since the April lows finding that the tails are distinctly unbalanced.

5. A Rundown of the Last Month’s Futures and Options, Stock Options Views

By Jay Cameron, Cameron Design

• 3 global futures and options topics we covered included global equities, Brent, and Gold.  We review the topics discussed and look forward to another interesting month of volatility trades.
• NK remains moderately interesting for NK vs MSCI World vol with the leadership change coming up, though deep downside swings would not be expected.
• Were bullish on AI stocks, and highlighted a few favorites with some tactical options trades to monetize existing equity longs or put on new hedged volatility positions.

6. Microsoft Corp: Balancing Cloud and AI Strength Against Cost and Execution Risk

By Jay Cameron, Cameron Design

• Microsoft’s cloud strength and AI leadership, particularly with Copilot, position it for growth, though its current valuation likely reflects these expectations, necessitating new market drivers.
• The company faces increasing pressure on efficiency metrics like gross margin and free cash flow due to significant, long-term AI infrastructure investments.
• We suggest a tactical approach to capitalize on anticipated stable price movements, leveraging current market conditions and implied volatility.