This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): An Impending KKR Takeunder?
- On 19 December, Bloomberg reported that KKR has emerged as a frontrunner to privatise Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), but “the tender offer price may be lower than the current price.”
- Since the first Bloomberg article on 27 May, Taiyo’s shares are up 84% vs. the median peers’ shares, which are up 62%. Therefore, the shares reflect some takeover premium.
- Based on the medium-term management plan, which is likely KKR’s base case, I estimate a tender offer of around JPY4,624, 1.2% below the last close.
2. Aimed Bio Set for KOSDAQ 150 Fast-Entry: Selvas AI Faces Exit
- Aimed Bio (Dec 4 IPO) averages KRW 3.81tn mkt cap, 1.52tn free-float, clearing KOSDAQ 150 fast-entry hurdles vs #30 Pearl Abyss (2.40tn).
- Selvas AI exits KOSDAQ 150; KRX announces Aimed Bio fast-entry after tomorrow’s close, effective next trading day post front-month KOSPI 200 futures expiry, March 13.
- Aimed Bio faces ~0.3–0.4x DTV, Selvas AI ~1.0–1.2x DTV outflows; key alpha likely at fast-entry announcement, prompting a potential post-close setup tomorrow.
3. March KOSPI Size Rebalance: Sanity-Check for Front-Run Angles
- LARGE stands at 99 post-HD Hyundai Mipo merger; March sees 5 into LARGE (including Samsung Epis), 4 to MID, with top movers comfortably above cutoff and MID gaps watchable.
- Two points: any names riding carryover rally momentum and mid-cap flows rising on sector rotation; LARGE candidates are hitting a pause phase, while top MID movers show clear rebound.
- Distortion risks should ease by T-1M; if sector rotation ramps, price action could occur earlier than usual—worth monitoring.
4. Doosan Corp To Sell 18.05% Stake in Doosan Robotics for 948 Billion Won
- On 23 December, Doosan Corp (000150 KS) announced that it plans to sell an 18.05% stake (11.7 million shares) in Doosan Robotics (454910 KS) for 948 billion won.
- It appears that the main purpose of sale is to secure adequate capital for Doosan Corp to acquire SK Siltron which is up for sale.
- SK Siltron’s corporate value is estimated at around 5 trillion won, so the transaction size for the 70.6% stake up for sale is expected to 3-4 trillion won+.
5. Merger Arb Mondays (22 Dec) – Dongfeng, Jinke, ANE, ENN, Makino, Pacific Ind, Raksul, Toyota Ind
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), Qube Holdings (QUB AU).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK).
6. OCI Global’s Merger
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In what can only be described as a masterclass in public equity value destruction disguised as strategic transformation, OCI Global (Euronext: OCI) announced on December 9, 2025, a proposed merger with Orascom Construction.
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This merger represents capitulation by independent directors and a betrayal of minority shareholders at an exchange ratio of 0.4634 Orascom Construction shares per OCI share, implying a valuation of approximately €3.73 per OCI share, prior to a 15% withholding tax. Post-tax, it is worth €3.17 on a stock trading at €3.00.
- The deal delivers a cash-rich, debt-free liquidating balance sheet into the hands of a controlling shareholder at a deep discount while stranding minority shareholders in illiquid foreign-listed paper with tax leakage.
7. KT Treasury Burn: Flow Distortion & Sticky ADR Premium Trade Angle
- Structural foreign-cap tightness blocks ADR issuance, disabling arb and making KT’s ADR premium sticky and persistently elevated, especially in high-vol premium expansion phases.
- KT’s ADR premium ranged ~0–10% this year, trending higher when local shares sold off, then reversing lower as onshore prices turned up into year-end.
- KT’s gradual treasury burn tied to foreign flows may distort onshore trading and cap upside, while ADR premiums stay structurally pinned, creating a clear window for underlying/ADR trades.
8. A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 19 Dec 2025): Hs Underperform Again, Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly
- Hs within the liquid AH pair universe UNDER-performed As on average by 0.87%. Beautiful Skew behaved BADLY. Spreads were a bit all over the place.
- Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly positive (+11-13bp). Low H/A “beta” helps. Stay the Beautiful Skew course.
- The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free for all SK readers.
9. Korea Small Cap Gem #51: Hanssem (Cancellation of 29.5% of Outstanding Shares)
- After the market close on 22 December, Hanssem Co Ltd (009240 KS) announced that it will cancel all of its 6.933 million treasury shares (29.5% of outstanding shares).
- The fact that this share cancellation is a whopping 29.5% of outstanding shares is likely to result in a sharply higher share price for Hanssem in the next several days.
- We believe that this massive treasury shares cancellation is likely to have a significantly positive impact on Hanssem’s share price in the next several days/weeks.
10. HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 19 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Net Buying, but High-Div SOEs Sold
- HK$82bn+/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$90+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down. Net rebounded to +HK$16bn.
- Relatively high div low vol SOEs were net sold. Again. This is getting heavy. It matters because some have less international buying support (they are Trump military names).
- The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
