This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
Receive this weekly newsletter keeping 45k+ investors in the loop
1. Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): IFM Makes Its Move
- On the 8th June 2022, IFM Global Infrastructure announced a 15% stake Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), a US/Europe toll-road play, and subsequently floated a NBIO, which ultimately came to nought.
- IFM continued to accumulate shares, and on the 17th November 2025, announced it had added 2.48%, and held 35.03%.
- IFM has now launched a A$4.75/share Offer cash Offer, increasing to A$5.10/share (best & final) IF it secures 45%, or more, of shares out. Atlas may still reject terms.
2. Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP): Murakami Adds as Tosei/GIC Goes for Broke
- Tosei Corp (8923 JP)/GIC is attempting to use the Bain/MCJ playbook by indicating that the Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP) price and closing date (18 May) are final.
- However, Tosei/GIC is unlikely to repeat Bain’s success, particularly given that Murakami entities’ filing today shows that its ownership increased to 22.75%.
- It is likely the tender will fail. Murakami is likely looking to initiate an auction for all or part of Sankei RE post-deal break, replicating the FMH real estate auction.
3. Kakaku.com (2371 JP): Thoughts on a Potential EQT Privatisation Offer
- On 23 April, Bloomberg reported that EQT (EQT SS) is considering a takeover of Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), resulting in the last close being 29.7% above the undisturbed price.
- The shareholder structure is conducive to a privatisation bid. The three substantial shareholders would entertain an attractive offer, despite having differing end goals.
- The Bloomberg article did not disclose the potential offer price. My analysis suggests an offer price around JPY3,000, 9.1% above the last close.
4. Atlas Arteria (ALX AU): Patience Runs Out as IFM Launches a Takeover Offer
- IFM has launched an off-market takeover offer for Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) at a base consideration of A$4.75, which will increase to A$5.10 if IFM holds 45% stake.
- The offer is subject to several conditions. The waiver of third-party rights related to the change of control condition is the most problematic.
- The maximum offer is the best and final. While the Board is likely to recommend that shareholders reject the offer, the maximum offer’s acceptance threshold can still be satisfied.
5. European Lithium (EUR AU): Critical Metals (CRML US) Firms Reverse Takeover
- European Lithium (EUR AU)‘s ~34.4% held Critical Metals (CRML US) has announced a non-binding reverse takeover via a Scheme scrip deal.
- CRML intends to issue 0.035 new CRML shares for each EUR share. The implied value per CRML scrip is A$0.58/share. EUR shareholders will hold ~45% of the combined entity.
- A completed merger sees 100% of Tanbreez Rare Earth project under one roof. Exclusive due diligence to run until around the 7th May. EUR is up 53% as I type.
6. Creation of Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings, Impact on Galleria and Vision, & NAV of Hanwha Corp
- Hanwha Group plans to create a new holding company called Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings which will be headed by Kim Dong-Sun (third son of Hanwha Group Chairman Kim Seung-Yeon).
- The newly established entity will be incorporated on 1 August (the spin-off date). The listing date for Hanwha Machinery & Service Holdings is 25 August.
- My NAV valuation of Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) is 238,189 won which is 81% higher than current price.
7. European Lithium (EUR AU): Reverse Takeover?
- European Lithium (EUR AU), which holds a (estimated) ~34.4% stake in Critical Metals (CRML US), the mining operator of projects in Austria, Greenland, and Ireland, is currently suspended.
- The rumour mill suggest CRML will make an offer for its parent. CRML recently received government approval to control 92% of the Tanbreez rare earths project in Greenland
- Those same rumours are indicating a A$0.58/share, or a 104% premium to European Lithium’s last close.
8. Merger Arb Mondays (27 Apr) – Makino, Skyworth, ENN, Changhong Jiahua, Qoria, Qube, Emmerson
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK), Qoria (QOR AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Humm Group (HUM AU), Changhong Jiahua Holdings (3991 HK), China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Magnetic Resources Nl (MAU AU).
9. Asia-Pac M&A, April 2026 Wrap: Atlas Arteria, European Lithium, OOh!Media, Global Ltd, Taiyo Holding
- For April 2026, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7bn.
- The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~56%, and a year-to-date average of 45%.
- The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.
10. OOh!Media (OML AU): PEP’s Opportunistic Tilt
- OOh!Media (OML AU), the No.1 player in Australia’s outdoor advertising, has announced an NBIO, by way of a Scheme, from PE-outfit Pacific Equity Partners (PEP).
- Subject to completion of satisfactory DD, PEP is offering A$1.40/share, a 65% premium to last close. Apart from shareholder approval, the transaction requires FIRB and NZ’s OIO signing off.
- OML’s share price was down 35% YTD. Tony Faure recently stepped down as Chair. CEO James Taylor assumed the role just five months ago. Yes, timing is opportunistic.
