This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. Kioxia (285A JP) Placement: Limited Passive Buying & Big Runup Opens Up More Downside
- Bain Capital is looking to place 36m shares of Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) to overseas investors at a 7-9% discount to the last close of the stock.
- The stock has run up a lot since its IPO with the last leg driven by inclusion in a global index that took place at the close on Friday.
- Toshiba (6502 JP) had already been selling stock, and the Bain selling could take the stock lower, especially with limited passive buying in the short-term to support the big runup.
2. Curator’s Cut: Powering Down CATL, Iron Ore Plays & Japan Consumer Consolidation
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma.
- In this cut, we review CATL’s H-share lock-up expiry, iron ore equity opportunities in the face of Simandou’s expected supply, and the accelerating consolidation in Japan’s consumer sector.
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.
3. National Storage REIT (NSR AU) In Trading Halt Ahead Of Possible Brookfield/GIC Tilt
- Reportedly, Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC will make an Offer for National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Australia and New Zealand’s largest landlord of self-storage sites .
- The AFR is reporting that Brookfield/GIC are on the cusp of launching a bid around NTA. NSR entered into a trading halt this morning.
- Earlier this year, key peer Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) fielded an NBIO from Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) at a ~3% premium to NTA; however, Ki/PSA ultimately walked.
4. Qube (QUB AU): Macquarie’s Lobs NBIO
- Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
- That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
- Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.
5. [Quiddity Index] Bengo4.com (6027 JP) To TSE Prime and TOPIX Inclusion
- Back in mid-August, Bengo4.Com Inc (6027 JP) (“Bengoshi.com”) announced that it had applied to transfer to TSE Prime. 3+mos later, today it announced it will move on 4 Dec 2025.
- That sets up a TOPIX inclusion for end-January 2026 and then a likely upweight at end-April 2026.
- There is no accompanying offering, and the float is likely small. But the inclusion displaces the current active base. And there’s at least one large holder selling recently.
6. Korea Dividend Tax Cut: Eligibility Criteria & Market Impact on Large Caps, Including Samsung Prefs
- Market eyed 25% top rate, but 30% is still punchy; <100 people hit it, lower than before, giving big shareholders incentive to rotate back into dividends.
- The new regime hits only companies with 25% payout last year and +10% YoY dividend: lower than the original draft, and the 10% bump is a solid positive.
- Companies >5tn KRW with ≥25% payout last year must boost dividends +10% YoY to get the tax cut; Samsung could add ~1tn KRW, potentially easing its pref discount.
7. A Tender Offer of 10% Stake in Gabia by Align Partners Asset Management
- After the market close on 24 November, it was announced that Align Partners is conducting a partial tender offer of a 10% stake in Gabia Inc (079940 KS).
- Tender offer price is 33,000 won (20% higher than current price). Tender offer amount is 44.7 billion won.
- If Align Partners successfully completes this tender offer, its stake would rise to 19.03%. Plus, the combined stakes of Align Partners and Miri Capital would be 42.99%.
8. HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 21 Nov 2025) – BIG Net Buy on Lower Gross Flows. BABA Bought
- HK$100bn a day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity with US$600mm+ of net buying on average. Net flows continue to be impressive. SOEs/Energy/Financials dominate.
- Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could up the pace of things.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
9. [Japan Activism] Mandom (4917) Holders Get an Early Win as MBO Bidder CVC Bumps 29%
- Today late in the afternoon session, the Nikkei reported that the MBO price would be bumped by “about 30%”. The stock popped 4.6%.
- Post-Close, the deal is bumped from ¥1,960 to ¥2,520 (+29%). Activist holders Murakami Group with 21.4% and Hibiki Path Advisors with 5.5% have agreed to tender.
- With the two main activists publicly engaged now agreed to tender, this looks like a done deal.
10. [Japan Activism/M&A] SilverCape Renews Its Effort on Digital HD (2389 JP) To Resolve Board Complaint
- Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) jumped today after spending a week or more at levels just above the revised Tender Price of Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP).
- SilverCape had promised to bid ¥2,380 against Hakuhodo’s ¥1,970 and the Company responded by threatening a Poison Pill against SilverCape, for relatively spurious reasons (as discussed here).
- Hakuhodo bid slightly more, and lowered its minimum, thereby nearly ensuring their success. HOWEVER…. SilverCape’s CIO interviewed yesterday promised a higher price. The stock popped today. But…
