This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. UK Politics: Burnham Down The House
- Andy Burnham seems set to become UK Prime Minister next month after Keir Starmer resigned and Wes Streeting decided to back Burnham instead of launching a campaign.
- Labour’s hopes are higher, but the self-styled King of the North faces the same lack of support for specific changes. A core vote strategy would extend the slide to socialism.
- The fiscal rules now have rolling horizons, allowing more deficit-fuelled spending and even nationalisation. Labour’s death throes can hit harder with Burnham in charge.
2. NPS: Net Seller of Korean Stocks in the Past Month (What Is It Buying and Selling?)
- NPS and other local pension funds net sold approximately 2.5 trillion won in KOSPI included stocks in the past month (as of 23 June).
- Top stocks net sold by the NPS and local pension funds in the past one month include Samsung Electro Mechanics, SK Square, and Mirae Asset Securities.
- Top stocks net purchased by the NPS and local pension funds in the past one month include Naver, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Mobis.
3. BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Market Update (6/22/26)
- The Hong Kong market continued its downtrend over the last month. The technology, materials, consumer, and healthcare sectors have declined in 2026, with the industrials sector showing the best performance.
- Dividend and value factors have outperformed in 2026, while growth and momentum have declined.
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK) was initiated as OVERWEIGHT by Barclays, with a target price implying 35% upside.
4. Sentiment On Yo-Yo Diet
- Services sentiment rebounded in 5/8 of the flash PMIs, converging the cumulative fall since February with the hit from the 2025 tariff shock, but UK depression deepened.
- Revisions will probably raise these values again, but political turmoil will keep weighing on the UK, even if sentiment loses the same ground each month, like a yo-yo diet.
- Global unemployment data has been stable so far, signalling demand destruction is insufficient to balance the excess inflation, supporting recent rate hike decisions.
5. CHINA/US: Trump Wages Another Losing War, This Time in Tech!
- The Trump Administration is determined to continue and wage a “tech war” against China. The battlefield has expanded beyond the chips to power AI and the equipment to produce them.
- The Pentagon’s Section 1260H “Chinese Military Company” (CMC) list expanded significantly in early 2026, now encompassing some of China’s most prominent technology and platform companies.
- In response to US actions, China added 10 US defense contractors to its export control list, targeting drone, robotics, aerospace, and strategic minerals sectors to prohibit exports of rare earths.
6. Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (June 2026)
- The Hong Kong market continues to underperform as investors focus on semiconductor investments in North Asian markets. The market continues to trade at a significant valuation discount to other markets.
- Dividend yield and value factors have outperformed YTD, while growth stocks have declined the most. The industrials sector is the best-performing YTD, while tech, healthcare, and consumer sectors decline.
- Dongyue (189 HK) share price relative to the MSCI All Asia index has broken new highs. The surge in shares is attributed to President Trump’s easing of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) regulations.
7. Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 19 June 2026
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.75%, but it was a surprise that new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, struck a relatively hawkish tone in the post-meeting press conference, suggesting that inflation was still a problem. In the mean time, the Taiwanese central bank again left interest rates at 2% despite the fact that money supply growth is way above the target range.
- Bank of Japan, Bank Indonesia, and the Philippines Central Bank all raised interest rates by 25pbs this week. Bank of Japan is seriously behind the curve while Bank Indonesia and Philippines central bank are in trouble with both inflation and exchange rate pressures.
- A few Chinese data points are showing signs of softening. Retail sales fell 0.6% YoY in May, a pause after a strong start of this year. Property investment continued to contract, by 16% YoY in May which is pretty significant number in a sector that really should be stabilizing by now, but continues to weaken.
8. Thailand: Holding Through The Shock
- The BOT held the policy rate at 1.00% as expected, while signalling a high bar for near‑term hikes despite a temporary inflation overshoot.
- Sub‑trend, uneven growth and weak SME credit make the MPC favour an accommodative stance while watching inflation expectations closely.
- Future rate moves hinge on cost‑push shocks, baht‑driven imported inflation and whether disinflation turns the real policy rate too restrictive.
9. HEW: Leveraged Vibes
- Vibes are driving markets, with retail monkeys seemingly set to destroy Korean equities next, fuelled by leverage. Meanwhile, Iranian attacks are ignored as old news.
- Physical oil products remain expensive, even as financial investors price the problem out. Sentiment is recovering too, although the UK suffers from its socialist slide.
- Next week’s unemployment data in the US and EA, plus flash HICP, are the main events. Lending data from the ECB and BoE, and Friday’s DMP, are our second-tier highlights.
10. Banxico Pauses, Caution Prevails
- Banxico paused at 6.50%, matching consensus, signalling a shift to a higher‑for‑longer stance as core inflation eases only gradually.
- With upside inflation risks and expectations still above target, further cuts hinge on sustained core disinflation and a stable peso.
- Future rate moves will track services inflation, global conditions and Fed policy, keeping Mexico’s real rates restrictive for now.
