This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Macro and Cross Asset Strategy on Smartkarma.
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1. HEM: Sep-26 Views & Challenges
- The energy supply shock is squeezing prices and not destroying much demand. UK excesses are backloaded and underappreciated.
- A warm winter could avoid pressures intensifying. Yet monetary conditions and slack look more balanced than dovishly assumed.
- We see hikes from the BoE in Nov-26 and ECB in Sep-26. Market pricing has probably gone too far given dovish policymaker bias.
2. Recent Bloodbath Margin Calls in the Korean Stock Market – 0.36 Million Margin Accounts Liquidated
- In this insight, I provide a detailed analysis of the recent major bloodbath margin calls and liquidations in the Korean stock market, especially in the summer of 2026.
- There are about 1.5 million active margin accounts in Korea, of which more than 1.2 million margin accounts received margin call triggers and 0.36 million have been liquidated this summer.
- It may take more time for retail Korean investors to regain confidence and re-enter the domestic market more actively due to recent trauma from their margin calls and liquidations.
3. China Equities: Relative Upside in Offshore Vs. Onshore Stocks
- Offshore relative value: We tested 12-month relative returns across onshore vs. offshore, and both vs. EM. Offshore China is the oversold leg, driven by its own weakness rather than onshore strength.
- AI rotation: The performance gap reflects capital favoring the onshore industrial upgrades vs. offshore consumption. Re-rating requires offshore earnings pickup regardless of how cheap the multiple looks.
- Stock selection:MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX) is dominated by Tencent (700 HK) and Alibaba (9988 HK) while dispersion across the index is wide. We built an investable bucket.
4. HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (August 2026)
- HK Alpha portfolio gained 3.45% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 2.67%. Since inception, the portfolio has outperformed HK indexes by 60% to 84%. HK ALPHA is up 14.35% YTD.
- The Sharpe ratio stands at 1.21, compared with a benchmark of 0.68 since inception. This higher Sharpe ratio is driven by excess alpha, which represents more than 50% of returns.
- The portfolio gained in the healthcare, industrial, and technology sectors in August, while utilities and telecom exposure dragged on performance.
5. EA: Rates Rising Into September
- EA inflation’s 31bp rise in August to 3.3% more than completed the reversal of June’s premature optimism. Benign food and goods price rises aren’t seen in services and core.
- Resurgent inflationary pressures reinforce the ECB’s July signal that it would hike again in September. Core inflation is too high, and upside risks remain.
- Demonstrated vigilance should help preserve the anchor of expectations at 2%, avoiding the BoE’s ongoing failure. Two hikes should be sufficient if a winter squeeze is avoided.
6. HEW: September Steps To Hike
- Boisterous US labour market data move the Fed a step closer to a September hike, with next week’s CPI release now pivotal, while rising EA inflation preserves the ECB’s path.
- The RBNZ hiked and signalled further normalising steps, while central banks in Canada and Malaysia held rates, albeit with the odds of tightening rising in the former.
- Beyond next week’s ECB rate hike and Friday’s US inflation highlight, we await GDP data from the UK and the EA, along with the latter’s final Q2 employment data.
7. Canada Holds As Inflation Risks Rise
- The BoC held at 2.25% as expected, but highlighted higher inflation risks from energy and tariffs, raising the odds of future tightening.
- Broadening recovery and excess supply justify a wait‑and‑see stance, while trade uncertainty could cap growth and extend the hold.
- Rate cuts look unlikely while headline CPI stays near 3%; multiple hikes remain possible if price pressures spread beyond energy.
8. Japanese Banks: Rotating Beneath the Surface
- Return dispersion among banks is wide enough to select on. Individual outcomes range from Fukui Bank (8362 JP) at +264% to Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) at -23%.
- Leadership is rotating. Money is moving from small cheap regionals back toward larger names.
- We constructed a barbel portfolio. Leg A holds six trend-confirmed momentum leaders. Leg B holds six accelerating laggards.
9. Korea Small Cap Gem Insights – Relative Outperformance Vs KOSDAQ
- In this insight, I provide the data analysis regarding the relative performance of my Korea Small Cap Gem series insights (for 27 KOSDAQ listed companies) versus KOSDAQ last two years.
- These 27 companies’ share prices are up on average 3.9%, 11.5%, and 13.8% over one week, one month, and three months, respectively from one day prior to their insight publications.
- I compared these performances versus KOSDAQ which was up on average 0.1%, 1.2%, and 3.4%, respectively from one day prior to these insight publications (same time periods).
10. RBNZ Hikes Towards Conditional Endgame
- The RBNZ’s widely expected 25bp OCR hike to 2.75% extends gradual normalisation towards a ~3% neutral rate, with a conditional tightening bias beyond.
- External economists are split on the terminal rate: some see 3–3.25%, others up to 4%, highlighting a genuinely data‑dependent path for future hikes.
- Fragile domestic demand and export‑led resilience mean the RBNZ will weigh inflation persistence against growth risks before moving rates much above neutral.
