DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Asset allocation and country/region investment strategy

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we analyzed the different share price movements of SK Telecom relative to KOSPI from 2005 to 2022 when foreign ownership remained above 99%.</li>
<li>Once MSCI announces the potential deletion of SK Telecom from MSCI Korea Index in the next several weeks, there could be some short term temporary weakness on SK Telecom.</li>
<li>Over a longer period, SK Telecom is well poised to outperform the market amid the market's rotation into value stocks and the company's strong earnings and cash flow growth.</li>
</ul>

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, New Economy, IPOs, Events

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/china-jinmao-holdings-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China Jinmao Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/guangzhou-r-f-properties-h' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Guangzhou R&F Properties</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunac China Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/greenland-hong-kong-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Greenland Hong Kong Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-evergrande-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Evergrande</a></li></ol>and more...

Charles Macgregor

Head of Asia

<ul>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate Group (IAP AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval from shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB, OIO, SARB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 29 June. </li>
<li>We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 15 July implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 1.4% and 9.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The bleak retail performance of the previous two months reversed to a surprising extent as sales surged by 1.4%. Demand for booze dominated falling non-food store sales.</li>
<li>GDP seems only slightly less weak in Q2 as this bounce will probably prove short-lived around Easter. Falling real incomes squeezes sale volumes rather than raising values. </li>
<li>Crashing consumer confidence has now reached record lows in contrast to the business optimism that seems set for a rude awakening as customers baulk at higher prices.</li>
</ul>

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

<ul>
<li>Fed Chair Powell eyes March to raise the federal funds rate, but pressure to delay has risen. The Fed is keen not to fall behind the inflation curve in 2022.</li>
<li>Inflation forecasts could be critical in determining whether Fed policy guidance requires further hawkish adjustment. Labour market developments will, however, not be entirely overlooked in terms of adjusting policy settings. </li>
<li>Fed policy lowered the equity risk premium and boosted equity valuations. Lack of Fed intervention in US Treasuries means outsized US equity portfolio gains will depend on stock picking.   </li>
</ul>

Said Desaque

Global Economist

<ul>
<li>Foreign investors hold 106.51m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> versus a limit of 107.23m shares. There are only 723k more shares (1 day of ADV) available for foreign buying.</li>
<li>MSCI will delete <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> from its indices once the foreign room reaches zero, while FTSE will likely reduce the investability weight in two tranches of 5% each.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-telecom-co-ltd-bbccd86c-474d-4a4d-946d-10e911a225a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:395:1" rel="noopener">SK Telecom (017670 KS)</a> could continue underperforming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp (030200 KS)</a> in the short-term due to passive selling and inability of foreign investors to buy the stock.</li>
</ul>

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/Events/Delta One

<ul>
<li>Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)'s deletion seems pretty much a foregone conclusion as its average float-adjusted market cap on May 3-19 is way below the next one in line.</li>
<li>Shinhan Financial (055550 KS) is the one to replace Celltrion based on the numbers so far. There is close to a ₩1T gap with the next one, POSCO (005490 KS).</li>
<li>In this rebalancing, the flow impact of the addition/deletion is even more significant. So, their share price fluctuations on June 10 will likely be more substantial than last time.</li>
</ul>

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

<ul>
<li>The EGM of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a> today approved the BHP Petroleum merger in overwhelming fashion. 98.66% FOR. </li>
<li>They did not approve of the Climate Report the board submitted to vetting by shareholders for the first time. That got 51% "support."</li>
<li>But now that's done, people will talk about flows. So far the trade has worked but now time to think about how far to stretch it.</li>
</ul>

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woolworths-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:500:1" rel="noopener">Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)</a> proposes to acquire all shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mydeal-com-au-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30939:1" rel="noopener">MyDeal.com.au Ltd (MYD AU)</a> other than those held by Sean Senvirtne and other key management personnel.</li>
<li>MyDeal shareholders will receive $1.05/share in cash, a punchy 62.8% premium to last close, but just 5% above its 2020 IPO price.</li>
<li>This proposal is being done by way of a Scheme with expected completion in Q3/Q4 2022.</li>
</ul>

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Most of the countries that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a> has assets in have their borders already opened. </li>
<li>The full impact of the reopening will only be seen in the subsequent quarters thus it is almost certain that next quarter's result will be better than the past one.</li>
<li>The upside from privatization is mostly priced in but the recovery of the business is real albeit potentially gradual. </li>
</ul>

United States

Hawkish Fed in 2022: Boosting the Importance of Stock Picking as Valuations Receive Less Support