European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa / Event-Driven

Grupo Catalana Occidente, S.A., through subsidiaries, offers insurance.  The Company offers life, accident, health, automobile, marine, freight, and fire insurance.

<ul>
<li>Inocsa secures ~98% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-catalana-occidente-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21272:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM)</a> after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.</li>
<li>With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.</li>
<li>GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.</li>
</ul>


Inocsa secures ~98% of Grupo Catalana Occidente Sa (GCO SM) after 94.27% acceptance, completing the take-private process and removing any remaining deal risk.
With Spain’s 90/90 thresholds exceeded, a squeeze-out at €49.75 is now available, leaving minimal optionality for remaining minorities.
GCO trades just below terms as liquidity evaporates; the spread has closed and the trade moves to passive cash settlement mid-December.


Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Singapore Market Roundup, Singapore Market Roundup

Singapore Market Roundup

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Analysts gain confidence in DFI's retail outlook after first investor day.</li><li>DBS downgrades Sheng Siong to 'hold' after share price gains from SG60 vouchers.</li><li>Tickrs Financial rates Nanofilm as 'buy' with a target price of 75 cents.</li></ul>

Analysts gain confidence in DFI's retail outlook after first investor day.DBS downgrades Sheng Siong to 'hold' after share price gains from SG60 vouchers.Tickrs Financial rates Nanofilm as 'buy' with a target price of 75 cents.

Singapore Market Roundup (05-Dec-2025): Analysts boost confidence in DFI's retail outlook

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Negara Indonesia Persero / Equity Bottom-Up

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is a state-owned bank that conducts commercial and consumer banking services.

<ul><li>We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.</li><li>We expect a slight increase in CoC of 1.1% in FY26F driven by higher portion of riskier segments and cautious stance in micro and consumer.</li><li>We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with an ROE of 11.8% and CoE of 11.9%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp4,700, i.e., maintain BUY rating.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.We expect a slight increase in CoC of 1.1% in FY26F driven by higher portion of riskier segments and cautious stance in micro and consumer.We roll forward our valuation to FY26F with an ROE of 11.8% and CoE of 11.9%, resulting in a lower TP of Rp4,700, i.e., maintain BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) Cautious View on NIM Despite Cost of Fund Improvements

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
Contrarian Cashflows is built around the principles of respect, honesty, open-mindedness and a touch of humour. Please consider these principles in any engagement interaction with me, other readers and the content on this blog. Misbehaviour is not tolerated.
If you want to reach out to me directly, the best way is via LinkedIn, Twitter or email. You can find the details at my homepage contrariancashflows.com

<ul><li>A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets.</li><li>With the recent introduction of private equity investments for retail investors in my home country of Germany, I’ve been repeatedly approached by friends and family about my opinion on these products.</li><li>In Germany, two neo-brokers, LIQID and Trade Republic, recently introduced private equity (PE) investments for retail investors starting from as little as €1 per trade (in the case of Trade Republic), while marketing returns between 12% and 14% annually with low volatility.</li></ul>

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets.With the recent introduction of private equity investments for retail investors in my home country of Germany, I’ve been repeatedly approached by friends and family about my opinion on these products.In Germany, two neo-brokers, LIQID and Trade Republic, recently introduced private equity (PE) investments for retail investors starting from as little as €1 per trade (in the case of Trade Republic), while marketing returns between 12% and 14% annually with low volatility.

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Steadfast Group Ltd is a provider of services to broker businesses across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. The Company has equity interests in insurance broker businesses, underwriting agencies and other complementary businesses.

<ul>
<li>First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">AUB (AUB AU)</a>, an insurance "matchmaker": <a href="https://skr.ma/J2CwJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)</a>. Talks <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20251201/pdf/06sr2bsh6yv802.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ceased</a> this week. </li>
<li>Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a>, is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.</li>
<li>Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. </li>
</ul>


First, EQT, then CVC joined, in a A$45/share NBIO for AUB (AUB AU), an insurance "matchmaker": CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU). Talks ceased this week. 
Reportedly, AUB’s larger insurance rival, Steadfast (SDF AU), is now attracting PE interest, such as Blackstone.
Steadfast is down ~25% from its recent high following a workplace complaint towards CEO/MD/founder Robert Kelly - now concluded on "a confidential basis", with Kelly resuming his roles. 


Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

Bullish Banks
Closing that Underweight

Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Inocsa now controls ~98% of Catalana Occidente after a 94% acceptance rate, enabling a squeeze-out at €49.75. Delisting is imminent and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Singapore Market Roundup (05-Dec-2025): Analysts boost confidence in DFI's retail outlook

Analysts are optimistic about DFI's retail outlook post-investor day. DBS downgrades Sheng Siong to 'hold' after share price rise; Tickrs rates...

Singapore Market Roundup

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) Cautious View on NIM Despite Cost of Fund Improvements

We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.

BRI Danareksa Research

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets. With the recent introduction of private equity investments...

Contrarian Cashflows

Inocsa Secures 98% of Catalana Occidente; Squeeze-Out Now in Play

Inocsa now controls ~98% of Catalana Occidente after a 94% acceptance rate, enabling a squeeze-out at €49.75. Delisting is imminent and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Singapore Market Roundup (05-Dec-2025): Analysts boost confidence in DFI's retail outlook

Analysts are optimistic about DFI's retail outlook post-investor day. DBS downgrades Sheng Siong to 'hold' after share price rise; Tickrs rates...

Singapore Market Roundup

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI.IJ) Cautious View on NIM Despite Cost of Fund Improvements

We forecast a modest net profit growth of 1.8% yoy in FY26F on lower NIM, driven by softer EA yield amid lower rate and tight competition.

BRI Danareksa Research

RW-11-25: Should I Invest in Private Equity?

A lot of ink has been spilled on the pros and cons of investing in “private” assets. With the recent introduction of private equity investments...

Contrarian Cashflows

Steadfast (SDF AU): Suitors Circle As Share Price Languishes After Internal Complaint

There is, as yet, no Offer. Steadfast's share price has failed to recover from the internal complaint. EQTCVC walking from AUB does no favours....

David Blennerhassett