APAC Capital Markets, Guzzler Chronicles

Anshul Trivedi

APAC Capital Markets

Guzzler Chronicles

Why "The Guzzler Chronicles"? This note sets out my current state of mind, and that view rests on several conditions: where yields sit, which way inflation is moving, how concentrated earnings growth is, and how stretched the charts are. Those conditions will change as the data and my analysis change, and my view will change with them. This is the first instalment of a series. Later notes will go deeper into individual topics raised here and will refer back to this one as the baseline.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. </li>
<li>Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. </li>
<li>Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t</li>
</ul>


Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. 
Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. 
Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t


Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Democrats are favoured to win Congress, but even a sweep cannot remove Trump or overturn his vetoes, tariffs and pardons. Expect investigations and friction, not reversal.</li>
<li>Losing Congress will not calm Trump's style; it redirects it. With no re-election to protect, expect him to be contained at home and unleashed abroad, as in 2019.</li>
<li>Unlike 2019, the Fed is hiking and the 10-year is above 5%. Own cheap index protection, a curve steepener, defence and staples, and Asia hedges to January.</li>
</ul>


Democrats are favoured to win Congress, but even a sweep cannot remove Trump or overturn his vetoes, tariffs and pardons. Expect investigations and friction, not reversal.
Losing Congress will not calm Trump's style; it redirects it. With no re-election to protect, expect him to be contained at home and unleashed abroad, as in 2019.
Unlike 2019, the Fed is hiking and the 10-year is above 5%. Own cheap index protection, a curve steepener, defence and staples, and Asia hedges to January.


U.S. Midterms Elections: What a Trump Without Congress Means for Markets

<ul>
<li>The current US 10-year is close to its 64-year median. The level is normal, but the speed at which it got there is not. </li>
<li>Expect a speed bump toward 5.0-5.1%, but don't expect a U-turn: a US$2tn deficit, AI borrowers and fading foreign demand keep the floor under yields high. </li>
<li>Stay NEUTRAL: scale in below 5.00%, de-risk equities above 5.50%. Stocks' valuation cushion over bonds is gone; earnings must carry the index. </li>
</ul>


The current US 10-year is close to its 64-year median. The level is normal, but the speed at which it got there is not. 
Expect a speed bump toward 5.0-5.1%, but don't expect a U-turn: a US$2tn deficit, AI borrowers and fading foreign demand keep the floor under yields high. 
Stay NEUTRAL: scale in below 5.00%, de-risk equities above 5.50%. Stocks' valuation cushion over bonds is gone; earnings must carry the index. 


US 10-Year Treasury Yields: Back to Its 64-Year Median, Too Fast. Expect a Speed Bump, Not a U-Turn

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.</li>
<li>DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.</li>
<li>Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.</li>
</ul>


DC company share prices are rolling over, foreshadowing increasing pressure on their hyperscaler customers.  Since the July swoon in semiconductor stocks, the DC sector has underperformed both hyperscalers and semiconductors.
DC players face strong headwinds on multiple fronts, including high leverage/circular financing, supply chain delays, public opposition, and questions about aggressive forecasts of future compute demand.
Leverage is the most prominent risk in the DC sector, with questions looming about completion dates and customers' ability to meet their contracted offtake agreements.


DATA CENTER SECTOR: From the Tip of the Spear to Canary in the Coal Mine

Director, Sentiment Matters

Lars Kreckel

Director

The mood of the market, mapped and decoded

Sentiment Matters

Investor sentiment is the overall mood of investors - how bullish or bearish they are on a market or asset.

Sentiment is part of every investor’s investment process. Whether for macro investors, stock pickers, or thematic investors, it matters whether a position is consensus or contrarian.

<ul>
<li>
Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.</li>
<li>
Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.</li>
<li>
Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.</li>
</ul>



Buy Side Sentiment Tracker: we aggregate asset-allocation views from 54 top asset managers across 73 assets, based on 1,400+ individual views.

Bullish, but not extreme: Risk appetite is high and rising, yet equity downgrades and resilient sovereign demand show the Buy Side is far from universally risk-on.

Max Contrarian: Infrastructure, Industrial Metals and Gold are most popular; Swiss Franc, Cash and Consumer Staples are least popular.


Sentiment Matters: Buy Side Sentiment Tracker - October 2026