Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Fiscal consolidation in 2026 was stalled, as increased spending on energy subsidies was only partially offset by petroleum and tax revenue windfalls. </li>
<li>While the macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the budget are credible, the reduction in the deficit ratio is largely driven by nominal growth rather than cash consolidation.</li>
<li>The fiscal rules, however, are slipping. A 3.0% deficit target is no longer achievable, and debt is stuck above the statutory target. </li>
</ul>


Fiscal consolidation in 2026 was stalled, as increased spending on energy subsidies was only partially offset by petroleum and tax revenue windfalls. 
While the macroeconomic assumptions underpinning the budget are credible, the reduction in the deficit ratio is largely driven by nominal growth rather than cash consolidation.
The fiscal rules, however, are slipping. A 3.0% deficit target is no longer achievable, and debt is stuck above the statutory target. 


Malaysia Economics: Fiscal Consolidation Stalls in Pre-Election Budget

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.</li>
<li>In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).</li>
<li>Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.</li>
</ul>


FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.
In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).
Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.


Asian Equities: Ferocious Foreign Selling in September and Early October; Only Taiwan Seems Immune

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung printed a record ₩107.4tn Q3 operating profit, in line with the lowered bar, and fell 2.4%. Two record prints in eight days, Micron then Samsung, bought nothing.</li>
<li>Second straight down week: coverage −5.9% as the S&amp;P rose 1.2%. Korea led (KOSPI −5.4%) as Solidigm hired IPO banks; NAND followed spot prices lower; Taiwan held.</li>
<li>Ratings and TPs held. Stay long Micron (TP $1,375), add at ≤$975; hold SK Hynix, no add before Q3 on 27 Oct. Nanya’s 12 Oct margin is next.</li>
</ul>


Samsung printed a record ₩107.4tn Q3 operating profit, in line with the lowered bar, and fell 2.4%. Two record prints in eight days, Micron then Samsung, bought nothing.
Second straight down week: coverage −5.9% as the S&amp;P rose 1.2%. Korea led (KOSPI −5.4%) as Solidigm hired IPO banks; NAND followed spot prices lower; Taiwan held.
Ratings and TPs held. Stay long Micron (TP $1,375), add at ≤$975; hold SK Hynix, no add before Q3 on 27 Oct. Nanya’s 12 Oct margin is next.


SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #15 | 4-10 Oct 2026.

APAC Capital Markets, Guzzler Chronicles

Anshul Trivedi

APAC Capital Markets

Guzzler Chronicles

Why "The Guzzler Chronicles"? This note sets out my current state of mind, and that view rests on several conditions: where yields sit, which way inflation is moving, how concentrated earnings growth is, and how stretched the charts are. Those conditions will change as the data and my analysis change, and my view will change with them. This is the first instalment of a series. Later notes will go deeper into individual topics raised here and will refer back to this one as the baseline.

<ul>
<li>Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. </li>
<li>Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. </li>
<li>Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t</li>
</ul>


Gold: GLD/SPY is +0.35 SD from its 5-year mean, about 31% below the February high and is almost back to mean. 
Beta is "off the charts": SPHB/SPLV is +2.6 SD on the 5-year view, above the +2 SD band and about 3% below the 2 Oct high. 
Central banks remain steady buyers: the World Gold Council expects about 850t in 2026, close to 2025's ~863t


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated short interest is USD1,390m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in CIMB, Press Metal, Gamuda, AMMB, Pentamaster.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Oct 9th. The aggregated short interest is USD1,390m.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in CIMB, Press Metal, Gamuda, AMMB, Pentamaster.


Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Oct 9th): CIMB, Press Metal, Gamuda, AMMB, Pentamaster

Malaysia
Insights on Malaysia

Malaysia Economics: Fiscal Consolidation Stalls in Pre-Election Budget

Malaysia's federal budget for 2027 features tax cuts and spending rises that stall the pace of fiscal repair that, while not destabilising, limits...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian Equities: Ferocious Foreign Selling in September and Early October; Only Taiwan Seems Immune

FIIs sold Asia heavily in September & early October - especially KR, India, ID & TH. TW was sold marginally in September & bought in October. FIIs'...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #15 | 4-10 Oct 2026.

Semiconductor memory are on a downtrend again, despite two record results releases. It now trades on 2027 and any hints of peak earnings fears in...

Mo Aziz

Guzzler Chronicles: Go for Gold?

Oct 14th=the inflation call, and inflation drives risk right now. Gold is back to mean vs SPX with light positioning and offers good entry levels.

Guzzler Chronicles

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Oct 9th): CIMB, Press Metal, Gamuda, AMMB, Pentamaster

We analyzed Bursa Malaysia short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in CIMB, Press Metal, Gamuda, AMMB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM