Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, Basic-Fit hosted a session to provide an update on the Clever Fit acquisition, that was announced at the end of October and completed two weeks later.</li>
<li>At its upcoming CMD, to be hosted on 20 April of next year, the company will provide a detailed update on the acquisition.</li>
<li>At yesterday’s update, Basic-Fit shared some light on the German market and the savings it expects</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Basic-Fit hosted a session to provide an update on the Clever Fit acquisition, that was announced at the end of October and completed two weeks later.
At its upcoming CMD, to be hosted on 20 April of next year, the company will provide a detailed update on the acquisition.
At yesterday’s update, Basic-Fit shared some light on the German market and the savings it expects


Equity Bottom-Up

BE Semiconductor Industries NV / Equity Bottom-Up

BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. produces integrated semiconductor assembly equipment.  The Company designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and services machines that manufacture semiconductor packages, which provide the connection between the chip and other electronic components and protect the chip.  BE also produces automated molding and plating machines, and manufactures leadframes.

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor market strongly upward • Magnum Ice Cream Company | more details on upcoming listing • PostNL / Ahold Delhaize | EUR 2 levy on non-EU parcels effective as of 1 January 2026</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International – ASML Holding – BE Semiconductor Industries | WSTS revises its outlook for worldwide semiconductor market strongly upward • Magnum Ice Cream Company | more details on upcoming listing • PostNL / Ahold Delhaize | EUR 2 levy on non-EU parcels effective as of 1 January 2026

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 4 December (ASM Int'l | ASML | Besi | MICC | PostNL/Ahold Delhaize)

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.</li><li>A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.</li><li>Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.</li></ul><p></p>

The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

<ul><li>A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.</li><li>The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.</li><li>Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.</li></ul><p></p>

A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.

<ul><li>Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.</li><li>Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.</li><li>Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.</li></ul>

Volatile markets and policy guidance washed out, with pricing and forecasts little changed on the month.Bailey is biased to ease, but the BoE is awakening to its inflation problem. It should cut less than dovishly priced.Higher unemployment could move beyond a structural shift from policy to signal a less elevated neutral rate.