Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

SHINKO ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and markets advanced electronic materials, such as semiconductor packages, including leadframes, and PLP(Plastics Laminated Packages).  The Company markets its products worldwide through a network of sales offices in such places as the Philippines, Germany, and Hong Kong.

<ul>
<li>JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.</li>
<li>It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).</li>
<li>Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. </li>
</ul>


JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC. 


Shinko Electric (6967) - All Approvals In, JIC Says "Mid-Feb" So Cash Is 19-21 March?

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.</li>
<li>Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.</li>
<li>DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.</li>
</ul>


Softbank pledging $500bn worth of AI investment over the next 4-years will send JP SPE higher.
Plenty of high-quality semi-related names in Japan yet to recover from last years 4Q sell-off.
DR Horton numbers were a beat, but sold off their AM highs despite the weakening yields. Any sell off a buy the dip change for Sumi Forestry.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Kokusai Electric Corporation manufactures and distributes semiconductor manufacturing systems. The Company produces batch processing systems, single wafer processing systems, and other systems. Kokusai Electric also operates advanced thermal process technology development, training, and other businesses.

<ul>
<li>The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">NKY INDEX</a> in March.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup of shorts in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> as the stock has underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philadelphia-stock-exchange-semiconductor-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32992:1" rel="noopener">Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)</a> by a lot.</li>
<li>The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> changes in March.</li>
</ul>


The lock-up on KKR HKE ends next week, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) should be deleted from a global index end-February and could be added to the NKY INDEX in March.
There has been a buildup of shorts in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) as the stock has underperformed the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX) by a lot.
The global index deletion in February could provide an entry point into a long position ahead of the announcement of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) changes in March.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd. manufactures and markets integrated circuits. The Company provides the following services: wafer manufacturing, wafer probing, assembly and testing, mask production, and design services. TSMC's ICs are used in computer, communication, consumer electronics, automotive, and industrial equipment industries.

<ul><li>Taiwan startup secures military contract for anti-drone tech, expanding manufacturing in mobile sector</li><li>Dixon sees phone sales spike, eyes display fab with India semiconductor incentive</li><li>Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power granted subsidy for OSAT facility, Poland faces US sanctions, Taiwan quake impacts semiconductor production, ByteDance dominates AI chatbot market, Broadcom and Marvell compete in ASIC opportunities</li></ul>

Taiwan startup secures military contract for anti-drone tech, expanding manufacturing in mobile sectorDixon sees phone sales spike, eyes display fab with India semiconductor incentiveSamsung delays DRAM development, CG Power granted subsidy for OSAT facility, Poland faces US sanctions, Taiwan quake impacts semiconductor production, ByteDance dominates AI chatbot market, Broadcom and Marvell compete in ASIC opportunities

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Jan-2025): Taiwan startup wins military deal for anti-drone tech.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.</li>
<li>It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved. </li>
<li>Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.</li>
</ul>



Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed in September 2023. The stock was cheap. It rose sharply, tripling in 9 months. At the ATH, the pre-IPO owners launched a HUGE secondary.
It was like a second IPO. The stock dipped, rallied, plummeted into pricing. Stayed there for two days, and in 6 months, the shares have halved. 
Lockup expiry is next week, and there is a likely large index event in ~10 weeks.


Kokusai Electric (6525) - Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand

Semiconductors
Insights on Semiconductor Supply Chain

Shinko Electric (6967) - All Approvals In, JIC Says "Mid-Feb" So Cash Is 19-21 March?

JIC has come out with a statement saying they expect the Tender Offer to start mid-February. It is 20 days. I see ~56d to completion. "Delayed"...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Jan-2025): Taiwan startup wins military deal for anti-drone tech.

Taiwan startup wins military contract, Dixon expands phone sales, Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power receives subsidy in India, Poland faces...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Kokusai Electric (6525) - Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand

Kokusai is down hard. -65% from June's peak. -50% since KKR Offer Pricing (which was slammed). Shares are cheap to a Peer Basket both on price move...

Travis Lundy

Shinko Electric (6967) - All Approvals In, JIC Says "Mid-Feb" So Cash Is 19-21 March?

JIC has come out with a statement saying they expect the Tender Offer to start mid-February. It is 20 days. I see ~56d to completion. "Delayed"...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Opening the Floodgates to AI Investment

​Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Lock-Up Expiry, Index Deletion, Index Inclusion - It's All Happening

Over the next 2 months, Kokusai Electric has a large lock-up expiry, a near certain index deletion and a potential index inclusion. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (22-Jan-2025): Taiwan startup wins military deal for anti-drone tech.

Taiwan startup wins military contract, Dixon expands phone sales, Samsung delays DRAM development, CG Power receives subsidy in India, Poland faces...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Kokusai Electric (6525) - Upcoming Lockup Expiry And BIG Index Demand

Kokusai is down hard. -65% from June's peak. -50% since KKR Offer Pricing (which was slammed). Shares are cheap to a Peer Basket both on price move...

Travis Lundy

Softbank's $500bn AI investment pledge to boost JP SPE, high-quality semi-related Japanese names may recover. DR Horton sold off AM highs, may...