Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore and Dry Bulk Freight

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

<ul>
<li>Year-End seasonality remains a powerful tailwind for iron ore, as post October holiday steel output recovery historically drives the market’s strongest gains.</li>
<li>Pre-Holiday inventory rebuilding by Chinese steel mills continues creating short-term demand distortions, opening repeatable tactical opportunities in iron ore markets.</li>
<li>Among the three major holiday-driven trading setups examined, the pre-Chinese New Year strategy generated the strongest cumulative profits despite posting a comparatively lower win rate.</li>
</ul>


Year-End seasonality remains a powerful tailwind for iron ore, as post October holiday steel output recovery historically drives the market’s strongest gains.
Pre-Holiday inventory rebuilding by Chinese steel mills continues creating short-term demand distortions, opening repeatable tactical opportunities in iron ore markets.
Among the three major holiday-driven trading setups examined, the pre-Chinese New Year strategy generated the strongest cumulative profits despite posting a comparatively lower win rate.


From Pre-CNY Rallies to Golden Week Shorts: Decoding Iron Ore’s Seasonal Playbook

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research, WHB Energy Research LLC

William H Brown III

Independent Energy Equities & Commodities Research

Independent energy equity and commodity boutique

WHB Energy Research LLC

WHB Energy Research LLC is an independent energy industry equity and commodity boutique
providing analysis and trading/investment recommendations to hedge funds, mutual funds, oil
and gas producing companies, energy consuming companies and high net worth individuals.
WHB Energy Research LLC fills a major void by providing top level fundamental and
qualitative research complemented by state of the art quantitative modeling. WHB Energy
Research LLC also engages in physical oil trading activity as an agent/intermediary and also
provides expert witness consultation and testimony. From 2003-2005 Mr. Brown established and
managed an energy hedge fund for a single investor/client. Specialties: Economic and financial
analysis and forecasting of the NYMEX, ICE, and international physical petroleum markets and
energy equities in the integrated, independent producer, refining, drilling, service, and
transportation sectors.

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

<ul>
<li>Pundits are embracing our thought from Day 1 that Iran’s “control” over the Strait is more powerful leverage than the development of a nuclear weapon.</li>
<li>We are concerned that due to domestic pressure, Netanyahu may continue to operate on his own, jeopardizing any possibility of a credible U.S.-Iran MOU.</li>
<li>Recent events support our bullish case for the U.S. commercial crude oil balance, as does the latest word from the API, which we hope will be replicated by the EIA. </li>
</ul>


Pundits are embracing our thought from Day 1 that Iran’s “control” over the Strait is more powerful leverage than the development of a nuclear weapon.
We are concerned that due to domestic pressure, Netanyahu may continue to operate on his own, jeopardizing any possibility of a credible U.S.-Iran MOU.
Recent events support our bullish case for the U.S. commercial crude oil balance, as does the latest word from the API, which we hope will be replicated by the EIA. 


Morning Market Notes: No MOU Likely Anytime Soon

Independent Price Reporting Agency, QC Intel

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Independent Price Reporting Agency

QC Intel

We are an independent price reporting agency (PRA) providing price assessments, original news and trade data for the global energy transition markets.

Our mission is to bring greater transparency to these rapidly developing markets, powering transactions and helping the world to decarbonize as efficiently as possible.

<ul><li>Crude futures were slightly higher on Tuesday amid the ongoing uncertainty around an extended ceasefire, although markets calmed slightly after the US president said talks with Iran were ongoing.</li><li>Front-month Aug26 ICE  Brent  futures were trading at  $95.93/b (2130 BST) versus Monday's settle of $94.98/b, while Jul26 NYMEX WTI was at $93.57/b against a previous close of $92.16/b.</li><li>Prices had rallied strongly at the start of the week after the Tasnim news agency reported Tehran had suspended indirect negotiations with Washington after Israeli incursions into Lebanon.</li></ul>

Crude futures were slightly higher on Tuesday amid the ongoing uncertainty around an extended ceasefire, although markets calmed slightly after the US president said talks with Iran were ongoing.Front-month Aug26 ICE  Brent  futures were trading at  $95.93/b (2130 BST) versus Monday's settle of $94.98/b, while Jul26 NYMEX WTI was at $93.57/b against a previous close of $92.16/b.Prices had rallied strongly at the start of the week after the Tasnim news agency reported Tehran had suspended indirect negotiations with Washington after Israeli incursions into Lebanon.

Oil futures: Crude edges up amid US-Iran talks uncertainty

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meituan is a Chinese technology company that operates a platform for local services, including on-demand food delivery, in-store services, consumer reviews, hotel and travel bookings, and instant retail. The company also offers bike sharing, e-moped sharing, and grocery delivery services. Meituan is headquartered in Beijing, China, and was founded in 2010.

<ul><li>Meituan reported (1 Jun) its 1Q26 results: revenue of RMB91.0bn (+5.6% YoY) was in line with both our and Bloomberg consensus estimates, while the adjusted net loss of RMB5.0bn came in well ahead of our/consensus forecasts of RMB6.9bn/6.8bn.</li><li>The beat was driven by a smaller-than-feared loss in the Core Local Commerce (CLC) business and a narrower-than-expected loss in new initiatives.</li><li>CLC operating loss narrowed 80% QoQ in 1Q26, and we expect the segment to swing to an operating profit of RMB3.0bn in 2Q26, aided by more disciplined user subsidies in food delivery (FD) as industry competition turns more rational. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Meituan reported (1 Jun) its 1Q26 results: revenue of RMB91.0bn (+5.6% YoY) was in line with both our and Bloomberg consensus estimates, while the adjusted net loss of RMB5.0bn came in well ahead of our/consensus forecasts of RMB6.9bn/6.8bn.The beat was driven by a smaller-than-feared loss in the Core Local Commerce (CLC) business and a narrower-than-expected loss in new initiatives.CLC operating loss narrowed 80% QoQ in 1Q26, and we expect the segment to swing to an operating profit of RMB3.0bn in 2Q26, aided by more disciplined user subsidies in food delivery (FD) as industry competition turns more rational. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meituan (3690 HK) - 1Q Results Beat; Expecting Food Delivery Business to Return to Breakeven in 2Q26

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices struggled to sustain early-May gains as deteriorating steel margins, softer downstream demand, and rising shipments weighed on market sentiment.</li>
<li>Rising skew across near-dated expiries points to growing demand for downside protection despite overall implied volatility softening toward month-end.</li>
<li>Seasonal trends suggest iron ore prices would typically lose momentum after May, but delays in resolving the Middle East conflict could keep volatility elevated.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices struggled to sustain early-May gains as deteriorating steel margins, softer downstream demand, and rising shipments weighed on market sentiment.
Rising skew across near-dated expiries points to growing demand for downside protection despite overall implied volatility softening toward month-end.
Seasonal trends suggest iron ore prices would typically lose momentum after May, but delays in resolving the Middle East conflict could keep volatility elevated.


Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (May 2026)

Insights Relevant to South Africa Equity Markets

South Africa Asset Management
Insights Relevant to South Africa Equity Markets

From Pre-CNY Rallies to Golden Week Shorts: Decoding Iron Ore’s Seasonal Playbook

Historical price action suggests iron ore seasonality remains relevant, with distinct trading windows emerging around Chinese holiday-driven...

Mint Finance

Morning Market Notes: No MOU Likely Anytime Soon

Iran's control over the Strait is more powerful leverage than a nuclear weapon, concerns about Netanyahu acting alone jeopardizing U.S.-Iran MOU,...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude edges up amid US-Iran talks uncertainty

Crude futures were slightly higher amid the ongoing uncertainty around an extended ceasefire, although markets calmed slightly...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Meituan (3690 HK) - 1Q Results Beat; Expecting Food Delivery Business to Return to Breakeven in 2Q26

Meituan reported (1 Jun) its 1Q26 results: revenue of RMB91.0bn (+5.6% YoY) was in line with both our and Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (May 2026)

Implied volatility retreated into month-end, though persistent demand for higher-strike calls suggests upside risk concerns have not fully faded.

Mint Finance

From Pre-CNY Rallies to Golden Week Shorts: Decoding Iron Ore’s Seasonal Playbook

Historical price action suggests iron ore seasonality remains relevant, with distinct trading windows emerging around Chinese holiday-driven...

Mint Finance

Morning Market Notes: No MOU Likely Anytime Soon

​Iran's control over the Strait is more powerful leverage than a nuclear weapon, concerns about Netanyahu acting alone jeopardizing U.S.-Iran MOU,...

William H Brown III

Oil futures: Crude edges up amid US-Iran talks uncertainty

Crude futures were slightly higher amid the ongoing uncertainty around an extended ceasefire, although markets calmed slightly...

Quantum Commodity Intelligence

Meituan (3690 HK) - 1Q Results Beat; Expecting Food Delivery Business to Return to Breakeven in 2Q26

Meituan reported (1 Jun) its 1Q26 results: revenue of RMB91.0bn (+5.6% YoY) was in line with both our and Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Iron Ore Monthly Derivatives Chartbook (May 2026)

Implied volatility retreated into month-end, though persistent demand for higher-strike calls suggests upside risk concerns have not fully faded.

Mint Finance

Iran's control over the Strait is more powerful leverage than a nuclear weapon, concerns about Netanyahu acting alone jeopardizing U.S.-Iran MOU,...