Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode</li>
<li>WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms</li>
<li>Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up</li>
</ul>


By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode
WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms
Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up


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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Technological revolutions follow a sequence: they start with a disruptive “installation phase”, then go through a critical “turning point”, and are finally followed by a “deployment phase”.</li>
<li>According to Carlota Perez, AI isn’t the start of a new technological revolution: it’s a critical milestone in the current, longstanding “information and telecommunication” revolution.</li>
<li>Being aware of different phases is valuable when investing. It can help you play the contrarian card – staying cautious during the frenzy and making bolder bets during the downturns.</li>
</ul>


Technological revolutions follow a sequence: they start with a disruptive “installation phase”, then go through a critical “turning point”, and are finally followed by a “deployment phase”.
According to Carlota Perez, AI isn’t the start of a new technological revolution: it’s a critical milestone in the current, longstanding “information and telecommunication” revolution.
Being aware of different phases is valuable when investing. It can help you play the contrarian card – staying cautious during the frenzy and making bolder bets during the downturns.


AI And Investing In The New Technological Revolution

<ul>
<li>Ray Dalio actually made an art form of it: his All-Weather Portfolio spreads risk across economic scenarios like inflation, deflation, growth, and slowdowns.</li>
<li>You can improve on it by layering a simple trend filter on top. Do that, and the risk-adjusted returns get a serious boost: drawdowns shrink and the ride is smoother.</li>
<li>The traditional All-Weather Portfolio, 2x leveraged, delivered an 8.7% annual return with 13.8% volatility, and a Sharpe of 0.48. The trend-filtered version 8.2% return and a Sharpe 0.71.</li>
</ul>


Ray Dalio actually made an art form of it: his All-Weather Portfolio spreads risk across economic scenarios like inflation, deflation, growth, and slowdowns.
You can improve on it by layering a simple trend filter on top. Do that, and the risk-adjusted returns get a serious boost: drawdowns shrink and the ride is smoother.
The traditional All-Weather Portfolio, 2x leveraged, delivered an 8.7% annual return with 13.8% volatility, and a Sharpe of 0.48. The trend-filtered version 8.2% return and a Sharpe 0.71.


Ray Dalio’s All-Weather Portfolio Works In Any Market – And This Tweak Makes It Even Better

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Maybe it’s 10, 20 years something like that. For me that’s long term. Um my prediction is that work will be optional.</li>
<li>The evidence speaks for itself uh but but but AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty and Tesla won’t be the only one that makes them.</li>
<li>There will still be constraints on power like electricity. The fundamental physics elements will still be constraints. Um but um I think at some point uh currency becomes irrelevant.</li>
</ul>


Maybe it’s 10, 20 years something like that. For me that’s long term. Um my prediction is that work will be optional.
The evidence speaks for itself uh but but but AI and humanoid robots will actually eliminate poverty and Tesla won’t be the only one that makes them.
There will still be constraints on power like electricity. The fundamental physics elements will still be constraints. Um but um I think at some point uh currency becomes irrelevant.


Did The Elon & Jensen Clown Show Just Crater The AI Narrative?

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Equity Bottom-Up

Panoro Energy ASA explores for oil and natural gas in Brazil, Gabon, and Nigeria . The Company operates offshore in the Camamu-Almada and Santos basins.

<ul>
<li>3Q26 production and net debt (end-September) have already been reported.</li>
<li>The company has reiterated FY25 capex guidance of ~US$40 mm.</li>
<li>Gross production in Gabon remains on track to return to ~40 mbbl/d in 2026.</li>
</ul>


3Q26 production and net debt (end-September) have already been reported.
The company has reiterated FY25 capex guidance of ~US$40 mm.
Gross production in Gabon remains on track to return to ~40 mbbl/d in 2026.


Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): More than meets the eyes at EG-23

Tunisia
Insights on Tunisia

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3Q26 production and net debt (end-September) have already been reported. The company has reiterated FY25 capex guidance of ~US$40 mm.

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We provide a macro view and three indicators which investors can use to track the AI cycle. They are no where near a 1999 dot-com bubble scenario...

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AI And Investing In The New Technological Revolution

​Understanding the phases of technological revolutions can guide investment strategies, with AI seen as a critical milestone in the current...

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​Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio can be enhanced with a trend filter for improved risk-adjusted returns, reducing drawdowns, and providing a...

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At last week's US-Saudi Investment Forum, Elon's inability to clearly articulate the deal he had just signed with the KSA was shocking.

William Keating

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): More than meets the eyes at EG-23

3Q26 production and net debt (end-September) have already been reported. The company has reiterated FY25 capex guidance of ~US$40 mm.

Auctus Advisors

Understanding the phases of technological revolutions can guide investment strategies, with AI seen as a critical milestone in the current...

Ray Dalio's All-Weather Portfolio can be enhanced with a trend filter for improved risk-adjusted returns, reducing drawdowns, and providing a...