Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.</li>
<li>Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.</li>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.</li>
</ul>


U.S. expands China chip restrictions -- Implementing lower performance thresholds and further restricting sales via third party countries.
Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. We will learn more today from Lam and ASML results.
Taiwan AI Plays also to be impacted -- Shares of Wistron, Quanta, Gold Circuit, Asia Vital Gigabyte, Super Micro, Alchip appear precarious.


U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</span></li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In September 2025, about 42% of the U.S. public opposed data center construction in their neighborhood. This ratio surged to 71% as of May 2026.</li>
<li>This ratio could increase further in the coming months to 80%+, in my view. </li>
<li>The NIMBY impact could show up on the P&amp;L of major global semiconductor chips and GPU makers sometime starting 4Q 2026.</li>
</ul>


In September 2025, about 42% of the U.S. public opposed data center construction in their neighborhood. This ratio surged to 71% as of May 2026.
This ratio could increase further in the coming months to 80%+, in my view. 
The NIMBY impact could show up on the P&amp;L of major global semiconductor chips and GPU makers sometime starting 4Q 2026.


NIMBY Against AI Data Centers + Cancellations = Higher Costs for AI Data Centers Starting 4Q 2026?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.</li><li>Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.</li><li>The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.</li></ul></div>

The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

U.S. Expands China Chip Restrictions: Taiwan AI Names Most at Risk of Pullback

Intel and AMD chips likely also impacted, as well as equipment from ASML, Lam, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron and others. Rather than sell...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

NIMBY Against AI Data Centers + Cancellations = Higher Costs for AI Data Centers Starting 4Q 2026?

Surging NIMBY opposition and project cancellations in the U.S. could drive AI data center construction costs up by 20% to 30% or more, beginning in...

Douglas Kim

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.

Water Tower Research

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