Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Estimates of Semiconductors value keep going up. Memory as prices double and triple in 2026, plus volume growth. Logic because unit demand is going up (AI), plus cost increase. </li>
<li>You’ve been told during the last earnings season: Agentic / Inference demand is going ballistic. The key question is not “is there demand” but can token cost decline fast enough? </li>
<li>For the Semi industry to reach $2.5tn by 2030, how much AI Capex and revenues do we need by 2030?</li>
</ul>


Estimates of Semiconductors value keep going up. Memory as prices double and triple in 2026, plus volume growth. Logic because unit demand is going up (AI), plus cost increase. 
You’ve been told during the last earnings season: Agentic / Inference demand is going ballistic. The key question is not “is there demand” but can token cost decline fast enough? 
For the Semi industry to reach $2.5tn by 2030, how much AI Capex and revenues do we need by 2030?


Semiconductor Market Value. TSMC Said $1.5tn by 2030. WSTS Says $1.9tn in '27. $2.5 Trillion by '30?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>In 2023, the number of Github commits was 300 million. 2024, 400 million. 2025, 500 million. In the first few months of 2026, it has nearly tripled.”</li>
<li>It used to take two hours to assemble one Grace Blackwell rack, Vera Rubin now only takes five minutes. VR supply chain twice the size of Grace Blackwell</li>
<li>Launched RTX Spark, a Microsoft-NVIDIA reimagined PC, built on the N1X SoC in partnership with MediaTek. Three SKUs: laptop (RTX Spark), desktop, and the DGX Station</li>
</ul>


In 2023, the number of Github commits was 300 million. 2024, 400 million. 2025, 500 million. In the first few months of 2026, it has nearly tripled.”
It used to take two hours to assemble one Grace Blackwell rack, Vera Rubin now only takes five minutes. VR supply chain twice the size of Grace Blackwell
Launched RTX Spark, a Microsoft-NVIDIA reimagined PC, built on the N1X SoC in partnership with MediaTek. Three SKUs: laptop (RTX Spark), desktop, and the DGX Station


NVIDIA Keynote Computex 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.</li>
<li>Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.</li>
<li>Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.</li>
</ul>


AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.
Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.
Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.


Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

<ul>
<li>GAAP EPS of $2.39 vs. $1.87 non-GAAP has the delta owing to a $15.9bn unrealised mark-to-market gain on private AI stakes. Any correction, and GAAP swings violently without touching operations.</li>
<li>Inventory build is front-loaded in raw materials; NVIDIA is supply-constrained at inputs, not demand-constrained at outputs. The risk is HBM4 yield and CoWoS-L capacity as against unsold product.</li>
<li>Jensen guided $20bn in standalone Vera CPU revenue this year; a ceiling if CoWoS-L supply stays tight, but potentially understated if it scales; x86 incumbency remains the underappreciated risk.</li>
</ul>


GAAP EPS of $2.39 vs. $1.87 non-GAAP has the delta owing to a $15.9bn unrealised mark-to-market gain on private AI stakes. Any correction, and GAAP swings violently without touching operations.
Inventory build is front-loaded in raw materials; NVIDIA is supply-constrained at inputs, not demand-constrained at outputs. The risk is HBM4 yield and CoWoS-L capacity as against unsold product.
Jensen guided $20bn in standalone Vera CPU revenue this year; a ceiling if CoWoS-L supply stays tight, but potentially understated if it scales; x86 incumbency remains the underappreciated risk.


NVIDIA Q1 FY27: The Numbers Are Immaculate, but the Balance Sheet Has Questions

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) delivered another beat-and-raise quarter, but the more important takeaway is that AI infrastructure economics are becoming more sustainable.</li><li>Revenue rose 85% YoY / 20% QoQ to US$82bn, ahead of BBG consensus, with non-GAAP GPM stable at 75%. Beyond the headline beat, mgmt. framed AI data centers as revenue-generating AI factories, where customers prioritize lifetime token cost-efficiency over initial hardware ASP.</li><li>We think this is key to Nvidia’s moat, as rapid cost-per-token reduction, faster deployment, and broad workload compatibility improve customer ROI and support sustained AI capex. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) delivered another beat-and-raise quarter, but the more important takeaway is that AI infrastructure economics are becoming more sustainable.Revenue rose 85% YoY / 20% QoQ to US$82bn, ahead of BBG consensus, with non-GAAP GPM stable at 75%. Beyond the headline beat, mgmt. framed AI data centers as revenue-generating AI factories, where customers prioritize lifetime token cost-efficiency over initial hardware ASP.We think this is key to Nvidia’s moat, as rapid cost-per-token reduction, faster deployment, and broad workload compatibility improve customer ROI and support sustained AI capex. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors - Nvidia 1QFY27 Earnings: AI Factory Economics Extends Growth Runway

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Semiconductor Market Value. TSMC Said $1.5tn by 2030. WSTS Says $1.9tn in '27. $2.5 Trillion by '30?

Semiconductor industry value is soaring value with memory and logic driving growth, fueled by increasing demand for AI technology. Key challenge...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA Keynote Computex 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Launched RTX Spark, a Microsoft-NVIDIA reimagined PC, built on the N1X SoC in partnership with MediaTek. Three SKUs: laptop (RTX Spark), desktop,...

William Keating

Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

Fabless AI is getting less asset-light. We trace how AMD’s rising commitments, Nvidia’s scale and Qualcomm’s $15bn ambition are reshaping the...

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Q1 FY27: The Numbers Are Immaculate, but the Balance Sheet Has Questions

GAAP EPS boosted by unrealised gains on AI stakes, NVIDIA faces supply constraints on raw materials and potential revenue ceiling from CoWoS-L...

Mint Finance

Semiconductors - Nvidia 1QFY27 Earnings: AI Factory Economics Extends Growth Runway

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) delivered another beat-and-raise quarter, but the more important takeaway is that AI infrastructure economics are becoming...

CMB International

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Semiconductor Market Value. TSMC Said $1.5tn by 2030. WSTS Says $1.9tn in '27. $2.5 Trillion by '30?

​Semiconductor industry value is soaring value with memory and logic driving growth, fueled by increasing demand for AI technology. Key challenge...

Nicolas Baratte

NVIDIA Keynote Computex 2026. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript

Launched RTX Spark, a Microsoft-NVIDIA reimagined PC, built on the N1X SoC in partnership with MediaTek. Three SKUs: laptop (RTX Spark), desktop,...

William Keating

Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

Fabless AI is getting less asset-light. We trace how AMD’s rising commitments, Nvidia’s scale and Qualcomm’s $15bn ambition are reshaping the...

Mint Finance

NVIDIA Q1 FY27: The Numbers Are Immaculate, but the Balance Sheet Has Questions

​GAAP EPS boosted by unrealised gains on AI stakes, NVIDIA faces supply constraints on raw materials and potential revenue ceiling from CoWoS-L...

Mint Finance

Semiconductors - Nvidia 1QFY27 Earnings: AI Factory Economics Extends Growth Runway

Nvidia (NVDA US, NR) delivered another beat-and-raise quarter, but the more important takeaway is that AI infrastructure economics are becoming...

CMB International

Semiconductor industry value is soaring value with memory and logic driving growth, fueled by increasing demand for AI technology. Key challenge...

GAAP EPS boosted by unrealised gains on AI stakes, NVIDIA faces supply constraints on raw materials and potential revenue ceiling from CoWoS-L...