Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.</li>
<li>If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.</li>
<li>Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO said he has a $500bn AI order book. If over the next 7 quarters, it means growth will remain at ~60% YoY till Apr-27. No slowdown. That’s possible.
If it’s over the next 5 quarters (which is what he actually said), it’s enormous growth reaching ~200% YoY in 2H26. I doubt that the supply chain can do that.
Consensus is the lowest with most room for upside: Memory stocks. Consensus too low by ~20%: Nvidia. Just a it too low: TSMC.


Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

<ul>
<li>Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.</li>
<li>Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.</li>
<li>Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).</li>
</ul>


Review of the conventional arguments (Bloomberg article): the timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue.
Review of history of Tech Bubbles (Krugman): not clear if AI is a bubble, it could keep going for years, but if it bursts it will be worse than 1999-2003.
Best AI comp is Cloud Computing. Both enable new data analytics, new applications. Both are platforms. US Cloud Computing revenues increased 25x in 10 years (2015 to 2024).


What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.</li>
<li>OpenAI's AMD &amp; Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?</li>
<li>In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!</li>
</ul>


OpenAI just signed a deal with Broadcom to deploy ten gigawatts of OpenAI designed AI accelerators targeted to start in H2 2026, and to complete by end of 2029.
OpenAI's AMD &amp; Broadcom deals undermine the credibility of the NVIDIA deal. Where exactly is all the money going to come from?
In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor. Two big headaches for NVIDIA. Ouch!


First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is setting up an offshore headquarters in Taipei, and is currently in the process of acquiring land.</li>
<li>Taiwan’s central government is currently ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while Taipei City is governed by a mayor from the Kuomintang (KMT), creating political complications.</li>
<li>Politics often takes precedence over economics, yet in a democracy, politics is driven by competing parties—inevitably leading to conflicts of interest.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is setting up an offshore headquarters in Taipei, and is currently in the process of acquiring land.
Taiwan’s central government is currently ruled by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), while Taipei City is governed by a mayor from the Kuomintang (KMT), creating political complications.
Politics often takes precedence over economics, yet in a democracy, politics is driven by competing parties—inevitably leading to conflicts of interest.


Nvidia (NVDA.US): Problems Encountered in Land Acquisition to Establish Offshore Headquarters.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Two weeks ago, Nvidia announced a potential $100 billion investment in OpenAI to fund one of the largest data center buildouts in tech history, a move immediately questioned for its circular structure.</li><li>Just days later, OpenAI inked a similarly structured deal with AMD, pledging tens of billions for chip purchases while simultaneously becoming one of AMD’s largest shareholders.</li><li>These deals, while bold and futuristic, have sparked concern that the AI sector’s rapid trillion-dollar expansion is not entirely organic but propped up by a dense web of interlinked investments between a handful of players.</li></ul>

Two weeks ago, Nvidia announced a potential $100 billion investment in OpenAI to fund one of the largest data center buildouts in tech history, a move immediately questioned for its circular structure.Just days later, OpenAI inked a similarly structured deal with AMD, pledging tens of billions for chip purchases while simultaneously becoming one of AMD’s largest shareholders.These deals, while bold and futuristic, have sparked concern that the AI sector’s rapid trillion-dollar expansion is not entirely organic but propped up by a dense web of interlinked investments between a handful of players.

NVIDIA’s Web Of AI Deals Is Fueling The Boom—And A Potential Collapse?

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor....

William Keating

Nvidia (NVDA.US): Problems Encountered in Land Acquisition to Establish Offshore Headquarters.

NVIDIA is establishing an offshore headquarters in Taipei amidst political complexities between DPP and KMT in Taiwan. Politics overshadow...

Patrick Liao

NVIDIA’s Web Of AI Deals Is Fueling The Boom—And A Potential Collapse?

Two weeks ago, Nvidia announced a potential $100 billion investment in OpenAI to fund one of the largest data center buildouts in tech history, a...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nvidia Jensen’s $500bn: What Did He Say Exactly? What Does It Mean for Supply Chain Forecasts?

​Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Nicolas Baratte

What Are the Arguments in Favor and Against an AI Bubble?

​Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

Nicolas Baratte

First AMD, Now Broadcom. How OpenAI Is Ruining NVIDIA's Party

In partnering with AMD and Broadcom, OpenAI has given huge credibility to AMD as a GPU competitor and Broadcom as a custom accelerator competitor....

William Keating

Nvidia (NVDA.US): Problems Encountered in Land Acquisition to Establish Offshore Headquarters.

​NVIDIA is establishing an offshore headquarters in Taipei amidst political complexities between DPP and KMT in Taiwan. Politics overshadow...

Patrick Liao

NVIDIA’s Web Of AI Deals Is Fueling The Boom—And A Potential Collapse?

Two weeks ago, Nvidia announced a potential $100 billion investment in OpenAI to fund one of the largest data center buildouts in tech history, a...

Baptista Research

Nvidia CEO predicts massive AI growth potential, with orders reaching $500bn and potential for 60% YoY growth till Apr-27

Timing gap between Capex and Revenue is the real issue, AI could be a bubble worse than 1999-2003, Cloud Computing is the best AI comp with...

NVIDIA is establishing an offshore headquarters in Taipei amidst political complexities between DPP and KMT in Taiwan. Politics overshadow...