Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Art-Doing-Science-Engineering-Learning/dp/1732265178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Art of Doing Science and Engineering</a>.</li>
<li>Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.</li>
<li>I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet<a href="https://kili-technology.com/large-language-models-llms/9-open-sourced-datasets-for-training-large-language-models" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, all the books ever written, and so much more</a>.</li>
</ul>


"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, The Art of Doing Science and Engineering.
Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.
I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet, all the books ever written, and so much more.


Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

<ul><li>KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.</li><li>KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.</li><li>KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91</li></ul>

KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &amp; Doom Report, took the stage to give a keynote. He said something that has never left me.</li>
<li>He told the room that if he had made only three decisions in his entire investing career (which started about 25 years prior), he would have beaten the returns he actually earned running money for a living.</li>
<li>Three decisions, once a decade, and peace of mind in Chiangmai (where Marc lives).</li>
</ul>


Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &amp; Doom Report, took the stage to give a keynote. He said something that has never left me.
He told the room that if he had made only three decisions in his entire investing career (which started about 25 years prior), he would have beaten the returns he actually earned running money for a living.
Three decisions, once a decade, and peace of mind in Chiangmai (where Marc lives).


Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a> Q2 FY2027 earnings print are scheduled post-close on August 26. The stock has pulled back over the past two weeks, trading at 211 at the moment of writing this. </li>
<li>The company has beaten estimates in recent consecutive quarters only to face mild sell-offs, creating a high bar where a standard beat-and-raise is already priced in.</li>
<li>The current pullback may be an opportunity to buy at discounted price, this is an asymmetrical risk trade, but there are some risks discussed in the inside.</li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 earnings print are scheduled post-close on August 26. The stock has pulled back over the past two weeks, trading at 211 at the moment of writing this. 
The company has beaten estimates in recent consecutive quarters only to face mild sell-offs, creating a high bar where a standard beat-and-raise is already priced in.
The current pullback may be an opportunity to buy at discounted price, this is an asymmetrical risk trade, but there are some risks discussed in the inside.


United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &...

Marc Rudajev

NVDA Pre-Earnings Tactical Positioning

NVDA is oversold after 2 weeks down and reaching $207 support. Heading into Q2 earnings, risk-reward favors LONG positioning for a 1–3 week...

Nico Rosti

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