Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</span></li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Zoom Video Communications Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As one  analyst put it on the call, Zoom “just delivered one of, if not, the greatest all-time quarter in enterprise software history.”</p><p>It was pretty amazing. The question is...how much are we paying for a high churn, potentially transitory customer base?</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

As one  analyst put it on the call, Zoom “just delivered one of, if not, the greatest all-time quarter in enterprise software history.”It was pretty amazing. The question is...how much are we paying for a high churn, potentially transitory customer base?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><ul><li>The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.</li><li>Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.</li><li>The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.</li></ul></div>

The model tests the economics of the AI buildout. It maps spending from power and capex through clouds to end-market revenue, anchored on FactSet consensus for hyperscaler capex and cloud revenue while our assumptions for AI allocation, utilization, pricing and demand, and modeled intercompany transfers are eliminated.Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.The buildout stays cash flow negative through 2030. AI capex rises from $824B in 2026 to $1.76T in 2030 ($6.7T cumulative) versus revenue of $306B and $1.56T. Cloud FCF is negative $530B and $588B, including assumed internal use benefits; infrastructure vendors generate $258B and $628B.

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>OpenAI's private funding and burn disclosures reset IPO timing, while Anthropic added Nasdaq, profitability and revenue markers ahead of listing.</li>
<li>China labs shipped faster domestic-chip inference, cheaper multimodal pricing, coding-agent tools and Kimi distribution on AWS Bedrock.</li>
<li>AI infrastructure financing stayed active across data centers, power equipment, custom chips, memory and startup funding.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI's private funding and burn disclosures reset IPO timing, while Anthropic added Nasdaq, profitability and revenue markers ahead of listing.
China labs shipped faster domestic-chip inference, cheaper multimodal pricing, coding-agent tools and Kimi distribution on AWS Bedrock.
AI infrastructure financing stayed active across data centers, power equipment, custom chips, memory and startup funding.


This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.</li>
<li>Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.</li>
<li>Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.</li>
</ul>


AMD’s unconditional commitments rose from $12.2bn at end-2025 to $30.3bn by June, all while management asks investors to focus on gross-profit dollars over gross-margin percentage.
Qualcomm is targeting $5bn of data-centre revenue in FY27 and $15bn-plus by FY29 from a base still measured in hundreds of millions, implying a steep physical-capacity ramp.
Qualcomm already has $769m of advance payments tied to multi-year chip-capacity commitments, while Amazon’s $60bn framework gives it demand visibility to reserve more supply ahead of revenue.


Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

Zoom 1Q21: Can You Top This?

As one analyst put it on the call, Zoom “just delivered one of, if not, the greatest all-time quarter in enterprise software history.”It was...

Aaron Gabin

AI Flow Industry Model : Tracking the Capex Flood and Revenue Streams

Over time, we expect to use this model as a framework for evaluating new data points on capex, AI services revenue, and token pricing/consumption.

Water Tower Research

This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets

This week in AI: OpenAI pushed IPO expectations beyond 2026, the AI slowdown debate reached markets and policy, and Chinese labs kept shipping models.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fabless, Until Capacity Has to Be Financed

Fabless AI is getting less asset-light. We trace how AMD’s rising commitments, Nvidia’s scale and Qualcomm’s $15bn ambition are reshaping the...

Mint Finance

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