Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Valuation in Retail Sales diverging — Walmart (WMT) bricks and mortar seller with 82% in-store sales &amp; 18% online) VS Amazon (AMZN) with 95% online &amp; 5% in-store):</li><li>Walmart with a bonkers 45.8x forward P/E as it hit $1 trillion market capitalisation — also now trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) EV/EBIT multiple and 65x P/FCF for a business that grew revenues less than 4% CAGR for the last decade</li><li>Amazon with a colling 27.4x forward P/E</li></ul>

Valuation in Retail Sales diverging — Walmart (WMT) bricks and mortar seller with 82% in-store sales &amp; 18% online) VS Amazon (AMZN) with 95% online &amp; 5% in-store):Walmart with a bonkers 45.8x forward P/E as it hit $1 trillion market capitalisation — also now trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) EV/EBIT multiple and 65x P/FCF for a business that grew revenues less than 4% CAGR for the last decadeAmazon with a colling 27.4x forward P/E

Amazon Vs Walmart, Retail Sales & Banks + Investment Themes by Decades

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Compute Is Perishable Inventory: racks earn nothing merely plugged in, and unallocated GPU hours expire immediately. Hyperscaler returns hinge on billable utilisation before chip obsolescence erodes installed fleets' residual values.</li>
<li>
Accounting Masks Capital Exposure: disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments exceed $3.1 trillion. Useful-life extensions and lease reclassifications reduce reported headline capex without lowering actual cash outlays, obscuring true infrastructure intensity.</li>
<li>
Quality of Demand Is Shifting: Multi-year RPO backlogs offer duration visibility, not locked-in returns. With compute futures launching, spot-to-contract spreads and post-trial enterprise conversion will reveal true marginal capacity yield.</li>
</ul>



Compute Is Perishable Inventory: racks earn nothing merely plugged in, and unallocated GPU hours expire immediately. Hyperscaler returns hinge on billable utilisation before chip obsolescence erodes installed fleets' residual values.

Accounting Masks Capital Exposure: disclosed off-balance-sheet commitments exceed $3.1 trillion. Useful-life extensions and lease reclassifications reduce reported headline capex without lowering actual cash outlays, obscuring true infrastructure intensity.

Quality of Demand Is Shifting: Multi-year RPO backlogs offer duration visibility, not locked-in returns. With compute futures launching, spot-to-contract spreads and post-trial enterprise conversion will reveal true marginal capacity yield.


The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>4Q25 inline with expectations. 1Q26 revenue inline, Operating Profit lower due provisions. AWS growth accelerating to 24% (19% year ago). eCommerce &amp; the rest accelerating to 12% (9% year ago).</li>
<li>2025 Capex $132bn 18% of revenue. 2026 Capex $200bn ~25% of revenue. Same as other hyperscalers, Amazon say that capacity is sold out, need more Capex, can’t add fast enough.</li>
<li>Consensus at reasonable levels ~20% EPS growth. Valuations average at 28x 2026 EPS. Low expectations and valuations risks. The problem is sentiment: some much Capex, not enough growth.</li>
</ul>


4Q25 inline with expectations. 1Q26 revenue inline, Operating Profit lower due provisions. AWS growth accelerating to 24% (19% year ago). eCommerce &amp; the rest accelerating to 12% (9% year ago).
2025 Capex $132bn 18% of revenue. 2026 Capex $200bn ~25% of revenue. Same as other hyperscalers, Amazon say that capacity is sold out, need more Capex, can’t add fast enough.
Consensus at reasonable levels ~20% EPS growth. Valuations average at 28x 2026 EPS. Low expectations and valuations risks. The problem is sentiment: some much Capex, not enough growth.


AMZN: Results / Guidance Inline. Capex Up. Positive Messages and Negative Market Reaction?

<ul>
<li>Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.</li>
<li>CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.</li>
<li>The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.</li>
</ul>


Lumentum converted AI-optics demand into 50.4% gross margin and positive cash flow; Coherent and Fabrinet grew quickly, but their capacity and inventory builds consumed it.
CPO demand has not moved out, but 2026 revenue sits in pumps, DCI, 200G EML, 1.6T and OCS rather than scaled co-packaged engines.
The optical build is already generating revenue before scaled CPO, but the economics are splitting sharply across the laser, integrated-system and manufacturing layers.


Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Amazon's bold move to expand same-day perishable grocery delivery to over 2,300 U.S. cities is now intersecting with an equally bold policy shift from the Federal Reserve.</li><li>With the central bank announcing a rate cut for the first time in two years, Amazon finds itself in a macro environment that could supercharge its delivery ambitions—or complicate them.</li><li>The Fed’s monetary easing lowers borrowing costs, boosts consumer liquidity, and alters capital allocation across sectors.</li></ul>

Amazon's bold move to expand same-day perishable grocery delivery to over 2,300 U.S. cities is now intersecting with an equally bold policy shift from the Federal Reserve.With the central bank announcing a rate cut for the first time in two years, Amazon finds itself in a macro environment that could supercharge its delivery ambitions—or complicate them.The Fed’s monetary easing lowers borrowing costs, boosts consumer liquidity, and alters capital allocation across sectors.

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon Just Made Groceries a 5-Hour Game—Here’s What’s Fueling the Shift!

United States

Amazon.com, Inc. is an online retailer that offers a wide range of products. The Company's products include books, music, videotapes, computers, electronics, home and garden, and numerous other products.  Amazon offers personalized shopping services, Web-based credit card payment, and direct shipping to customers.

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Amazon (AMZN US)

Amazon Vs Walmart, Retail Sales & Banks + Investment Themes by Decades

Walmart with a bonkers 45.8x forward P/E as it hit $1 trillion market capitalisation — also now trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) EV/EBIT multiple

Maverick Equity Research

The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

We dissect how the hyperscaler build-out is an inventory cycle and not real estate. Why $725B in capex, $3.1T in off-balance commitments, and RPO...

Mint Finance

AMZN: Results / Guidance Inline. Capex Up. Positive Messages and Negative Market Reaction?

Amazon's 4Q25 inline with expectations, 1Q26 revenue inline but lower Operating Profit due to provisions. AWS and eCommerce growth accelerating,...

Nicolas Baratte

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Lumentum is converting constrained laser supply into margin and cash, while Coherent and Fabrinet are still funding the capacity, inventory and...

Mint Finance

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon Just Made Groceries a 5-Hour Game—Here’s What’s Fueling the Shift!

Amazon's bold move to expand same-day perishable grocery delivery to over 2,300 U.S. cities is now intersecting with an equally bold policy shift...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Amazon Vs Walmart, Retail Sales & Banks + Investment Themes by Decades

Walmart with a bonkers 45.8x forward P/E as it hit $1 trillion market capitalisation — also now trading at 3x its average (pre-2024) EV/EBIT multiple

Maverick Equity Research

The Perishable Rack: AI Capex as an Inventory Cycle

We dissect how the hyperscaler build-out is an inventory cycle and not real estate. Why $725B in capex, $3.1T in off-balance commitments, and RPO...

Mint Finance

AMZN: Results / Guidance Inline. Capex Up. Positive Messages and Negative Market Reaction?

​Amazon's 4Q25 inline with expectations, 1Q26 revenue inline but lower Operating Profit due to provisions. AWS and eCommerce growth accelerating,...

Nicolas Baratte

Before CPO: Optics Earnings Are Already Separating Scarcity From Volume

Lumentum is converting constrained laser supply into margin and cash, while Coherent and Fabrinet are still funding the capacity, inventory and...

Mint Finance

Amazon.com Inc - Amazon Just Made Groceries a 5-Hour Game—Here’s What’s Fueling the Shift!

Amazon's bold move to expand same-day perishable grocery delivery to over 2,300 U.S. cities is now intersecting with an equally bold policy shift...

Baptista Research

Amazon's 4Q25 inline with expectations, 1Q26 revenue inline but lower Operating Profit due to provisions. AWS and eCommerce growth accelerating,...