Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> was a coal company starting over 100yrs ago. A bunch of years ago it started a solar energy business and then started M&amp;A to diversify.</li>
<li>Coal closed last year and since, MMH has become an investment holdco for "basic businesses" (drinking straws, conveyor system chains, document shredders, weighing machines, crystal measuring devices, mask blanks, etc).</li>
<li>Murakami Group accumulated 4.98% in five weeks, then the next 14.9% in five days. Pump &amp; Dump like Pacific Metals? Activism like JAFCO? Or something else more interesting?</li>
</ul>



Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was a coal company starting over 100yrs ago. A bunch of years ago it started a solar energy business and then started M&amp;A to diversify.
Coal closed last year and since, MMH has become an investment holdco for "basic businesses" (drinking straws, conveyor system chains, document shredders, weighing machines, crystal measuring devices, mask blanks, etc).
Murakami Group accumulated 4.98% in five weeks, then the next 14.9% in five days. Pump &amp; Dump like Pacific Metals? Activism like JAFCO? Or something else more interesting?


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Related Buyers Go from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518) In 5 Days. Hmm

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>Pre-Open on February 1 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a> announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.</li>
<li>Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.</li>
<li>Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings - much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!</li>
</ul>


Pre-Open on February 1 2024, Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) announced writedowns and a forecast revision, lowering full-year net profit expectations from +¥24bn to -¥28bn.
Shares which had been trading relatively richly (and heavily shorted) fell sharply over the following days, then noted activist Murakami-san started buying in. Then he bought more and went silent.
Today, Aozora reported full-year earnings - much worse than expected and Mar25 guidance lower than already low Street estimates. And they are selling 15% stake to Daiwa Securities Group. Oof!


Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

<ul>
<li>9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-fudosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a> and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. Mitsui responds.</li>
<li>Lawrence Ho is buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco(200 HK)</a>. While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.</li>
<li>Avoid being long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a> vs the Banks Index, a portfolio of other cheaper banks, etc. Minimal/negligible upside in following Murakami-san here. And Activism on Banks is difficult.</li>
</ul>


9 weeks ago, the FT reported Elliott Management had a stake in Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP) and had asked them to sell cross-holdings and do a ¥1trln buyback. Mitsui responds.
Lawrence Ho is buying Melco(200 HK). While it often pays to follows where the family invests, Melco is trading too tight for what is a simple holding company structure.
Avoid being long Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP) vs the Banks Index, a portfolio of other cheaper banks, etc. Minimal/negligible upside in following Murakami-san here. And Activism on Banks is difficult.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

<ul>
<li>Just under 6 weeks ago, Japanese activist Murakami-san's company and daughter reported a 5+% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aozora-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6483:1" rel="noopener">Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)</a>. They bought after a sharp dip caused CRE-related writedowns. </li>
<li>As is normal, they bought more (now 8.92%) post-5%-filing-trigger, but before the actual first filing. And as is normal these days, the stock popped on the first filing.</li>
<li>Then it fell, and hasn't recovered much. So far, on a weighted basis, they are up 1% vs TOPIX Banks Index. </li>
</ul>


Just under 6 weeks ago, Japanese activist Murakami-san's company and daughter reported a 5+% stake in Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP). They bought after a sharp dip caused CRE-related writedowns. 
As is normal, they bought more (now 8.92%) post-5%-filing-trigger, but before the actual first filing. And as is normal these days, the stock popped on the first filing.
Then it fell, and hasn't recovered much. So far, on a weighted basis, they are up 1% vs TOPIX Banks Index. 


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami's Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet

Japan

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

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Aozora Bank Ltd (8304 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

Aozora wrote down more, sold more, and had worse results. Guidance to Mar25 is still weak. Now Aozora is issuing shares to Daiwa Securities Group...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami's Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet

Famed Activist Murakami-san bought 8.9% of Aozora in February as shares got hit on a writedown. But it hasn't measurably outperformed the Bank...

Travis Lundy

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JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Related Buyers Go from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518) In 5 Days. Hmm

Murakami-san's "grouping" crept to 4.98% in holdco Mitsui Matsushima over 5wks, then launched to 20% in 5 days. The stock is up big. Actual exit...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Aozora (8304) - Daiwa Securities Group (8601) Tie-Up - Daiwa To Buy 15+%

Aozora wrote down more, sold more, and had worse results. Guidance to Mar25 is still weak. Now Aozora is issuing shares to Daiwa Securities Group...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Fudosan, Melco, Aozora Bank, CGN New Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami's Aozora Bet Not Going Anywhere, But No Sales Yet

Famed Activist Murakami-san bought 8.9% of Aozora in February as shares got hit on a writedown. But it hasn't measurably outperformed the Bank...

Travis Lundy