Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Operational results for calendar Q4/25 (fiscal Q2/26) were mixed, with growth yoy in iron ore output, a decline for copper, and coal split, with energy jumping, but steelmaking down </li>
<li>With BHP finally commenting on the iron ore ban in the results, in this report we cover its development so far and the shifting balance of power in the sector </li>
<li>We see risks to iron ore and copper prices, with the former already declining and recent moves in the latter looking precarious, while valuations are getting moderately expensive </li>
</ul>


Operational results for calendar Q4/25 (fiscal Q2/26) were mixed, with growth yoy in iron ore output, a decline for copper, and coal split, with energy jumping, but steelmaking down 
With BHP finally commenting on the iron ore ban in the results, in this report we cover its development so far and the shifting balance of power in the sector 
We see risks to iron ore and copper prices, with the former already declining and recent moves in the latter looking precarious, while valuations are getting moderately expensive 


Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.</li>
<li>Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.</li>
<li>The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).</li>
</ul>


LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).


Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

<ul>
<li>Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.</li>
<li>CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.</li>
<li>Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.</li>
</ul>


Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.
CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.
Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.


Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Dec)

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

Australia

BHP is an Australian multinational mining and metals company that extracts, processes, and markets iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal, and is developing a potash business. It is one of the world's largest mining companies by market capitalization. The company was founded in August 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

BHP (BHP LN)

BHP: The China Iron Ore Ban (So Far...)

We cover the China ban and shifting balance of power in the iron ore sector after BHP finally commented on the issue in its strong Q4/25...

Graeme Cunningham

Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

Copper’s physical market remains tight despite easing backwardation, while bullish options positioning contrasts with trimmed managed-money longs...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

CMRG is squeezing Australian iron ore miners, but without deeper Chinese steel production cuts or stronger stimulus, a sustained iron ore rebound...

Mint Finance

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BHP: The China Iron Ore Ban (So Far...)

We cover the China ban and shifting balance of power in the iron ore sector after BHP finally commented on the issue in its strong Q4/25...

Graeme Cunningham

Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

Copper’s physical market remains tight despite easing backwardation, while bullish options positioning contrasts with trimmed managed-money longs...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

CMRG is squeezing Australian iron ore miners, but without deeper Chinese steel production cuts or stronger stimulus, a sustained iron ore rebound...

Mint Finance

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (28 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (22 Dec)

​Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Gaudenz Schneider

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors, offering unique insights into relative...

Statistical methodology identifies eleven pair trade opportunities across three markets and six sectors, offering unique insights into relative...