Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 5th October, published on the 9th October.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.7bn into "Metals &amp; Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.03bn out of "Coal". Net shorts increased A$2.5bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wesfarmers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1104:1" rel="noopener">Wesfarmers (WES AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alcoa-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45100:1" rel="noopener">Alcoa Corporation (AAI AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 5th October, published on the 9th October.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.7bn into "Metals &amp; Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.03bn out of "Coal". Net shorts increased A$2.5bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Wesfarmers (WES AU), Northern Star Resources (NST AU), Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU), Alcoa Corporation (AAI AU), and Lynas Corp (LYC AU).


Aussie Shorts [5th Oct 2026]: Wesfarmers , Northern Star Res., Pinnacle Investment, Alcoa, Lynas

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.</li>
<li>Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.</li>
<li>A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.</li>
</ul>


Chile's copper supply faces a double blow from severe weather and potential sulphuric acid shortages, raising the risk of tighter mine output and global supply.
Shrinking inventories and soaring Yangshan premiums highlight China's strong appetite for refined copper, providing continued support for copper prices.
A strong earnings beat and reaffirmed guidance underscore Teck's momentum, but mine execution and merger approvals will shape the next phase of growth.


Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

<ul>
<li>Supply side support lifted iron ore prices, yet deteriorating steel mill profitability keeps the underlying demand picture under pressure.</li>
<li>Managed money participants maintained a firm bearish stance, suggesting downside risks continue to outweigh expectations of a sustained recovery.</li>
<li>CMRG's broader restrictions on Fortescue's Super Special Fines could gradually pressure shipments, clouding the miner's near-term sales outlook.</li>
</ul>


Supply side support lifted iron ore prices, yet deteriorating steel mill profitability keeps the underlying demand picture under pressure.
Managed money participants maintained a firm bearish stance, suggesting downside risks continue to outweigh expectations of a sustained recovery.
CMRG's broader restrictions on Fortescue's Super Special Fines could gradually pressure shipments, clouding the miner's near-term sales outlook.


Iron Ore Fortnightly: Is the Recovery Running Ahead of the Fundamentals?

<ul>
<li>Macro headwinds have eclipsed copper's strong fundamentals, though mounting supply risks continue to reinforce the long-term bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Options positioning remains constructive, with upside bets outweighing downside hedges, suggesting traders expect further gains in the COPX ETF.</li>
<li>Hudbay's Arizona acquisition accelerates copper production growth, expands its North American footprint, and strengthens long-term value through scale and synergies.</li>
</ul>


Macro headwinds have eclipsed copper's strong fundamentals, though mounting supply risks continue to reinforce the long-term bullish outlook.
Options positioning remains constructive, with upside bets outweighing downside hedges, suggesting traders expect further gains in the COPX ETF.
Hudbay's Arizona acquisition accelerates copper production growth, expands its North American footprint, and strengthens long-term value through scale and synergies.


Copper's New Playbook: Geopolitics, COPX, and a Miner Worth Watching

Australia

BHP is an Australian multinational mining and metals company that extracts, processes, and markets iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal, and is developing a potash business. It is one of the world's largest mining companies by market capitalization. The company was founded in August 1885 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

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BHP (BHP LN)

Aussie Shorts [5th Oct 2026]: Wesfarmers , Northern Star Res., Pinnacle Investment, Alcoa, Lynas

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.7bn into "Metals & Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.03bn out of...

David Blennerhassett

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

Physical market tightness is replacing macro narratives, as Chile's supply disruptions and China's import demand reinforce a stronger long-term...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Fortnightly: Is the Recovery Running Ahead of the Fundamentals?

Technical momentum has strengthened, yet weak steel margins, cautious options positioning, and persistent net shorts suggest iron ore's recovery...

Mint Finance

Copper's New Playbook: Geopolitics, COPX, and a Miner Worth Watching

The copper market could have many winners. The COPX ETF offers diversified exposure to the miners best placed to benefit as today's macro tailwinds...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Aussie Shorts [5th Oct 2026]: Wesfarmers , Northern Star Res., Pinnacle Investment, Alcoa, Lynas

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$0.7bn into "Metals & Mining"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.03bn out of...

David Blennerhassett

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

​Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Copper's Bull Case Is No Longer a Story of Hope, but Scarcity

Physical market tightness is replacing macro narratives, as Chile's supply disruptions and China's import demand reinforce a stronger long-term...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Fortnightly: Is the Recovery Running Ahead of the Fundamentals?

Technical momentum has strengthened, yet weak steel margins, cautious options positioning, and persistent net shorts suggest iron ore's recovery...

Mint Finance

Copper's New Playbook: Geopolitics, COPX, and a Miner Worth Watching

The copper market could have many winners. The COPX ETF offers diversified exposure to the miners best placed to benefit as today's macro tailwinds...

Mint Finance

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.