Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Post-Holiday liquidity provided the spark, but the decisive catalyst is rising blast furnace ramp-ups, pointing to improving steel demand fundamentals across China.</li>
<li>BHP lifted iron ore output despite CMRG restrictions, with management confident a workable solution will emerge. </li>
<li>Managed money participants turning net short in iron ore reflects growing downside conviction, as investors question whether demand can absorb still-ample supply.</li>
</ul>


Post-Holiday liquidity provided the spark, but the decisive catalyst is rising blast furnace ramp-ups, pointing to improving steel demand fundamentals across China.
BHP lifted iron ore output despite CMRG restrictions, with management confident a workable solution will emerge. 
Managed money participants turning net short in iron ore reflects growing downside conviction, as investors question whether demand can absorb still-ample supply.


Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

<ul>
<li>Iron ore declined as traders cut positions before Lunar New Year, while near-record Chinese inventories and softer mill activity weighed on demand.</li>
<li>BHP delivered strong H1 performance, with revenue and earnings rising sharply, while an above-consensus dividend signalled strong cash generation and shareholder returns. </li>
<li>Bearish momentum is intensifying as MACD weakens further, volatility expands, and prices remain firmly pinned to the lower Bollinger Band.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore declined as traders cut positions before Lunar New Year, while near-record Chinese inventories and softer mill activity weighed on demand.
BHP delivered strong H1 performance, with revenue and earnings rising sharply, while an above-consensus dividend signalled strong cash generation and shareholder returns. 
Bearish momentum is intensifying as MACD weakens further, volatility expands, and prices remain firmly pinned to the lower Bollinger Band.


Iron Ore Retreat Extends as Seasonal Lull Meets Structural Selling Pressure

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines</li><li>In Depth: Megvii Co-Founder Is Back Riding the Latest AI Wave</li><li>China Provinces Set Cautious 2026 Growth Targets</li><li>China Drafts Rules to Lure Pension, Bank Funds Into Private Placements</li></ul>

Cover Story: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International AirlinesIn Depth: Megvii Co-Founder Is Back Riding the Latest AI WaveChina Provinces Set Cautious 2026 Growth TargetsChina Drafts Rules to Lure Pension, Bank Funds Into Private Placements

CX Daily: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines 

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.</li>
<li>Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.</li>
<li>Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi's restated discount widened to 55.4%, while GBL moved to 27.6%; the former offers greater upside, but GBL retains the cleaner balance sheet and catalyst profile.
Porsche SE's discount held at 30.3%, but the final rejection of €5.4bn of investor claims removes a major legal tail risk without changing our NAV.
Investor and Industrivärden remain around or above NAV, while Rio's 23.1% Australian premium remains interesting mainly when the DLC spread moves towards historical extremes.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat Leisure.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

Iron ore futures slipped by 1.4% last week, then rebounded after blast furnaces ramp up and post-holiday liquidity push. Still, the narrative is...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Retreat Extends as Seasonal Lull Meets Structural Selling Pressure

Iron ore markets face soft Chinese demand, miner disruptions, and entrenched technical weakness signaling sustained downside risk.

Mint Finance

CX Daily: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines

TOP STORIES Cover Story: How Gutter Oil Became a Prized Fuel for International Airlines Once reviled as a public health menace in China, “gutter...

Caixin Global

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2026 Report

Wide discounts, persistent premiums and shifting catalysts. We revisit Europe's main holding-company valuation gaps and where the next convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Sep): Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Woodside Energy, Santos, Rio Tinto, Qbe Insurance, Aristocrat...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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