European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts diverged in 2025: Nordic holdcos re-rated to cycle-tight levels, while event-driven structures like Vivendi reset sharply, restoring asymmetric upside for patient investors.</li>
<li>Simplification mattered where credible: GBL’s asset sales and balance-sheet progress contrast with structurally static vehicles, highlighting that governance change—not asset quality—drives sustained discount compression.</li>
<li>Best opportunities remain selective: Structural discounts (Heineken, Investor, Industrivärden) persist, post-normalisation trades (Porsche SE) are largely done, and DLC spreads (Rio) stay catalyst-dependent rather than mean-reverting.</li>
</ul>


Discounts diverged in 2025: Nordic holdcos re-rated to cycle-tight levels, while event-driven structures like Vivendi reset sharply, restoring asymmetric upside for patient investors.
Simplification mattered where credible: GBL’s asset sales and balance-sheet progress contrast with structurally static vehicles, highlighting that governance change—not asset quality—drives sustained discount compression.
Best opportunities remain selective: Structural discounts (Heineken, Investor, Industrivärden) persist, post-normalisation trades (Porsche SE) are largely done, and DLC spreads (Rio) stay catalyst-dependent rather than mean-reverting.


2025 in Review: Selected European Holding Companies & DLCs

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.</li>
<li>CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.</li>
<li>Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.</li>
</ul>


Chinese steel mill margins are deteriorating, raising the risk of August maintenance, lower hot-metal output and weaker iron ore demand.
CMRG is tightening control over China’s iron ore procurement, with restrictions hitting Australian miners and contributing to weaker shipments.
Across SLX’s top 10 holdings, 7/10 beat EPS estimates, while 8/10 carry positive average analyst price target upside.


Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: In Australia, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

Bayon Financial

Graeme Cunningham

Independent Insight Provider

Bayon Financial provides industry and company analysis focusing on mid and small cap equity research coverage across a range of sectors including mining, financials and telecoms.

<ul>
<li>The reorg will see H1/25 Minerals revenue decline to zero as items are reclassified to Iron Ore and Aluminum/Lithium and Iron/Titanium and Borates are under review      </li>
<li>Guidance for 2026 indicates a 4.3% and 2.6% yoy increase in iron ore and alumina output, respectively, but a -2.5% and -3.7% decline in bauxite and copper production</li>
<li>Rio appears near fully valued, with -3.9% downside to our DCF and 4.5% upside to the consensus target, and we still see downside risk for iron ore and copper prices </li>
</ul>


The reorg will see H1/25 Minerals revenue decline to zero as items are reclassified to Iron Ore and Aluminum/Lithium and Iron/Titanium and Borates are under review      
Guidance for 2026 indicates a 4.3% and 2.6% yoy increase in iron ore and alumina output, respectively, but a -2.5% and -3.7% decline in bauxite and copper production
Rio appears near fully valued, with -3.9% downside to our DCF and 4.5% upside to the consensus target, and we still see downside risk for iron ore and copper prices 


<ul>
<li>The Q3/25 production update was taken well by the market, with iron ore output near flat yoy, copper jumping 10%, and moderate growth for aluminum, alumina and bauxite</li>
<li>Some reorganization has started under new CEO Simon Trott, with IOC reported with the core iron ore segment, and two divisions, Borates and Iron and Titanium, placed under review </li>
<li>We see risks from major iron ore market shifts and a potential cyclical downturn hitting copper and aluminum, and it could be fully valued on our below-consensus metal price estimates </li>
</ul>


The Q3/25 production update was taken well by the market, with iron ore output near flat yoy, copper jumping 10%, and moderate growth for aluminum, alumina and bauxite
Some reorganization has started under new CEO Simon Trott, with IOC reported with the core iron ore segment, and two divisions, Borates and Iron and Titanium, placed under review 
We see risks from major iron ore market shifts and a potential cyclical downturn hitting copper and aluminum, and it could be fully valued on our below-consensus metal price estimates 


Rio Tinto: Production in Q3/25 Robust, Metal Price Risks Remain

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

2025 in Review: Selected European Holding Companies & DLCs

2025 showed holdco discounts are not one trade: Nordics priced to perfection, GBL simplifying but ignored, Vivendi reset by legal timing. Discount...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

CMRG is squeezing Australian iron ore miners, but without deeper Chinese steel production cuts or stronger stimulus, a sustained iron ore rebound...

Mint Finance

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto: Reorg Detail, New Guidance

Rio Tinto reported detail on its reorg and 2026 guidance which look achievable but we see risks to iron ore and copper prices, while the price...

Graeme Cunningham

Rio Tinto: Production in Q3/25 Robust, Metal Price Risks Remain

While Rio Tinto's robust Q3/25 production was taken well by the market, it is nearing the consensus target and may be fully valued under our...

Graeme Cunningham

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 in Review: Selected European Holding Companies & DLCs

2025 showed holdco discounts are not one trade: Nordics priced to perfection, GBL simplifying but ignored, Vivendi reset by legal timing. Discount...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Iron Ore: Weak Steel Margins, CMRG Pressure and SLX Set Up a Tug-Of-War

CMRG is squeezing Australian iron ore miners, but without deeper Chinese steel production cuts or stronger stimulus, a sustained iron ore rebound...

Mint Finance

Australia: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (12 Oct 2026)

​Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Rio Tinto: Reorg Detail, New Guidance

Rio Tinto reported detail on its reorg and 2026 guidance which look achievable but we see risks to iron ore and copper prices, while the price...

Graeme Cunningham

Rio Tinto: Production in Q3/25 Robust, Metal Price Risks Remain

While Rio Tinto's robust Q3/25 production was taken well by the market, it is nearing the consensus target and may be fully valued under our...

Graeme Cunningham

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.