Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>China allows mills to resume bidding for BHP cargoes, signalling easing tensions, with most supply risks already reflected in current pricing dynamics. </li>
<li>Bullish MA crossover and stretched downside conditions point to fading selling pressure, with prices likely to mean-revert.</li>
<li>The DCE-SGX spread remains under pressure near the lower Bollinger band, with bearish MA crossover and weak momentum keeping downside risks firmly in play.</li>
</ul>


China allows mills to resume bidding for BHP cargoes, signalling easing tensions, with most supply risks already reflected in current pricing dynamics. 
Bullish MA crossover and stretched downside conditions point to fading selling pressure, with prices likely to mean-revert.
The DCE-SGX spread remains under pressure near the lower Bollinger band, with bearish MA crossover and weak momentum keeping downside risks firmly in play.


BHP Supply Risks Largely Priced In and Iron Ore Positions for a Gradual Rebound

<ul>
<li>SGX IODEX futures retain a broader uptrend, though fading momentum and a bearish MACD crossover suggest a near-term pullback phase ahead.</li>
<li>Near term call buying signals bullish sentiment, but softer far-dated positioning suggests expectations are cooling and conflict-driven upside may fade.</li>
<li>March’s implied volatility spike may look seasonal, but it’s largely conflict-driven. With levels still below historical norms, there’s room for further upside if the conflict remains unresolved.</li>
</ul>


SGX IODEX futures retain a broader uptrend, though fading momentum and a bearish MACD crossover suggest a near-term pullback phase ahead.
Near term call buying signals bullish sentiment, but softer far-dated positioning suggests expectations are cooling and conflict-driven upside may fade.
March’s implied volatility spike may look seasonal, but it’s largely conflict-driven. With levels still below historical norms, there’s room for further upside if the conflict remains unresolved.


Iron Ore Monthly (March 2026): War-Led Rally Lifts Prices, But Options Point to a Q3 Reversal

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.</li>
</ul>


Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.
We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.
While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.


Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices rose after China tightened controls on key BHP grades, though a temporary easing for Jimblebar deliveries softened near-term supply concerns.</li>
<li>Momentum signals suggest the 65%/IODEX spread selloff may be overstretched, creating scope for a near-term technical rebound as downside pressure fades.</li>
<li>The DCE-SGX spread is losing momentum and trend support, suggesting continued downside risk unless prices reclaim key moving averages near term.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices rose after China tightened controls on key BHP grades, though a temporary easing for Jimblebar deliveries softened near-term supply concerns.
Momentum signals suggest the 65%/IODEX spread selloff may be overstretched, creating scope for a near-term technical rebound as downside pressure fades.
The DCE-SGX spread is losing momentum and trend support, suggesting continued downside risk unless prices reclaim key moving averages near term.


Iron Ore’s Outlook Turns Constructive as Supply Signals and Mill Activity Improve

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

BHP Supply Risks Largely Priced In and Iron Ore Positions for a Gradual Rebound

Rising iron ore shipments, easing port inventories, and stretched technicals hint at a market quietly shifting from fragility toward early-stage...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly (March 2026): War-Led Rally Lifts Prices, But Options Point to a Q3 Reversal

Near-term strength reflects risk premium and bullish positioning, but shifting flows and longer-dated options activity point to softer pricing...

Mint Finance

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

Iron Ore’s Outlook Turns Constructive as Supply Signals and Mill Activity Improve

Port inventories edge higher, while blast furnace restarts and BHP’s grade restrictions could gradually tighten market balance in coming weeks.

Mint Finance

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BHP Supply Risks Largely Priced In and Iron Ore Positions for a Gradual Rebound

Rising iron ore shipments, easing port inventories, and stretched technicals hint at a market quietly shifting from fragility toward early-stage...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Monthly (March 2026): War-Led Rally Lifts Prices, But Options Point to a Q3 Reversal

Near-term strength reflects risk premium and bullish positioning, but shifting flows and longer-dated options activity point to softer pricing...

Mint Finance

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

Iron Ore’s Outlook Turns Constructive as Supply Signals and Mill Activity Improve

Port inventories edge higher, while blast furnace restarts and BHP’s grade restrictions could gradually tighten market balance in coming weeks.

Mint Finance

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

​Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.