Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Iron Ore Dominance: Pilbara contributes 15% of Western Australia’s economic output, with iron ore exports supported by major operations like Mount Newman and global trade hubs such as Port Hedland.</li>
<li>Diversification into Green Energy: The region is expanding into lithium, manganese, and vanadium mining while advancing hydrogen projects like the A$140 million Pilbara Hydrogen Hub to drive renewable energy leadership.</li>
<li>Economic and Employment Impact: Pilbara has A$170 billion in active projects, supporting 40,000 construction jobs and 12,000 permanent roles.</li>
</ul>


Iron Ore Dominance: Pilbara contributes 15% of Western Australia’s economic output, with iron ore exports supported by major operations like Mount Newman and global trade hubs such as Port Hedland.
Diversification into Green Energy: The region is expanding into lithium, manganese, and vanadium mining while advancing hydrogen projects like the A$140 million Pilbara Hydrogen Hub to drive renewable energy leadership.
Economic and Employment Impact: Pilbara has A$170 billion in active projects, supporting 40,000 construction jobs and 12,000 permanent roles.


Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 3: Emerging Green Energy Hub

<ul>
<li>Mining Disruptions: Cyclones in Pilbara can disrupt mining and port operations, affecting global iron ore supply and pricing, as seen with Cyclone Veronica (2019) and Cyclone Zelia (2025).</li>
<li>Impact on Miners and Iron Ore: Post-cyclone stocks for major miners decline, with Rio Tinto showing increased volatility, iron ore prices tend to rise from weather impact. </li>
<li>Economic Risks: Cyclone-related damage leads to higher operational costs and recovery expenses, impacting company revenues and reinforcing the financial risks of extreme weather in resource-dependent regions.</li>
</ul>


Mining Disruptions: Cyclones in Pilbara can disrupt mining and port operations, affecting global iron ore supply and pricing, as seen with Cyclone Veronica (2019) and Cyclone Zelia (2025).
Impact on Miners and Iron Ore: Post-cyclone stocks for major miners decline, with Rio Tinto showing increased volatility, iron ore prices tend to rise from weather impact. 
Economic Risks: Cyclone-related damage leads to higher operational costs and recovery expenses, impacting company revenues and reinforcing the financial risks of extreme weather in resource-dependent regions.


Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 2: Weather Risk From Cyclones

<ul>
<li>The Pilbara is a globally significant mining region, known for its vast iron ore reserves, economic importance, and evolving role in renewable energy development.</li>
<li>BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue drive Pilbara’s mining industry, with BHP and Fortescue increasing output by 2.1% and 5.5% over five years, while Rio Tinto's production declined by 0.6%.</li>
<li>Mining costs have surged, with Rio Tinto's unit costs rising 10.8% annually, the highest among the three, while Fortescue’s capital expenditure has grown 13% per year, outpacing competitors.</li>
</ul>


The Pilbara is a globally significant mining region, known for its vast iron ore reserves, economic importance, and evolving role in renewable energy development.
BHP, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue drive Pilbara’s mining industry, with BHP and Fortescue increasing output by 2.1% and 5.5% over five years, while Rio Tinto's production declined by 0.6%.
Mining costs have surged, with Rio Tinto's unit costs rising 10.8% annually, the highest among the three, while Fortescue’s capital expenditure has grown 13% per year, outpacing competitors.


Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 1: Iron Ore and Mining Giants

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). </li>
<li>Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of <a target="_blank">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s </a>Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  </li>
<li>We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore majors guide flattish growth for 2025, while China continues to have strong iron ore imports (4.2% YoY for CY24), despite weak steel production (-1.1% YoY). 
Significant capacity growth commences in CY26 with the ramp-up of Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s Simandou project, equivalent to 6% of global seaborne trade ~100 million tons.  
We believe the iron ore price will be rangebound until 2026 (between 100-120 USD/ton), after which it is highly probable that it will decline to 80-90 USD/ton.


Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 Index</a> and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 7 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX200 Index and 11 adds/ 7 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
There is a huge increase in the number of index shares for Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), triggering passive buying of nearly A$1.4bn at the close on 21 March.
The adds have outperformed the deletes across all indices. Positioning varies across stocks and there could be some big movers over the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 3: Emerging Green Energy Hub

Pilbara powers Australia’s iron ore exports and is emerging as a green energy hub, driving economic growth through major mining, infrastructure,...

Mint Finance

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 2: Weather Risk From Cyclones

Pilbara’s iron ore sector is a cornerstone of global trade, but its vulnerability to cyclones presents persistent financial and operational risks.

Mint Finance

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 1: Iron Ore and Mining Giants

The Pilbara remains a vital mining and economic powerhouse, shaped by major industry players, evolving production trends, and a growing focus on...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Our insight summarizes the guidance from iron ore majors and the anticipated impact on prices starting in the calendar year 2026 when Rio Tinto's...

Sameer Taneja

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 3: Emerging Green Energy Hub

Pilbara powers Australia’s iron ore exports and is emerging as a green energy hub, driving economic growth through major mining, infrastructure,...

Mint Finance

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 2: Weather Risk From Cyclones

Pilbara’s iron ore sector is a cornerstone of global trade, but its vulnerability to cyclones presents persistent financial and operational risks.

Mint Finance

Pilbara Mineral Hub – Part 1: Iron Ore and Mining Giants

The Pilbara remains a vital mining and economic powerhouse, shaped by major industry players, evolving production trends, and a growing focus on...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Majors Guidance: Key To Understanding Supply Side in 2025

Our insight summarizes the guidance from iron ore majors and the anticipated impact on prices starting in the calendar year 2026 when Rio Tinto's...

Sameer Taneja

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices

There are 40 constituent changes across the indices. SIG is an add to 2 indices and also an upweight in 2 others - so big buying. The adds have...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2025): SIG Is the BIG One; Changes Galore Across Indices