External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Early January trading saw little change in FX market positioning, according to the latest CFTC data.</li><li>Broad, USD bullish sentiment persists but the build-up in USD long positioning slowed among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts—perhaps not too surprisingly.</li><li>Aggregate USD longs increased USD874mn over the past week to reach a total of USD34.6bn—the biggest speculative bull punt on the USD since H1 2018. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Early January trading saw little change in FX market positioning, according to the latest CFTC data.Broad, USD bullish sentiment persists but the build-up in USD long positioning slowed among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts—perhaps not too surprisingly.Aggregate USD longs increased USD874mn over the past week to reach a total of USD34.6bn—the biggest speculative bull punt on the USD since H1 2018. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish Sentiment Build for USD Slows

<ul><li>Firm US yields, still supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provide solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the early stages of 2025.</li><li>Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024.</li><li>The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate very closely for much of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Firm US yields, still supportive spreads, bullish seasonal trends and the impending inauguration of President-elect Trump provide solid support for the USD bullish narrative driving markets into the early stages of 2025.Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024.The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate very closely for much of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Bullish Narrative Persists but Positioning Is Crowded

<ul><li>USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.</li><li>Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD bullish sentiment extended in the first trading week of the new year—much as the old year ended. Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts increased aggregate USD longs some USD2.3bn to total USD33.7bn overall, extending the steady ramp up in bullish USD positioning seen since last September.Aggregate speculative USD longs have surpassed the April 2024 peak bullishness (net longs of USD32.6bn) to near the April 2019 peak of USD32.8bn.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders increased net USD longs by some USD2bn while Institutional (real money) investors held net USD longs steady around USD13.3bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.</li><li>The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.</li><li>Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.The Fed's balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

<ul>
<li>Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond</li>
<li>Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar</li>
<li>Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bullish Sentiment Build for USD Slows

Broad, USD bullish sentiment persists but the build-up in USD long positioning slowed among Non-Commercial (speculative) accounts—perhaps not too...

Scotiabank

FX Snapshot - USD Bullish Narrative Persists but Positioning Is Crowded

Yields and policy differentials explain a lot of the dollar’s overall performance in 2024. The DXY tracked our spread-based fair value estimate...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Speculative Sentiment Builds

Combined net long USD positioning rose to just over USD59bn, the highest since May 2019. USD positioning/sentiment continues to look extended.

Scotiabank

US Rates: An uneventful year-end for repo

Repo markets remained stable at year end, with significant increases in Treasury sponsor repo balances and FICC sponsored repo usage, while the...

At Any Rate

Global FX: No calm before the storm

Overall, the update highlights various factors impacting market trends and currency movements, including resilience in survey data in Oregon,...

At Any Rate

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