Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

<ul>
<li>The September 2027 contract prices three further hikes and a one-in-three chance of a fourth, 55bp above the committee's own projected path. We buy ZQU7 at 95.325 (4.675%), $7.5k DV01.</li>
<li>Diesel is 67% above a year ago, yet core PCE is running at 2% annualised. Firms are absorbing the shock, wages show no pass-through and inflation breadth is narrowing.</li>
<li>Policy is near neutral and financial conditions have tightened since September. Two further hikes would make policy restrictive in a supply shock; a less hawkish 2027 committee makes them unlikely.</li>
</ul>


The September 2027 contract prices three further hikes and a one-in-three chance of a fourth, 55bp above the committee's own projected path. We buy ZQU7 at 95.325 (4.675%), $7.5k DV01.
Diesel is 67% above a year ago, yet core PCE is running at 2% annualised. Firms are absorbing the shock, wages show no pass-through and inflation breadth is narrowing.
Policy is near neutral and financial conditions have tightened since September. Two further hikes would make policy restrictive in a supply shock; a less hawkish 2027 committee makes them unlikely.


A Terminal Rate the Data Do Not Support: Buying September 2027 Fed Funds Futures

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fast Five is usually a weekly earnings snapshot.</li><li>This week we are doing something different. The most important events of the week had nothing to do with earnings and everything to do with the price of money.</li><li>Major central banks made decisions on rates and made announcements about their outlooks for the remainder of the year.</li></ul>

Fast Five is usually a weekly earnings snapshot.This week we are doing something different. The most important events of the week had nothing to do with earnings and everything to do with the price of money.Major central banks made decisions on rates and made announcements about their outlooks for the remainder of the year.

Fast Five: Special Debt Edition (Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE)

<ul><li>Every single day there is another signal that the money printer is warming up, we see it in higher rates, bigger deficits, and now in some outlandish promises.</li><li>The president’s speech on September 9th night in Dallas gave us the loudest one yet.</li><li>Here is what was said At the Republican midterm convention, Donald Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen, on two conditions: Republicans have to hold both the House and the Senate in November and the money would have to be spent inside the US.</li></ul>

Every single day there is another signal that the money printer is warming up, we see it in higher rates, bigger deficits, and now in some outlandish promises.The president’s speech on September 9th night in Dallas gave us the loudest one yet.Here is what was said At the Republican midterm convention, Donald Trump promised a $5,000 “dividend” to every adult US citizen, on two conditions: Republicans have to hold both the House and the Senate in November and the money would have to be spent inside the US.

LIT ALERT: The $5,000 Bribe & How To Protect Your Portfolio

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>RBA expected to deliver a third consecutive 25 basis point hike, leading to a moderately positive outlook for the Australian dollar</li><li>RBNZ likely to be more gradualist in its approach to policy, with market expectations for a move being pushed back</li><li>BOJ net net was hawkish despite dissents, intervention in the yen market a big story, path forward for yen uncertain due to Middle east situation and intervention efforts</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

RBA expected to deliver a third consecutive 25 basis point hike, leading to a moderately positive outlook for the Australian dollarRBNZ likely to be more gradualist in its approach to policy, with market expectations for a move being pushed backBOJ net net was hawkish despite dissents, intervention in the yen market a big story, path forward for yen uncertain due to Middle east situation and intervention effortsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

A Terminal Rate the Data Do Not Support: Buying September 2027 Fed Funds Futures

September 2027 fed funds price 55bp more tightening than the FOMC’s own path. With underlying inflation near target and conditions tightening, we...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Fast Five: Special Debt Edition (Fed, BOJ, ECB, BOE)

Fast Five is usually a weekly earnings snapshot. This week we are doing something different. The most important events of the week had nothing to...

Marc Rudajev

LIT ALERT: The $5,000 Bribe & How To Protect Your Portfolio

Every single day there is another signal that the money printer is warming up, we see it in higher rates, bigger deficits, and now in some...

Marc Rudajev

Global FX: Yen intervention, re-assessing USD bearish view, central bank rundown

Summary: Analysis of the upcoming rate decisions by the RBA and RBNZ, with expectations for a rate hike from RBA and a more gradual approach from...

At Any Rate

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