Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The Federal Reserve was expected to announce tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in March and implement it in April, but recent minutes suggest a more relaxed approach with no urgency to start the process soon.</li><li>SOFR rates have trended lower in January, easing concerns over upward pressure, and there is plenty of liquidity in the marketplace, with significant RRP and reserve balances.</li><li>Forecasting for the Fed's balance sheet evolution suggests a less volatile TGA balance and a shift in the relationship between t-bill issuance and RRP balances, leading to a more stable scenario for reserves in the near term.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Federal Reserve was expected to announce tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in March and implement it in April, but recent minutes suggest a more relaxed approach with no urgency to start the process soon.SOFR rates have trended lower in January, easing concerns over upward pressure, and there is plenty of liquidity in the marketplace, with significant RRP and reserve balances.Forecasting for the Fed's balance sheet evolution suggests a less volatile TGA balance and a shift in the relationship between t-bill issuance and RRP balances, leading to a more stable scenario for reserves in the near term.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

US Rates: Slowly but Surely, Pushing Back the QT Taper Timeline

<ul><li>Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectations</li><li>RBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcome</li><li>Kiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertain</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectationsRBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcomeKiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertainThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Back in January, I thought the stars were aligning for a recovery in the USD (January 16th Snapshot).</li><li>A rebound in US yields, USD-positive seasonality in Q1 plus bullish technical signals suggested the DXY could rally to 104+ while USDCAD might rebound to 1.35/1.36.</li><li>So far, so good. But what now? US data reports suggest the US economy is slowing but continues to move along quite well, pushing back the prospect of a spring rate cut by the Fed to mid-year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Back in January, I thought the stars were aligning for a recovery in the USD (January 16th Snapshot).A rebound in US yields, USD-positive seasonality in Q1 plus bullish technical signals suggested the DXY could rally to 104+ while USDCAD might rebound to 1.35/1.36.So far, so good. But what now? US data reports suggest the US economy is slowing but continues to move along quite well, pushing back the prospect of a spring rate cut by the Fed to mid-year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - USD Stretches Yield-Based Valuation

<ul><li>The USD is losing ground as North American markets return from the long weekend.</li><li>Trading was quiet Monday, with investors eyeing earnings reports (from tech behemoths) and event risk (Fed speakers, FOMC minutes) due later this week.</li><li>But the USD started to lose ground in early European trade and while movement is relatively limited, losses do looks do look noteworthy and suggest pressure may be building on the USD again. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is losing ground as North American markets return from the long weekend.Trading was quiet Monday, with investors eyeing earnings reports (from tech behemoths) and event risk (Fed speakers, FOMC minutes) due later this week.But the USD started to lose ground in early European trade and while movement is relatively limited, losses do looks do look noteworthy and suggest pressure may be building on the USD again. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

<ul><li>U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.</li><li>For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.</li><li>Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.</li></ul>

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

US Rates: Slowly but Surely, Pushing Back the QT Taper Timeline

Overall, the Federal Reserve did not make any changes to Quantitative Tightening in March, with forecasts suggesting that RRP and reserves will...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Give me a (range) break

The dollar is trading sideways amid tariff concerns and matured Fed easing expectations, while markets are primed for the RBNZ meeting next week,...

At Any Rate

FX Snapshot - USD Stretches Yield-Based Valuation

A rebound in US yields, USD-positive seasonality in Q1 plus bullish technical signals suggested the DXY could rally to 104+ while USDCAD might...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Softer as Yields Retreat

Trading was quiet Monday, with investors eyeing earnings reports (from tech behemoths) and event risk (Fed speakers, FOMC minutes) due later this...

Scotiabank

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.

Untying The Gordian Knot

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