Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>A guy named Shagun laid out a plan. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.31%.</li><li>Sell the house. Put the entire $800,000 into Treasuries. Collect $42,480 a year in interest. Use that to pay rent.</li><li>His conclusion: suddenly renting doesn’t sound so stupid. As someone who often struggles with the tradeoff between owning real estate or simply renting, this post peaked my interest.</li></ul>

A guy named Shagun laid out a plan. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.31%.Sell the house. Put the entire $800,000 into Treasuries. Collect $42,480 a year in interest. Use that to pay rent.His conclusion: suddenly renting doesn’t sound so stupid. As someone who often struggles with the tradeoff between owning real estate or simply renting, this post peaked my interest.

Episode 50: The Inflation Problem & How to Fight It (2 Investments For Your Portfolio)

Macro, FX and Rates Strategist

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Three Treasury interventions in three weeks, EUR/JPY sales, FIMA request, doubled buybacks, read as term premium suppression. The Treasury put looks to have a higher strike than the Fed put.</li>
<li>Rising term premium squeezes the Treasury twice: it inflates the interest bill, and it threatens equities, the one asset class keeping US financial conditions loose. Debt management becomes financial stability.</li>
<li>Japan's bill buffer is spent. The next yen defence sells coupons into the long end or borrows through FIMA. By 16 September the cap has moved or it hasn't.</li>
</ul>


Three Treasury interventions in three weeks, EUR/JPY sales, FIMA request, doubled buybacks, read as term premium suppression. The Treasury put looks to have a higher strike than the Fed put.
Rising term premium squeezes the Treasury twice: it inflates the interest bill, and it threatens equities, the one asset class keeping US financial conditions loose. Debt management becomes financial stability.
Japan's bill buffer is spent. The next yen defence sells coupons into the long end or borrows through FIMA. By 16 September the cap has moved or it hasn't.


The Treasury Put, Financial Stability and the Road to Fiscal Dominance

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>December core goods CPI inflation remained flat, below expectations</li>
<li>Market fixings imply a strong January print, but future inflation expectations may face challenges</li>
<li>Euro area continues to face ongoing disinflation, with breakevens expected to remain within range in the near term</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


December core goods CPI inflation remained flat, below expectations
Market fixings imply a strong January print, but future inflation expectations may face challenges
Euro area continues to face ongoing disinflation, with breakevens expected to remain within range in the near term

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>Carry remains the name of the game for intervening spreads in the first half of 2026, although valuations have become even more expensive</li><li>Geopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainty have led to caution on carry exposures due to crowded positioning and limited risk-adjusted returns</li><li>Increasing demand for EU bonds and EGBs suggests a gradual diversification away from USD markets, with attractive yields in the 10-year and longer sectors for long-term investors</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Carry remains the name of the game for intervening spreads in the first half of 2026, although valuations have become even more expensiveGeopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainty have led to caution on carry exposures due to crowded positioning and limited risk-adjusted returnsIncreasing demand for EU bonds and EGBs suggests a gradual diversification away from USD markets, with attractive yields in the 10-year and longer sectors for long-term investorsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

European Rates – Less keen on carry, UK political noise but no signal

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>The EUR 2y2y/5y5y 6s steepener idea from two weeks ago ended last week almost at the stop.</li><li>The first weeks’ heavy issuance was well absorbed, the Dutch paying still hasn’t hit the market, and the Dutch pension fund PMZW aims for higher hedge ratios and, in turn, will do less outright unwinding of receiver swaps in the transition.</li><li>Moreover, while geopolitical risks have escalated further, the narrative of even more issuance ahead to speed up defence investment never really became the dominant narrative, at least not until this week.Chart 1.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The EUR 2y2y/5y5y 6s steepener idea from two weeks ago ended last week almost at the stop.The first weeks’ heavy issuance was well absorbed, the Dutch paying still hasn’t hit the market, and the Dutch pension fund PMZW aims for higher hedge ratios and, in turn, will do less outright unwinding of receiver swaps in the transition.Moreover, while geopolitical risks have escalated further, the narrative of even more issuance ahead to speed up defence investment never really became the dominant narrative, at least not until this week.Chart 1.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Episode 50: The Inflation Problem & How to Fight It (2 Investments For Your Portfolio)

A guy named Shagun laid out a plan. The 30-year Treasury yields 5.31%. Sell the house. Put the entire $800,000 into Treasuries. Collect $42,480...

Marc Rudajev

The Treasury Put, Financial Stability and the Road to Fiscal Dominance

The US Treasury keeps feeding the fiscal dominance trade. We read three interventions in three weeks as term premium suppression, trace the...

Ishaan Dev Kapoor

Global Rates - Monthly Inflation Outlook

Data analysis shows soft reading in December, with core goods CPI inflation flat but expected to be main source of sticky inflation in 2026, market...

At Any Rate

European Rates – Less keen on carry, UK political noise but no signal

In the first half of 2026, carry trading remains prominent in the market amid increasing valuations and cautious trading in EGBs and SSA spreads,...

At Any Rate

EUR rates: Curve jitters

The EUR 2y2y/5y5y 6s steepener idea from two weeks ago ended last week almost at the stop.The first weeks’ heavy issuance was well absorbed...

Nordea

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