Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD is tracking a little lower overall on the session so far though trends across the major currencies are mixed and there is no obvious theme driving markets this morning.</li><li>The GBP is a moderate outperformer on the session, with firmer housing data and BoE comments giving it a small lift.</li><li>The CHF is the prime underperformer among the majors, with investors turning more negative on the franc’s overall outlook. Stocks are softer in Europe after a mixed performance in Asia.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is tracking a little lower overall on the session so far though trends across the major currencies are mixed and there is no obvious theme driving markets this morning.The GBP is a moderate outperformer on the session, with firmer housing data and BoE comments giving it a small lift.The CHF is the prime underperformer among the majors, with investors turning more negative on the franc’s overall outlook. Stocks are softer in Europe after a mixed performance in Asia.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Drifts as Gains Overstate Move in Yields

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The firm USD is consolidating its recent gains.</li><li>There was some drift in the overall performance of the USD (DXY) through Asian and early European trading but the index has rebounded into the start of North American trade to near yesterday’s peak in the index near 104.60.</li><li>Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The firm USD is consolidating its recent gains.There was some drift in the overall performance of the USD (DXY) through Asian and early European trading but the index has rebounded into the start of North American trade to near yesterday’s peak in the index near 104.60.Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.</li><li>Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.</li><li>March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The FOMC held the Fed funds rate unchanged in the range 5.25 to 5.5%, as widely expected.</li><li>The Fed remains data dependent and want to see more good inflation data in order to “continuing evidence to build confidence” that inflation is sustainably back to 2% on a sustainable basis.</li><li>Moreover, the Fed is more confident that the peak rate is here and removed the hiking bias sentence from their press statement.The FOMC statement was on the hawkish side compared to markets expectations:“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The FOMC held the Fed funds rate unchanged in the range 5.25 to 5.5%, as widely expected.The Fed remains data dependent and want to see more good inflation data in order to “continuing evidence to build confidence” that inflation is sustainably back to 2% on a sustainable basis.Moreover, the Fed is more confident that the peak rate is here and removed the hiking bias sentence from their press statement.The FOMC statement was on the hawkish side compared to markets expectations:“In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

­­Fed Review: Not Confident to Cut Rates – Yet

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Drifts as Gains Overstate Move in Yields

USD mixed versus majors, may struggle to extend gains without new impulse; CAD little changed; Macklem reinforces caution on rate outlook.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Consolidates Gains

Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that...

Scotiabank

Fed Review: Not Confident to Cut Rates – Yet

The FOMC held the Fed funds rate unchanged in the range 5.25 to 5.5%, as widely expected. The Fed remains data dependent and want to see more good...

Nordea

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Drifts as Gains Overstate Move in Yields

USD mixed versus majors, may struggle to extend gains without new impulse; CAD little changed; Macklem reinforces caution on rate outlook.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Consolidates Gains

Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that...

Scotiabank

­­Fed Review: Not Confident to Cut Rates – Yet

The FOMC held the Fed funds rate unchanged in the range 5.25 to 5.5%, as widely expected. The Fed remains data dependent and want to see more good...

Nordea

Fed Review: Not Confident to Cut Rates – Yet