Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A quick glimpse on some Chinese economic data, retail sale and industrial production numbers were ahead of analyst estimates.</li><li>We held a conference call (with presentation) earlier this week, laying out some of the issues that the world faces just now in terms of disruption.</li><li>We don’t want to be too depressing because it may all be over within the next week depending on Trump’s mood. Let's pray that that's the case because the longer the war goes on and the more gas and oil infrastructure that's attacked and destroyed in the Middle East, the higher oil prices are going to remain and the more a global depression is baked into the cake.</li></ul>

A quick glimpse on some Chinese economic data, retail sale and industrial production numbers were ahead of analyst estimates.We held a conference call (with presentation) earlier this week, laying out some of the issues that the world faces just now in terms of disruption.We don’t want to be too depressing because it may all be over within the next week depending on Trump’s mood. Let's pray that that's the case because the longer the war goes on and the more gas and oil infrastructure that's attacked and destroyed in the Middle East, the higher oil prices are going to remain and the more a global depression is baked into the cake.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 20 March 2026

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Despite dramatic headlines and geopolitical turbulence in recent weeks, the main net change in markets has been a weaker US dollar.</li><li>The dollar has also weakened broadly over the past year.</li><li>What has driven this move, and how far could it go?The current dollar downturn could potentially be long-lasting, albeit with periodic setbacks along the way.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Despite dramatic headlines and geopolitical turbulence in recent weeks, the main net change in markets has been a weaker US dollar.The dollar has also weakened broadly over the past year.What has driven this move, and how far could it go?The current dollar downturn could potentially be long-lasting, albeit with periodic setbacks along the way.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro & Markets: How much further can the USD weaken?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Currently in a highly pro-cyclical environment with strong growth forecasts and revisions</li><li>Risks for the dollar are skewed to the downside, particularly with Fed independence issues and potential tariff escalations</li><li>EM currencies are in overbought territory, with technical indicators suggesting extreme positive sentiment and consensus views</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Currently in a highly pro-cyclical environment with strong growth forecasts and revisionsRisks for the dollar are skewed to the downside, particularly with Fed independence issues and potential tariff escalationsEM currencies are in overbought territory, with technical indicators suggesting extreme positive sentiment and consensus viewsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Bearish USD vs. EM FX risk appetite index, G10 cyclicals and the Fed

<ul><li>Cross currency basis tend to move in unison globally but divergences exist due to monetary policy and cross border issuances</li><li>Markets are pricing in excessive rate cuts by the Fed, creating a discrepancy with economist forecasts</li><li>Fed's balance sheet dynamics, including T bill purchases, are expected to support money market rates and USD market financing conditions</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Cross currency basis tend to move in unison globally but divergences exist due to monetary policy and cross border issuancesMarkets are pricing in excessive rate cuts by the Fed, creating a discrepancy with economist forecastsFed's balance sheet dynamics, including T bill purchases, are expected to support money market rates and USD market financing conditionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Cross currency basis 1H26 outlook

Leading Air Cargo Price Platform, TAC Index

TAC Index

Leading Air Cargo Price Platform

TAC Index Is the Leading Provider of Risk Management Information Services for the Air Cargo Industry, Delivering Market-Neutral, Innovative Products That Empower Economists, Financial Institutions, and Governments to Make Smarter, Data-Driven Decisions and Reduce Their Exposure to Air Cargo Trade Risk.

<ul><li>2025 was certainly an unpredictable, volatile and at times chaotic year for global trade.</li><li>Nevertheless, global air freight rates largely followed the traditional pattern – rising to a seasonal peak in the runup to Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas in Europe, then falling sharply as volumes dropped over New Year.</li><li>The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) calculated by TAC Data continued rising steadily through the first half of December before falling steeply in the final week after Christmas – ending the four weeks to January 5 lower by -15.0%.</li></ul>

2025 was certainly an unpredictable, volatile and at times chaotic year for global trade.Nevertheless, global air freight rates largely followed the traditional pattern – rising to a seasonal peak in the runup to Thanksgiving in the US and Christmas in Europe, then falling sharply as volumes dropped over New Year.The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) calculated by TAC Data continued rising steadily through the first half of December before falling steeply in the final week after Christmas – ending the four weeks to January 5 lower by -15.0%.

Air Freight Rates Reach December Peak Then Fall Sharply to End a Tumultuous Year

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim's Summary of Key Global Macro Developments - 20 March 2026

A quick glimpse on some Chinese economic data, retail sale and industrial production numbers were ahead of analyst estimates. We held a...

Dr. Jim Walker

Macro & Markets: How much further can the USD weaken?

Despite dramatic headlines and geopolitical turbulence in recent weeks, the main net change in markets has been a weaker US dollar.

Nordea

Global FX: Bearish USD vs. EM FX risk appetite index, G10 cyclicals and the Fed

Macro data indicates a pro-cyclical environment with strong growth, supported by fiscal and monetary policy easing, while potential risks such as...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: Cross currency basis 1H26 outlook

Global cross currency basis movements are influenced by monetary policies, market expectations, and central bank actions, with current factors...

At Any Rate

Air Freight Rates Reach December Peak Then Fall Sharply to End a Tumultuous Year

2025 was certainly an unpredictable, volatile and at times chaotic year for global trade. Nevertheless, global air freight rates largely followed...

TAC Index

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)