External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>CFTC data covering the March 11th week reflect the recent trend of fading USD bull sentiment.</li><li>Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) USD-bullish positioning dropped for the eighth week on the bounce, with these accounts halving net USD longs to USD4.9bn.</li><li>Recall that peak speculative USD bullishness was reached in mid -January when net USD longs reached USD35bn. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC data covering the March 11th week reflect the recent trend of fading USD bull sentiment.Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) USD-bullish positioning dropped for the eighth week on the bounce, with these accounts halving net USD longs to USD4.9bn.Recall that peak speculative USD bullishness was reached in mid -January when net USD longs reached USD35bn. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report – Speculative Traders Turn Bearish on the USD

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Recent fall in US inflation breakevens driven by change in growth expectations and trade policy developments</li><li>US breakevens appear somewhat cheap versus fair value framework, with near term inflation risks still skewed to the upside</li><li>European breakevens have outperformed due to seismic shift in German fiscal policy, leading to a backup in intermediate yields on the German curve.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Recent fall in US inflation breakevens driven by change in growth expectations and trade policy developmentsUS breakevens appear somewhat cheap versus fair value framework, with near term inflation risks still skewed to the upsideEuropean breakevens have outperformed due to seismic shift in German fiscal policy, leading to a backup in intermediate yields on the German curve.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates – Discussing the divergent drivers of US and EUR breakevens

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative EUR Sentiment Turns Bullish

<ul><li>Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollar</li><li>Erosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowback</li><li>Introduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffs</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Revised eurodollar forecast up to 116, more bearish on the dollarErosion of US exceptionalism due to tariff policy blowbackIntroduction of new conceptual framework called the dollar tariff smile to understand FX reaction to tariffsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

<ul><li>A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.</li><li>The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.</li><li>The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

A deal on the German fiscal package has been reached and is expected to be voted through in Parliament next week, leading to higher defense spending and revised growth forecast expectations.The massive sell-off in bund yields following the announcement can be attributed to higher ECB policy rate expectations, increased defense spending across the region, and term premium pricing.The revision of ECB terminal rate expectations and steepening of the money market forwards have put upward pressure on German yields, but the term premium may gradually fade, leading to a lower yield target of around 240-250 basis points by mid to late this year.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report – Speculative Traders Turn Bearish on the USD

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) USD-bullish positioning dropped for the eighth week on the bounce, with these accounts halving net USD longs...

Scotiabank

Global Rates – Discussing the divergent drivers of US and EUR breakevens

US inflation breakevens have fallen due to changes in growth expectations and trade policy developments, while Euro area breakevens have...

At Any Rate

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative EUR Sentiment Turns Bullish

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) USD-bullish positioning dropped for the eighth week on the bounce, with these accounts halving net USD longs...

Scotiabank

Global FX: Traversing the USD tariff smile

The revised eurodollar forecast predicts a potential increase to 116 as the US dollar weakens due to US exceptionalism moderating and the impact of...

At Any Rate

Global Rates: Where next for European rate markets?

Summary: A deal on a German fiscal package is likely to be passed in Parliament, leading to a shift towards higher defense spending in the euro...

At Any Rate

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