External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.</li><li>The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.</li><li>Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position narrowed $1.8bn in the week ended July 1, softening modestly to $18.3bn.The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.Individual currency positioning adjustments were modest overall, favoring the USD while the AUD and NZD positions were left unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants only</li><li>European countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major players</li><li>Australian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market participants should look at a bigger picture view of positioning in US equities, rather than narrow metrics like IMM or market participants onlyEuropean countries, as well as Canada and Australia, are large holders of US equities, with pension funds being major playersAustralian pension funds have over 800 billion in US equities, with a flow rate of 1.2% of GDP going into foreign equities, and have low FX hedge ratios which could be raised in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios

<ul><li>We held a client call at the end of last week to discuss the developing outlook for the USD and to reiterate our view that the USD sell-off could accelerate in the coming months.</li><li>A link to a replay of the call can be found here if you were unable to participate The USD has already fallen significantly this year and the dollar index (DXY) has experienced its worst H1 performance (falling just under 11%) since the 1970s.</li><li>The run lower in the USD for six consecutive months matches its worst run of losses since 2017. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We held a client call at the end of last week to discuss the developing outlook for the USD and to reiterate our view that the USD sell-off could accelerate in the coming months.A link to a replay of the call can be found here if you were unable to participate The USD has already fallen significantly this year and the dollar index (DXY) has experienced its worst H1 performance (falling just under 11%) since the 1970s.The run lower in the USD for six consecutive months matches its worst run of losses since 2017. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Snapshot - Client Call Recap—More USD Losses Ahead

<ul><li>The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.</li><li>The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.</li><li>This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate USD short position widened $1.7bn in the week ended June 24, reaching $20.1bn.The bearish position has already reached fresh local wides (lows) and is threatening the wides briefly tested in mid-2023.This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor deterioration in the GBP (long reduction).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

<ul>
<li>FX volumes expected to remain steady in the next month and a half before potentially increasing later in Q3</li>
<li>Dollar risk reversals are priced expensively for puts, suggesting the need for alternative option structures</li>
<li>Consideration of bullish yen option trades in lower beta crossian underlyings like CNH as alternatives to dollar yen positions due to stretched spec positioning and high carry costs</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


FX volumes expected to remain steady in the next month and a half before potentially increasing later in Q3
Dollar risk reversals are priced expensively for puts, suggesting the need for alternative option structures
Consideration of bullish yen option trades in lower beta crossian underlyings like CNH as alternatives to dollar yen positions due to stretched spec positioning and high carry costs

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Aggregate Bearish USD Position Holds Steady In Holiday Week

The bearish position is at the wider end of its multiyear range, but still well shy of the extended levels reached in 2020/2021.

Scotiabank

Global FX: Deep-dive into global FX hedge ratios

FX hedge ratios and the long dollar positioning of global investors, particularly in US equities, highlight the need for market participants to...

At Any Rate

FX Snapshot - Client Call Recap—More USD Losses Ahead

We held a client call at the end of last week to discuss the developing outlook for the USD and to reiterate our view that the USD sell-off could...

Scotiabank

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Bet Continues to Build

This week’s adjustments were relatively minor, with notable w/w improvements in EUR (long build) and CAD (short reduction) and a minor...

Scotiabank

Global FX Derivatives: Thin Cushion. A Slippery Slope from Calm to Uncertainty

For the next month and a half, FX volumes are expected to remain steady before a possible increase in late Q3, with dollar performance likely to...

At Any Rate

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