In today’s briefing:
- SK Innovation and Other Stocks in KOSPI With End of Mandatory Lock-Up Period In September
- Energy Weekly (W/E 28/Aug): WTI Slid on Sanctions, Hormuz Reignites, Equinor Bets on Hydrocarbons
- Quiddity Leaderboard SP TSX Composite Sep26: Final Expectations
- YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution
- Strait of Hormuz Inflation Shock: Shifting Gold Seasonality, Consumer Sentiment and GC MAR27 Options
- Weekly Update (HOH.V, REZI, RMAX)
- Morning Market Notes: No Change in Estimated Trading Range Peak; Selling October NYMEX At $88.00
- Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): GSA Signed at SE‑MGH; First Gas Now 3–4 Weeks Away
- ATI’s $4.4 Billion Backlog: Is Aerospace And Defense Rewriting The Growth Story?
- HMRFF: Beyond BFS; Partnerships, Purification Milestones…
SK Innovation and Other Stocks in KOSPI With End of Mandatory Lock-Up Period In September
- In this insight, I discuss about SK Innovation (096770 KS) and four other stocks in KOSPI that could experience additional selling with end of mandatory lock-up periods in September.
- The end of these lock-up periods could potentially result in additional selling by insiders which could negatively impact the share prices of these companies (on average) in the coming weeks.
- SK Innovation recently announced its merger plans with SK IE Technology (361610 KS) which I viewed negatively due to negative impact on SK Innovation’s financials.
Energy Weekly (W/E 28/Aug): WTI Slid on Sanctions, Hormuz Reignites, Equinor Bets on Hydrocarbons
- WTI fell 4.2% in the week ending 28/Aug despite U.S. sanctions on Iran, as recovering oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz eased the geopolitical premium.
- Energy ETFs mostly fell with WTI, but clean energy held up, showing investors treated the sanctions-driven selloff as a short-term event risk.
- Equinor marks a firm shift back to oil and gas, but its power strategy and state ownership still leave capital allocation questions unresolved.
Quiddity Leaderboard SP TSX Composite Sep26: Final Expectations
- The SP TSX Composite is the headline benchmark for the Canadian equity market. It has no fixed constituent count, with membership determined purely by size and liquidity thresholds.
- In this insight, we present our final expectations for the September 2026 index rebal event.
- We expect one ADD and zero DELs for SP TSX Composite index for the September 2026 rebal.
YPF 2Q26: From Transformation to Execution
- YPF’s 2Q26 earnings strengthened sharply as shale scale, lower lifting costs and record refinery throughput amplified favorable pricing, driving EBITDA to US$2.8bn and net leverage to 1.19x.
- Liquidity improved to adequate and free cash flow reached US$824mn, but rising capex shifts the credit test toward preserving balance-sheet gains as shale and LNG investment accelerates.
- We move to Neutral on valuation and prefer the secured 9.500% 2031s, where higher spread and yield with shorter duration improve risk-adjusted value versus the 2034s.
Strait of Hormuz Inflation Shock: Shifting Gold Seasonality, Consumer Sentiment and GC MAR27 Options
- We had discussed various signals for gold and see some of them reversing at the tail end of the summer as we had discussed on the Precious Metals portal.
- COMEX Gold recently rebounded from lows in the 4000, especially in early August.
- Directional option strategies on MAR27 COMEX Gold could help investors position for the next move.
Weekly Update (HOH.V, REZI, RMAX)
- Ryan Detrick at Carson posted this on X recently. Yes, September is the worst month of the year for the S&P 500.
- But seasonality is a starting point, not a conclusion.
- Detrick screened for years with a positive August and a year to date gain between 10% and 17.5%, which is where we sit now at 12.8% with August up 3.0%.
Morning Market Notes: No Change in Estimated Trading Range Peak; Selling October NYMEX At $88.00
- It remains to be seen whether the latest U.S.-Iran military strikes were “one-off,” or the tip of the iceberg of a renewed and intensified military conflict.
- The military exchange appeared to be “measured” at this time, however, and we believe the oil market’s response was “proportional.”
- We see no reason to amend our long-standing and previously delineated trading range of roughly $75.00-$88.00 per barrel, basis the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract.
Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): GSA Signed at SE‑MGH; First Gas Now 3–4 Weeks Away
- 2Q26 production of 627 bbl/d and the end‑June cash position were previously disclosed.
- Criterium has executed a definitive Gas Sales Agreement with PGN (PT Perusahaan Gas Negara), securing gas sales through 2040.
- The contract includes a take‑or‑pay commitment and a sales price at the upper end of the US$6.5–7.6/mcf range.
ATI’s $4.4 Billion Backlog: Is Aerospace And Defense Rewriting The Growth Story?
- ATI, a global manufacturer of specialized materials and components, reported strong results for its second quarter of 2026, highlighting growth across several business segments but also presenting some challenges related to timing and market dynamics.
- The company delivered adjusted EBITDA of $284 million, exceeding the high end of its guidance by $29 million and representing a 37% year-over-year increase to its strongest quarterly EBITDA since 2007.
- Revenue grew 11% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, supported by a record backlog of $4.4 billion, which was up 18% from the prior year and 7% sequentially.
HMRFF: Beyond BFS; Partnerships, Purification Milestones…
- From feasibility toward commercialization. Homerun’s latest progress increasingly addresses the practical requirements for developing its integrated silica platform: industrial partners, higher-value products, and a credible funding structure.
- The emphasis now shifts toward converting these initiatives into binding commercial arrangements, qualified products, and committed capital.
- Greater strategic value from Cebrace. The proposed relationship with Brazil’s largest float-glass producer brings established manufacturing expertise and supply chain capabilities into Homerun’s Solar Glass strategy.
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