Daily Brief Macro: HEW: September Steps To Hike and more

• Boisterous US labour market data move the Fed a step closer to a September hike, with next week’s CPI release now pivotal, while rising EA inflation preserves the ECB’s path.
• The RBNZ hiked and signalled further normalising steps, while central banks in Canada and Malaysia held rates, albeit with the odds of tightening rising in the former.
• Beyond next week’s ECB rate hike and Friday’s US inflation highlight, we await GDP data from the UK and the EA, along with the latter’s final Q2 employment data.

Highlights

• Indian tire exports rise 16% to INR 7,700 crore in April-June 2026.

• European tire exports jump 25% to INR 3,003 crore in Q1

• PCR tire exports increased 21% in value during Q1 FY27

• The export performance comes as manufacturers face a less favourable cost environment. Natural rubber prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, while crude-linked inputs, freight and logistics costs remain elevated amid geopolitical disruptions.

• The SPR sits near its statutory floor with degraded withdrawal capacity, leaving the U.S. far less room to absorb the next major supply shock.
• Record U.S. production hasn’t rebuilt reserves. Gradually rising output and strong export demand mean few barrels are being diverted to SPR storage.
• Trump’s Venezuela deal is unlikely to “top out” the SPR in 2026, as heavy crude quality, damaged infrastructure, and no DOE program stand in the way.

• In Depth: Marriage Fraud Exposes Holes in China’s Reproductive Rules.
• As assisted reproductive technology (ART) rapidly advances, it is increasingly colliding with traditional legal frameworks and societal norms.
• Nowhere is this clash more vividly illustrated than in a recent, high-profile controversy in China involving an “extramarital frozen embryo.

• A large cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late August before heading to South Korea, set to arrive this week.
• Shipments from Taiwan typically move to China, Southeast Asia or India rather than to South Korea.
• Singapore-to-US shipments extended their surge for a second week, even as total Singapore exports declined.