Daily Brief Energy/Materials: CNMC Goldmine, Nippon Sanso Holdings, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Sembcorp Green Infra Limited, BHP Group Ltd, Crude Oil, Arrow Exploration , Targa Resources, Avaada Electro Limited, Base Oil and more

• CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited (“CNMC” or “The Group”) was the first Catalist-listed gold producer on the Singapore Exchange, having commenced trading on 28 October 2011.
• It began as a gold explorer and producer, before diversifying into base metals production, including lead and zinc concentrates, in 2022.
• It has since transferred to the SGX Main Board as of 28 August 2026.

• MCG Strategic Friction & Structural Buyout Barriers: A full buyout of the remaining 49.4% of Nippon Sanso Holdings (NSH) by parent Mitsubishi Chemical Group (MCG) is financially unviable due to MCG’s constrained balance sheet and low ROE of 2.6%, which would require an outlay of over ¥1.5 trillion including control premiums. Conversely, a complete market divestment of MCG’s 50.6% stake is structurally bottlenecked by regional antitrust limits, rendering strategic acquisition by global peers impossible and leaving a complex, discounted private equity carve-out as the only realistic exit scenario.
• Antitrust Consolidation Limits and ESG ASU Capex Drag: Global consolidation in the industrial gas market is effectively capped by the FTC, European Commission, and JFTC, which have historically mandated heavy divestitures. Locally, Air Separation Units (ASUs) are highly vulnerable to localized carbon taxes and Scope 2 penalties, necessitating a strategic pivot toward corporate PPAs and Feed-in Premium (FIP) schemes to protect long-term tonnage profitability.
• Decentralized Regional Autonomy vs. Parent Capital Extraction: Despite MCG’s presence, NSH operates with independent management policies protected by five independent directors who constitute a majority of the nine-member board. Capital allocation tension is high: MCG seeks to maximize cash extraction to fund its basic materials restructuring, while NSH lifers prioritize reinvesting capital in high-purity semiconductor electronic gases and regional M&A, such as the acquisition of Coregas in Australia which drove a 18.1% revenue increase in the Asia & Oceania segment.

Highlights

• Indian tire exports rise 16% to INR 7,700 crore in April-June 2026.

• European tire exports jump 25% to INR 3,003 crore in Q1

• PCR tire exports increased 21% in value during Q1 FY27

• The export performance comes as manufacturers face a less favourable cost environment. Natural rubber prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, while crude-linked inputs, freight and logistics costs remain elevated amid geopolitical disruptions.

• Sembcorp Green Infra Limited (3395333Z IN) (SGIL) plans to raise around US$393m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Citi, CLSA, HSBC, ICICI, IIFL, Kotak.
• SGIL is a renewable independent power producer (IPP) focused on developing, operating and maintaining utility‑scale and complex renewable projects in India.
• As per CRISIL, it was among the top 10 largest renewable IPPs in India by Operational Capacity as at March 31, 2026.

• Nearly half of BHP’s FY27 capex is directed towards copper, with operating cash flows expected to fully fund its growth ambitions through the mid-2030s.
• BHP commits USD 500 million ahead of FID, moving early to secure equipment for Escondida’s expansion.
• Options lean towards upside, with call interest concentrated at 100, while subdued IV points to limited expectations for near-term volatility.

• The SPR sits near its statutory floor with degraded withdrawal capacity, leaving the U.S. far less room to absorb the next major supply shock.
• Record U.S. production hasn’t rebuilt reserves. Gradually rising output and strong export demand mean few barrels are being diverted to SPR storage.
• Trump’s Venezuela deal is unlikely to “top out” the SPR in 2026, as heavy crude quality, damaged infrastructure, and no DOE program stand in the way.

• • Corporate production, including Thorsby, is now above 6 mboe/d.
• Our 4Q26 forecast of 5.7 mboe/d therefore looks conservative.
• • Backing out ~550 boe/d from Thorsby implies Colombia production of ~5.45 mbbl/d, above the ~5 mbbl/d reported on 7 August, despite no new wells being added.

• Targa Resources Corporation reported strong financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2026, highlighted by a 38% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, reaching $1.603 billion, and record volumes in its Permian Basin gathering and processing (G&P) segment.
• Permian volumes reached 7.2 billion cubic feet per day, representing a 14% increase compared to the prior year, despite intermittent gas shut-ins due to weak Waha pricing earlier in the quarter.
• The company’s integrated footprint—including NGL transportation, fractionation, and LPG export—also achieved record throughput levels, supported by ongoing commercial activity and an expanding portfolio of acreage dedications across the Permian.

• IPO Valuation Downsizing: Avaada Electro Limited has downsized its proposed IPO from ₹10,000 crore to ₹7,600 crore (consisting of a ₹1,600 crore fresh issue and a ₹6,000 crore offer for sale) due to investor pushback regarding a steep 90% revenue concentration with its sister independent power producer (IPP) entity, Avaada Energy, in FY26.
• Structural Overcapacity and Low Utilization: While India’s solar PV module capacity has reached 233 GW, actual industry-wide factory utilization languishes at 35% to 40% due to a severe domestic shortfall in upstream cell capacity (standing at roughly 27 GW to 30 GW).
• The DCR Premium Arbitrage: Since the domestic content requirement (DCR) cell mandate was enforced on June 1, 2026, DCR modules using local cells command a premium price of ₹21 to ₹24 per watt compared to non-DCR modules (utilizing imported cells) which trade at ₹13 to ₹15 per watt. Avaada’s transition to 3 GW of operational TOPCon cell capacity (with another 3 GW nearing commissioning) positions it to capture this spread, though long-term margins remain highly sensitive to Chinese wafer price volatility.

• A large cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late August before heading to South Korea, set to arrive this week.
• Shipments from Taiwan typically move to China, Southeast Asia or India rather than to South Korea.
• Singapore-to-US shipments extended their surge for a second week, even as total Singapore exports declined.