Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Copper, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Crude Oil, Jubilant Ingrevia, Mec Co Ltd, Base Oil, Crasus Chemical, Holtec Nuclear, Ingevity Corp, Schlumberger Ltd and more

• Record US copper imports point to aggressive stockpiling, while Congo’s rising cathode shipments signal growing competition for physical demand outside COMEX channels.
• Copper options retain a clear bullish tilt, with OI PCR at 0.55 and volume PCR at 0.30 signaling strong upside demand, while the easing CVOL points to lower volatility expectations.
• Political pushback puts VBM’s IPO on hold, while Vale plans to double its copper business, keeping its growth strategy firmly focused on expanding production.

• Persistent rainfall across Thailand and reported raw material shortages in Vietnam continue to disrupt tapping and constrain availability, while El Niño raises the risk of further production losses during the critical October–November period.

• Physical fundamentals are firm, but speculative activity is amplifying the rally.

• Buyers are becoming increasingly cautious as they are hesitant to chase the rapid rally widening bid-offer gaps and reducing liquidity despite firm producer expectations.

• Near-term outlook remains bullish but vulnerable to correction

• WTI gained 9.7% last week as Hormuz tensions drove a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while speculative positioning turned more bullish through fresh long additions and short covering.
• Options markets moved from panic to acceptance, with IV and skew dropping as WTI held above USD 90, though put demand remained elevated for downside protection.
• Cheniere’s contracted model continues to deliver strong growth, but the 2027 to 2028 LNG supply wave could pressure the uncontracted margins behind recent earnings beats.

• Jubilant Ingrevia (JUBLINGR IN) ’s Business Mix is improving with Specialty Chemicals driving 75% of EBITDA; however, capital efficiency remains subdued as asset turnover and ROCE have yet to recover.
• Balance-Sheet health remains comfortable, but capital allocation warrants scrutiny given excess cash in current accounts, rising contingent liabilities and potential under-utilisation of newly commissioned Bharuch capacity. 
• Earnings quality has watchpoints, including rising receivables, sizeable non-core income, profit-linked promoter remuneration and nominal-priced ESOPs, though no strong aggregate manipulation signal emerges.

• MEC (4971 JP) produced FY26 1H (Dec year-end) OP of ¥4,135mil (+69.4% YoY) on sales of ¥12,594mil (+34.2% YoY), coming in ahead of guidance for OP of ¥4,000mil (+63.9% YoY) on sales of ¥12,250mil (+30.5% YoY).
• Based on the ongoing demand outlook for high-end semiconductor packages for which MEC’s core chemicals are used, the full-year FY26 guidance was revised up from OP of ¥7,600mil (+32.2% YoY) on sales of ¥24,500mil (+17.0% YoY)] to OP of ¥8,300mil (+44.4% YoY) on sales of ¥25,800mil (+23.2% YoY).
• While the CZ-8101 will continue to contribute to FY26 earnings, the growth of the more advanced CZ-8201 and CZ-8401 package substrates is also expected to drive growth.

• Europe’s supply held relatively steady at more than 370,000 tonnes, close to where it has stood for most of the past six months.
• Americas supply dipped as plant maintenance in Brazil combined with US output falling to a 14-month low.
• Middle East supply fell to its lowest level in more than seven years, with a slump in Group III shipments outweighing a rise in flows from Saudi Arabia.

• Crasus Chemical (646A JP) is being spun off from Resonac Holdings (4004 JP) as an independent petrochemical enterprise listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Standard Market, with trading scheduled to commence on September 29, 2026. The transaction distributes over 80% of Crasus shares to Resonac shareholders via an in-kind dividend, carving out a foundational basic chemicals and olefins business centered on the integrated Oita Petrochemical Complex (618,000 t/y ethylene cracker).
• Financially, Crasus delivers substantial scale, generating consolidated revenue of ¥303.93bn and operating income of ¥4.21bn in FY2025, supported by a solid balance sheet with ¥74.65bn in net assets (book value of ¥284.12 per share). The company’s standout capital allocation policy commits to a target Dividend on Equity (DOE) of 5.0%, establishing Crasus as an attractive, high-yielding Japanese basic materials vehicle that provides strong downside cash-return protection across commodity cycles.
• Near-term trading is expected to encounter technical supply-demand distortions, as passive funds divest an estimated 14–16 million shares due to index exclusions (such as from the Nikkei 225 and major international standard benchmarks), despite inclusion in TOPIX and JPX-Nikkei 400. This near-term flow overhang presents institutional value and income investors with an attractive entry point to acquire a cash-generative, asset-backed petrochemical asset at a favorable implied valuation multiple.

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• Holtec is bringing a large-scale nuclear-focused IPO to market, offering 50 million shares at $15–$18 for an implied $8.5 billion–$10.2 billion valuation.
• The company combines established nuclear businesses with significant SMR-300 growth ambitions, supported by dominant U.S. spent-fuel market share and the Palisades restart project.
• Demand and valuation remain key questions, particularly following weak performance from 2026 energy IPOs, making investor appetite and peer trading levels critical to the September 19 debut.

• SLB has moved decisively to deepen its exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout by agreeing to acquire thermal-management specialist Kelvion for approximately $4.1 billion.
• The transaction, announced on August 31, 2026, calls for SLB to pay roughly $3.4 billion in cash while assuming about $700 million of Kelvion debt, with closing targeted for the first half of 2027 subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions.
• Kelvion is expected to generate $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion of revenue in 2026, with data centers accounting for roughly 55% of sales and representing its fastest-growing and most profitable end market.