Daily Brief Macro: Reliance On A Warm Winter and more

• Gas inventories are accumulating too slowly, so storage levels are at their lowest for the time of year and leaving little buffer against historically experienced drawdowns.
• The location of storage matters to energy security, and yet the UK has the lowest level and fullness of storage in Europe, despite its relative vulnerability to being cut off.
• A cold winter would squeeze prices much higher to destroy less sensitive demand, but that would be unusual for an El Niño year, trimming the probability of this painful risk.

• Analysis: Stricter Rules, State Capital Are Rewiring China’s Venture Ecosystem
• In June 2026, not a single private equity (PE) or venture capital (VC) fund manager successfully registered with the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC) — the first month with no approvals since the registration system launched 12 years ago.
• China’s August Exports Jump 25% on AI Price Surge

• GDP rose by 5.1 % in FY 25/26, better than IMF’s forecasts.                                     
• Net international reserves and NFA higher.
• Non-oil PMI rose close to 50. Stalemate in the Gulf not helping Egypt.

Highlights

• June rubber exports surge 54.1% month-on-month to 114,010 tonnes

• China shipments fall 21.5% in H1, while Indonesia jumps 143.7%

• Rubber-product exports rise 13.4% in H1 to US$802.5 million

• Indonesia emerged as the second-largest destination by volume in the first half, with shipments jumping 143.7% to 47,782 tonnes.

• Demand across the Americas rose 4%, as a rebound in US consumption offset a 7% drop in Latin America.
• Europe’s lubricants demand fell 4% in June, a second straight monthly decline, after rising for three straight months to April.
• Asia’s lubricants demand outside China fell 2% in June, a second straight monthly decline.

• With the “naval war” now in full swing, the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract managed to settle yesterday at the highest level since May.                  
• In tandem with the naval war, we now have intensified military activity between Yemen-based Houthis and Saudi Arabia, compounding oil price strength and risk.                                   
• We have been premature in suggesting that crude oil prices may be peaking, but we would not chase the market since we believe ultra-high ULSD will take its economic toll.