Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Meta Connect 2026 Keynote. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript and more

• Meta is shifting its primary focus from the Metaverse to delivering personal superintelligence, driven by its newly launched AI personal agent, Muse (and its underlying model family, MuseSpark).
• Monetization & Ecosystem: Muse is offered free with a generous token allowance; Meta plans to monetize by taking a small transaction fee from agent-led commercial actions.
• Meta showcased its next-generation Meta VR Glasses, a lightweight VR/mixed-reality device weighing just 100 grams (less than one-fifth the weight of Meta Quest 3).

• Bosung Power Technology is a Korean power-equipment manufacturer of transmission towers, steel structures for power plants and substations, gas-insulated switchgear, pole-mounted transformers and other electrical equipment.
• The company’s operations have remarkably improved in the past three years as it has been one of the beneficiaries of Korea’s aggressive investments in the high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission infrastructure. 
• The company’s sales and profits worsened in 1H 2026 after record breaking results in 2025. Bosung Powertech looks fairly valued now at P/E of 20x and P/B of 3.1x. 

• Tencent’s massive AI pivot is reshaping its capital allocation strategy. The company’s Q2 2026 capital expenditure nearly tripled year-on-year to RMB 52.8 billion, driving reported free cash flow negative to negative RMB 13.8 billion. This has triggered a structural reduction in share buybacks, which are expected to drop to HKD 40 billion to HKD 60 billion in 2026, down from HKD 112 billion in 2024.
• WeChat Video Accounts (VA) remain the primary engine of near-term monetization, shields against ByteDance (Douyin), and the ultimate host for AI agents. VA user time spent grew over 20% year-on-year in Q2 2026, yet its ad-load remains low at 3% to 4% (compared to Douyin’s 10% to 12%), representing significant untapped pricing power and ad inventory headroom.
• Divestment of the listed investee portfolio (valued at RMB 673 billion as of late 2025) is transitioning from a regulatory defense mechanism to an active capital-funding tool. While domestic consumer tech holdings (like remaining stakes in Bilibili or KE Holdings) are prime monetization targets, Tencent is selectively redeploying capital toward international gaming M&A and high-performance computing clusters rather than returning all cash to shareholders.

• Emirates NBD’s landmark ₹26,016 crore (USD 2.75 billion) primary capital infusion on June 18, 2026, for a 60% controlling stake has fundamentally reset RBL Bank’s balance sheet, pushing its Capital Adequacy Ratio (CRAR) to 33.28% and eliminating any equity dilution or capital-raising risks for the next 3 to 5 years.
• Structural profitability remains a critical challenge, with Return on Assets (ROA) sitting at a subdued 0.57% in Q1 FY27. Net Interest Margin (NIM) compressed significantly to 4.13%, dragged down by the immediate liquidity-deployment friction of the new capital and a tactical pivot towards lower-yielding wholesale advances (which grew 38% YoY to ₹52,027 crore) to manage overall credit risk.
• The retail book’s seasoned vintages from mid-2024 to early 2025 represent the core credit vulnerability. Co-branded credit cards and digital personal loans sourced via fintech partnerships during the peak of the aggressive expansion phase have seen early-bucket (30-90 DPD) delinquencies trend 120 to 150 basis points above pre-COVID norms, driving elevated credit card slippages of ₹7.4 billion in Q1 FY27 and prompting a severe pruning of digital-partner originations.

• Market Leadership & Backward Integration Advantage: Supriya Lifescience Limited (SUPRIYA IN) is a niche active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and finished dosage formulation (FDF) manufacturer with global leadership in key molecules across antihistamines, anesthetics, vitamins, and anti-asthmatics. Over 75% of its API portfolio is backward integrated to the basic starting material stage, delivering industry-leading EBITDA margins (35-38%) and shielding operations from raw material price volatility.
• Strong High-Margin Growth Trajectory: The company demonstrated strong financial performance with revenue expanding at a 3-year CAGR of 21.23% to reach INR 8,278.75M in FY26, alongside a 32.52% net income CAGR to INR 2,091.20M. Growth is supported by deepening penetration across regulated export markets (Europe, North America, LATAM), long-term strategic contracts (e.g., DSM-Firmenich for Vitamin B2), and an expanding finished formulation pipeline.
• Strategic Expansion into Formulations and CDMO: Commercialization of the Ambernath FDF and CDMO facility alongside capacity additions at the Lote Parshuram site (Module E taking reactor capacity to 1,020 KLPD) and upcoming Patalganga greenfield site establishes a clear roadmap toward management’s INR 16,000M medium-term revenue aspiration. Balance sheet strength remains pristine with net-cash positioning and self-funded growth.

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• Post-Merger Balance Sheet Normalization: HDFC Bank (ADR: HDB US, $22.79) is executing a measured transition strategy following its landmark merger with HDFC Ltd, actively re-aligning its Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) through accelerated retail deposit mobilization while moderating wholesale credit growth to safeguard Net Interest Margins (NIM).
• Resilient Earnings Power and Cash Flow Generation: The bank demonstrated robust fundamentals in FY26, generating $56.91B in revenue and $8.60B in net income with stable net margins of 15.12%, supported by a dramatic expansion in Operating Cash Flow to $18.97B and Free Cash Flow to $18.53B.
• Attractive Valuation Asymmetry: A persistent disconnect exists between HDFC Bank’s operational compounding (10-year Revenue and Net Income CAGRs of 17.48% and 15.97%) and recent equity performance (3-year Market Cap CAGR of -9.29%), creating an attractive entry point for institutional investors seeking premier exposure to Indian structural credit growth.

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• Topco says 2nm, A16 and advanced packaging raise both the amount and the value of material each wafer consumes, and it is adding adhesives, films and carriers for chip stacking.
• Topco co-owns factories with Shin-Etsu to keep that supplier selling through it, and offers smaller Taiwanese suppliers a shared route into overseas fabs.
• Materials revenue rose 22.7% in the first half while plant-building fell 0.9%, and July and August ran 39.5% above 2025. The shares trade at 18.3x 2026 earnings.

• Our 2022 earnings thesis largely worked: FY12/2021-FY12/2025 profit compounded about 15% annually while adjusted EBITDA margins remained above 66%.
• What we underestimated was regulatory and geographic complexity: by Q2 FY12/2026, only 49% of revenue was classified as regulated by player IP.
• The next phase depends on renewed organic growth, better regulated-market monetization, and whether large buybacks can convert resilient cash generation into stronger per-share compounding.

• Sourcing Structure Overhaul Required: PT Indo Oil Perkasa Tbk (OILS) managed to improve gross margins to 7.3% in 6M26, achieving a gross profit of Rp 53.4 billion. However, the company remains structurally vulnerable to raw material volatility due to high reliance on a single primary supplier for over 50% of its copra feedstock, limiting its ability to hedge cost fluctuations dynamically over the next 4 quarters.
• PT Indo Kelapa Perkasa Divestment Was Capital Preservation: The April 19, 2025 share divestment of PT Indo Kelapa Perkasa (IKP), which reduced OILS’ ownership to 52%, was not a strategic exit but a necessary move to share the Rp 6.0 billion Capex burden with strategic partners amid a highly constrained corporate cash position of Rp 14.4 billion.
• Market Volatility Driven by Float illiquidity and IR Gaps: The Unusual Market Activity (UMA) issued by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) on September 8, 2026, highlights OILS’ systemic retail-driven volatility. With 47.85% tightly held by the family holding entity (PT Mandalindo Putra Perkasa) and a lean 35-person corporate structure, the management team dedicates less than 5% of its time to investor relations, leaving the stock vulnerable to speculative local trading groups.

• Link REIT (823 HK) represents Asia’s largest and most defensively structured real estate investment trust, anchored by a HK$210B+ portfolio comprising necessity-focused neighbourhood retail, fresh wet markets, and car parks predominantly situated in Hong Kong’s high-density public housing estates.
• Despite headline statutory net losses in 2025 and 2026 driven entirely by non-cash property revaluation writedowns amid global cap rate expansions, underlying cash flows remain robust with operating cash flow of HK$6.82B in 2026 and an attractive forward distribution yield of ~6.80%.
• Management’s strategic pivot toward the ‘Link 3.0’ capital management framework—focused on capital recycling (e.g., partial divestment of 100 Market Street in Sydney), institutional joint ventures, and accretive unit buybacks—provides balance sheet resilience and supports long-term distribution per unit (DPU) stability.

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