In today’s briefing:
- Mi Material | Pre-IPO (Management Comments): Capitalising on the Advanced Packaging Wave
- Mynt (GCASH PM): No Quick Index Inclusion to Absorb Float
- Z.AI (2513 HK): Models Ranking Among Top Revenue Earners
- HK IPO WATCH: Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology – RISC-V Business !!
- Elice Group IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
- Orbbec (奥比中光) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts
- Epiris / Gamma Communications: Waterland Drops the Call
- Dassault Systèmes (DSY FP): An Evolving Competitive Landscape
- Aequitas: Orbbec A/H Listing – Track Record Isn’t Great but Robovision Outlook Is Bright
- Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (688036 CH): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (06 Oct 2026)
Mi Material | Pre-IPO (Management Comments): Capitalising on the Advanced Packaging Wave
- Top-Tier Market Positioning: Mi Material is a leading global provider of precision solder spheres and specialty alloys, with a 24.0% share of its serviceable addressable market in 2025, according to Yole. The company supports advanced semiconductor packaging from production facilities in Taiwan and China, with a third facility under construction in Malaysia to meet customers’ supply-chain resilience requirements.
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Proprietary Alloy Margin Expansion: The core value driver is the company’s shift towards patented specialty alloys, which rose to 59.9% of revenue in 1H26 from 51.0% in FY25. It is supported by more frequent pricing discussions with customers since the 2025 silver rally (monthly price resets, according to management), which help pass raw material costs through to customers. Revenue grew at a 28.1% CAGR from FY23 to FY25, and adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 37.5% in 1H26, which management attributes mainly to the wider use of specialty alloys across devices.
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Geopolitical Export Regulatory Friction: Since 1 January 2026, only companies holding an approved export licence may export silver from China. According to management, this treats the company’s silver-containing solder spheres as silver products, removing their tax-exempt export status and adding about 30.0% to export costs, and as the company was not granted a licence, the Ningbo facility cannot serve international free-trade-zone customers. The plant ran at only 10% to 15% utilisation in FY25 and 1H26, according to the prospectus, and is being repositioned to serve domestic Chinese customers.
Mynt (GCASH PM): No Quick Index Inclusion to Absorb Float
- GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) is looking to raise up to US$972m by selling shares at ₱6.6/share, valuing the company at ₱442bn (US$7bn).
- The offer period runs from 6-12 October and the stock is expected to start trading on 20 October. Demand is said to be multiples of the offer size.
- The earliest global index inclusion will come in June 2027, followed by a possible Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion in July.
Z.AI (2513 HK): Models Ranking Among Top Revenue Earners
- We believe dollar market share is the most direct approach to exam AI models.
- Z.AI’s two models, GLM-5.3 and GLM-5.3 Flash, are ranked top 8 in typical AI functions.
- The primary risk lies in the lifting of the lock-up period for restricted shares.
HK IPO WATCH: Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology – RISC-V Business !!
- Beijing ESWIN Computing Technology (1256 HK) is listing in Hong Kong on September 9th in an IPO, offering shares between $HK1.48 and $HK1.59 per share, raising up to $HK2.5 billion.
- ESWIN is one of China’s leading RISC-V chipmakers, placing it at the intersection of China’s drive toward semiconductor self-sufficiency and the global shift away from proprietary ISA architectures.
- The company’s RISC-V focus differentiates it from ARM-based peers and aligns with Beijing’s push for open-architecture semiconductor independence.
Elice Group IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis
- A total of 2,367 institutions participated in the Elice Group IPO survey. The total demand ratio was 388.8 to 1. IPO price was finalized at 90,500 won.
- My base case valuation of Elice Group is a target price of 62,353 won per share which is 31% lower than the IPO price of 90,500 won.
- Given the lack of upside, I have a Negative View of this IPO. Bankers used eight overseas companies as comps for Elice Group. I used four Korean companies as comps.
Orbbec (奥比中光) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts
- Orbbec, a maker of 3D vision sensors and devices for robots and connected machines, is seeking an A+H listing. GS and Haitong are the joint sponsors.
- We look at the company’s core segments: system-level devices and solutions, and sensors.
- We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company’s valuation based on the A-H premium.
Epiris / Gamma Communications: Waterland Drops the Call
- Waterland’s Rule 2.8 withdrawal removes the only identified competing bidder, leaving Epiris’s recommended 1,120p cash offer as the only live transaction.
- At 1,092p, the 2.56% gross spread annualises to approximately 5.4% using our estimated 31 March 2027 settlement date.
- We would not initiate at current levels: a 5.4% annualised return looks insufficient with seven regulatory approvals still outstanding and meaningful timetable risk.
Dassault Systèmes (DSY FP): An Evolving Competitive Landscape
- Schneider/PTC creates a formidable competitor, significantly broadening Schneider Electric’s industrial software offering and strengthening its position against Dassault Systèmes, Siemens and Autodesk.
- Competitive pressure on Dassault Systèmes will increase, particularly in ALM, industrial operations, automation, energy management and field service, although its core engineering, PLM, simulation and virtual twin franchises remain strong.
- AI could strengthen Dassault Systèmes’ differentiation, with ArisGlobal, Medidata and virtual twins providing valuable proprietary data and capabilities to develop industry-specific AI and “world models”.
Aequitas: Orbbec A/H Listing – Track Record Isn’t Great but Robovision Outlook Is Bright
- Orbbec (688322 CH), a 3D visual perception solutions provider, aims to raise around US$300m in its H-share listing.
- Orbbec designs, develops, and manufactures a suite of 3D vision sensors and a range of consumer-grade and industrial-grade application devices, serving customers across robotics, and other artificial intelligence of things.
- In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.
Shenzhen Transsion Holdings (688036 CH): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (06 Oct 2026)
- Strategic Pivot to ASP Growth Over Volume: Faced with an unprecedented memory chip pricing surge driven by AI-related HBM reallocations, Transsion has shifted from a pure volume-chasing strategy to a margin-preservation model. The company executed rolling price increases that successfully raised Average Selling Prices (ASPs), driving a 21.85% year-on-year revenue rebound to RMB 35.43 billion in H1 2026 despite falling global unit shipments.
- Defensive Dual “A+H” Capital Structure: The proposed $400 million to $500 million HKEx IPO, backed by CITIC Securities and targeted for mid-October 2026, is not merely for R&D. It acts as a critical strategic release valve to access offshore capital, bypass mainland A-share regulatory constraints on large-scale shareholder cash-outs, and fund escalating global patent litigation settlements with Ericsson, Nokia, and InterDigital.
- Vulnerability in the Sub-$150 Segment and Rising Rivals: While Transsion maintains a commanding volume presence in Africa with a 47% market share in Q1 2026, its core sub-$150 smartphone segment is structurally exposed to upstream component shocks. Rivals like Honor, which grew 101% year-on-year in Africa in Q1 2026, are weaponizing carrier-backed financing to capture the higher-margin, $150–$250 mid-tier segment where Transsion’s historical offline distribution moat is less effective.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
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