In today’s briefing:
- Cross-Asset Rotations: China, Asia FX, Commodities, and More
- Oil futures: Crude eases as Trump rules out pre-election strike on Iran
- Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review – 9 Oct ’26
- US Housing: The Lingering Curse of Poor Affordability Intensifies
- Anatomy of a Canadian Bear
- Middle East FX, October 9nd 2026
- CX Daily: Yuan’s Global Role Is Expanding Beyond Trade, StanChart Execs Say
- Morning Market Notes: Will The U.S.-Russia Diesel Deal Happen? Maybe Not
- Oil futures: Crude higher as Mideast risk offsets Russia diesel release
- The First-Mile View on Commodities Making News (12 Oct 2026)
Cross-Asset Rotations: China, Asia FX, Commodities, and More
- Participation is broadening across markets as cap-weighted U.S. leadership narrows to a handful of stocks.
- We stay invested in core trends and see room for emerging opportunities like China ADRs, which saw an upgrade. See our sample portfolio.
- For Asia-focused investors, the dollar’s softening is concentrated against EM Asia currencies and the carry complex despite the dollar index’s bias against EUR.
Oil futures: Crude eases as Trump rules out pre-election strike on Iran
- Crude oil futures eased slightly on Friday after US President Donald Trump ruled out immediate attacks on Iran, while Hurricane Isaias has taken a more easterly direction and away from the Louisiana onshore oil hub.
- Front-month Dec26 ICE Brent futures were 0.2% lower at $104.09/b (2101 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX WTI was at $91.38/b , down 0.1% versus Thursday’s settle.
- President Donald Trump said on Thursday the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections, tempering rising crude oil prices after several US media reports had flagged that renewed military strikes were looking imminent.
Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review – 9 Oct ’26
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Spare base oils supply is thin across major regions, leaving little room to absorb disruption from storms, outages or maintenance
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Asia cleared a swathe of supply in the third quarter, leaving it balanced to tight with less room to cover other markets.
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Singapore’s exports fell for a second week, a slowdown that would further limit Asia’s spare supply if it continues as seasonal demand firms.
US Housing: The Lingering Curse of Poor Affordability Intensifies
- The post-pandemic return of inflation and higher interest rates has had negative implications for US housing affordability. Rising mortgage rates since March have further dented the prospects for improved affordability.
- Housing affordability has deteriorated to its lowest level since the 1980s. Apart from lower interest rates, better affordability will require future household income gains persistently outstripping home price appreciation.
- Full federal government guarantees on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities would enhance housing affordability. Mortgage buydowns by homebuilders should be eliminated because they artificially boost market-clearing prices .
Anatomy of a Canadian Bear
- The S&P/TSX Composite has fallen 15% or more from a closing high sixteen times since 1979.
- The average drawdown during those episodes was 27.6% over eight months; the median was 23.4% over six.
- The gap is almost entirely the two structural bears, 2000-02 and 2008-09, which fell roughly 50% and took an average of 51 months to regain their peaks.
Middle East FX, October 9nd 2026
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GCC sees record remittance outflows in 2025. Iraq devalues its currency by 15 %.
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Saudi’s non-oil PMI rebounds strongly. Qatar partners with Euroclear for its local debt.
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UAE, domestic credit grows at 15 % y/y in August.
CX Daily: Yuan’s Global Role Is Expanding Beyond Trade, StanChart Execs Say
- Yuan’s Global Role Is Expanding Beyond Trade, StanChart Execs Say
- The yuan is playing a growing role in cross-border trade and financing, but its global footprint remains limited, leaving substantial room to expand as Chinese companies deepen their overseas operations, Standard Chartered executives said at a recent forum in Singapore.
- China Says It Has No Intention of Depreciating Yuan to Boost Exports
Morning Market Notes: Will The U.S.-Russia Diesel Deal Happen? Maybe Not
- As we suspected, there are already what appear to be “cracks” in the U.S. deal for diesel, with Zelensky claiming that Russia has violated President Trump’s ceasefire on energy assets.
- President Trump is also receiving significant “blowback” from both sides of the aisle, who are claiming that the deal violates the 2022 law prohibiting any aid to Putin’s war effort.
- As a result, and as we anticipated, NYMEX ULSD is experiencing a degree of “comeback” thus far, but we concede the jury remains out.
Oil futures: Crude higher as Mideast risk offsets Russia diesel release
- Crude oil futures were climbing higher on Monday as continued threats to Middle East crude flows helped offset expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies and a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.
- Front-month Dec26 ICE Brent futures were 1.4% higher at $106.17/b (2055 BST), while Nov26 NYMEX WTI was at $93.27/b , up 1.6% versus Friday’s settle.
- US President Donald Trump said Russia would supply an additional 500,000 tonnes of diesel in November and another 1 million tonnes “immediately thereafter,” following a supply deal with Moscow.
The First-Mile View on Commodities Making News (12 Oct 2026)
- El Niño is the common thread in this edition, lifting raw sugar to an 19-month high and raising quality and flowering questions for Brazil coffee while West African cocoa waits on the rains.
- In US grains, USDA’s 9 October report raised corn and soybean yields above trade expectations, sending December corn to $4.79¾, and first-mile data shows where supply risk sits inside the national totals.
- US corn: Treefera Market Intelligence’s 7 October forecast put yield at 179.9 bu/ac, above the 177.7 bu/ac trade average, before USDA raised its estimate to 181.2.
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