Australia

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Canon Electronics (7739 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP), Digital Holdings,
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Star Micronics (7718 JP).

• Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
• WRK has delivered a record cash receipts quarter ($4.0m), +74% on the previous corresponding period (pcp) and +30% on Q4 FY25, aided by milestone payments and some overdue receipts from Q4 FY25 ($0.4m).
• Total costs increased 24% on Q4 FY25 as WRK prepares for client onboarding and continues product development.

• For November 2025, eight new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
• The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in November was ~31%, with a year-to-date average of ~48%.
• The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.

• SPASX200 gained steadily through the week despite slowing daily momentum, nearly reversing last week’s decline
• Market breadth strengthened, with a broad rebound across optionable stocks.
• Implied vols declined across most single stocks, bringing the average back toward mid range levels after last week’s elevated readings

• This deal for Qube Holdings (QUB AU) from Macquarie should really get competitive. Scarce and strategic assets  – and nothing else like it that’s listed. 
• As Digital Holdings (2389 JP) goes higher, “This is Japan” risk increases; but those who didn’t sign up say “wait a minute, that’s real money” also goes up.
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) is at extreme levels vs. Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK); yet consensus indicates considerably higher forward EBITDA growth for Resorts stub ops vs. Macau.

• Fenix Resources is a rapidly growing, fully integrated iron ore producer in Western Australia, leveraging its wholly-owned logistics and port infrastructure to unlock stranded assets and maintain high margins.
• The company’s recent acquisition of a 30-year mining right at the Weld Range project is transformational, securing a 290 million tonne resource base that significantly extends mine life and provides a clear pathway to scale production beyond 4 million tonnes per annum.
• While the company trades at attractive valuation multiples and is poised for significant cash flow growth, its earnings are highly sensitive to the volatile global iron ore price, which remains the principal risk to the investment thesis.

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We have refreshed our investment case for Percheron as the company heads into CY26 with a clearly defined Phase II plan for HMBD-002, backed by positive Phase I data and a strengthened management team. Our model now reflects the likely Phase II basket design, comprising exploratory and subsequent expansion cohorts, along with refined assumptions on study size, sequencing and timelines across the four priority indications: triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), HER2-negative oesophageal adenocarcinoma and endometrial cancer. With trial initiation likely to be staggered (we model a three- to six-month gap between each arm), we anticipate TNBC and NSCLC to be the lead indications, reflecting their larger addressable markets and clearer early-stage partnering interest. We expect the company to self-sponsor the Phase II studies with a global licensing deal in 2029, ahead of Phase III. Our valuation increases to A$79.0m or 7.3c/share, from A$66.7m or 6.1c/share.

We have refreshed our investment case for Percheron as the company heads into CY26 with a clearly defined Phase II plan for HMBD-002, backed by positive Phase I data and a strengthened management team. Our model now reflects the likely Phase II basket design, comprising exploratory and subsequent expansion cohorts, along with refined assumptions on study size, sequencing and timelines across the four priority indications: triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), HER2-negative oesophageal adenocarcinoma and endometrial cancer. With trial initiation likely to be staggered (we model a three- to six-month gap between each arm), we anticipate TNBC and NSCLC to be the lead indications, reflecting their larger addressable markets and clearer early-stage partnering interest. We expect the company to self-sponsor the Phase II studies with a global licensing deal in 2029, ahead of Phase III. Our valuation increases to A$79.0m or 7.3c/share, from A$66.7m or 6.1c/share.

• National Storage REIT (NSR AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Brookfield and GIC at A$2.86 per unit, a 26.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 7 December. A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB, NZ OIO and ACCC approval. 
• The offer is attractive as it represents an all-time high and implies a P/NTA of 1.11x. The short exclusivity period increases the odds of a binding proposal.

• BHP has abandoned a last minute bid for Anglo American, which will likely see the latter’s planned merger with Teck with proceed 
• We consider other potential targets for BHP, all copper, concluding that most seem unlikely for now, especially with the company stating a focus on organic growth
• BHP faces the risks of a decline in iron ore (consensus) and copper (non-consensus) prices in our view, while it trades at premium to the sector and above our DCF 

• The board of Iress Ltd (IRE AU), a trading and wealth management software provider, has denied reports in an Australian article concerning a possible takeover from Blackstone. 
• The article said that Blackstone was reportedly back in talks for a bid “that could be worth between $11 and $12 per share“. Iress’ share price promptly popped 8% yesterday. 
• Iress is still very much in play as it “continues to engage with multiple parties“. 

• Reportedly, Brookfield and Singapore’s GIC will make an Offer for National Storage REIT (NSR AU), Australia and New Zealand’s largest landlord of self-storage sites .
• The AFR is reporting that Brookfield/GIC are on the cusp of launching a bid around NTA.  NSR entered into a trading halt this morning. 
• Earlier this year, key peer Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) fielded an NBIO from Ki Corporation/Public Storage (PSA US) at a ~3% premium to NTA; however, Ki/PSA ultimately walked. 

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has announced a production update for both the Boorara and Phillips Find JV mining operations.
• The update details progression on mining and processing at both projects as well as further detail on forward expectations which we think helps guide investors towards understanding ultimate outcomes.

• Island Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX:ILA) is an antiviral therapeutics company targeting infectious diseases.
• The company has made two recent announcements that improve its chances of selling Galidesivir for Marburg to the US government, ahead of potential FDA clearance of the drug.
• On 20 November 2025 it announced the appointment of leading Washington D.C. based federal government affairs and lobbying firm, Todd Strategy Group (TSG), to support US government engagement.

• Monadelphous is a leading Australian engineering group specializing in construction and maintenance services for the resources, energy, and infrastructure sectors. Its dual-division structure allows it to capture opportunities across the full asset lifecycle.
• The company is experiencing a period of strong growth, driven by significant contract wins in its core markets, particularly in iron ore and energy. A robust project pipeline and strategic acquisitions are expected to support continued revenue momentum.
• While exposed to the cyclical nature of the resources sector and persistent skilled labor shortages, Monadelphous‘ strong balance sheet, long-term client relationships with blue-chip companies, and diversification into renewable energy and critical minerals position it to navigate market uncertainties.

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• Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20 per share, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026 (or 15 February under certain circumstances). A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB and ACCC approval. 
• While the offer represents an all-time high, the scarcity value of high-quality infrastructure assets could spur a competing bid from others, such as Brookfield, which holds pre-emptive rights at Patrick.

• Monash IVF (MVF AU), a fertility provider, has announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) & Genesis Capital.
• The indicative terms are a ~31% premium to last close. And ~7.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Chairman Richard Davis declared terms “opportunistic in timing and materially undervalues the company“. 
• Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF.  MVF’s share price has cratered this year after a woman was mistakenly implanted with the wrong embryo. The CEO subsequently stepped down. 

• Context: The Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal Management (SGM AU) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Bluescope (BSL AU) and short Sims (SGM AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations and as the global technology sector is de-rated.
• -TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets

• The AFR reports that a mystery buyer, believed to be Genesis Capital, will launch a takeover proposal for Monash IVF (MVF AU) at A$0.80, a 31.1% premium to the last close.
• On Friday, the mystery buyer acquired a pre-bid stake of 6.01% of outstanding shares at A$0.80. The timing is opportunistic as the shares are down 51% YTD.
• It is unclear whether Genesis is aiming to launch a scheme or an off-market takeover offer. Nevertheless, the rumoured offer is light. 

• Qube Holdings (QUB AU), a logistics and infrastructure play, has announced a A$5.20/share non-binding indicative Offer from Macquarie Asset Management, a unit of Macquarie Group (MQG AU).
• That is a 27.8% premium to last close. And ~14.4x FY25 EV/EBITDA. The proposal “follows an earlier unsolicited, non-=binding and indicative offer at lower value.” Dividends paid will be netted.
• Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB and ACCC signing off.

• On 21 November, Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding takeover offer from BGH Capital at A$0.91 per share, a 1.1% premium to the Helloworld Ltd (HLO AU) offer.
• BGH’s takeover offer is conditional on a 75% minimum acceptance condition, which is too high a threshold to meet. The acceptance condition is likely to be revised to 50.1%.     
• Helloworld has justification to engage in a bidding war, particularly due to potential synergies and multiple re-rating. I would expect at least another round of bids. 

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently twelve pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Iron ore prices have remained rock-solid at 104 USD/ton, but the fundamentals are on slightly shaky ground as Rio Tinto (RIO US) commenced shipments from its Simandou project. 
• Chinese steel production and apparent demand in October tracked an extremely weak 12%/12.5% YoY, with annualized production rates now 864 million tons, and lending (TSF) was lacklustre at -42% YoY.
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) despite the negative sentiment, due to its production growth profile from 4 million to 10 million tons over the next 3 years. 

• Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations as as the global technology sector is de-rated.
• -TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets

• DXN Ltd is a specialist in the design, manufacturing, and operation of prefabricated modular data centers, positioning itself as an agile solution provider in the growing edge computing and data infrastructure market.
• The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 49% increase to $16.0 million in FY25, driven by its Modular Division and the launch of a new Data Centre as a Service (DCaaS) division aimed at generating recurring revenue.
• Despite revenue growth, DXN remains unprofitable, reporting a net loss of $2.3 million in FY25. The company’s financial stability is a key concern, underscored by persistent losses and negative operating cash flow in the most recent fiscal year.

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• Future Metals NL is an exploration-stage company focused on its 100% owned Panton PGM-Nickel Project in Western Australia, which is considered the highest-grade PGM deposit in Australia.
• The Panton project has a significant JORC Mineral Resource Estimate of 4.5 million ounces of PGM and 185,000 tonnes of nickel, positioning it as a globally significant PGM resource outside of the primary supply jurisdictions of Russia and South Africa.
• While the project shows robust economics in a December 2023 Scoping Study, the company is currently pre-revenue and faces the typical risks of an exploration company, including financing, development, and commodity price risks.

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• Keybridge Capital is a small, opportunistic investment company with a highly volatile financial track record, characterized by significant swings in revenue and profitability.
• The company’s strategy involves a diversified portfolio of equity and debt investments, with a recent history of engaging in specialized situations like stablecoin arbitrage and activist investing, exemplified by a profitable exit from Magellan Global Fund Options.
• Extreme financial volatility, negative cash flows, a no-dividend policy to date, and a highly concentrated management structure present significant risks for investors, despite a recent profitable year and very low valuation multiples.

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• RMA Global operates a digital marketing and reputation management platform, RateMyAgent, for real estate professionals, with its primary revenue generated from agent subscriptions and promotional products.
• The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, particularly in the US market, and has successfully reduced its net loss in the most recent fiscal year.
• Despite revenue growth, the company remains unprofitable and has a history of negative operating and free cash flow, indicating a continued reliance on external funding or cash reserves to sustain operations.

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• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

• Rising demand for commodities testing, supported by the soaring gold price, provided a strong first half for ALS Ltd, and it appears there’s more to come.
• -ALS Ltd first half beat expectations -Better than expected growth in minerals testing -Junior miners set to begin exploration, increasing demand -Guidance seen as conservative

• Context: The JB Hi-Fi (JBH AU) vs. Wesfarmers  (WES AU) price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long JB Hi-Fi (JBH AU) and short Wesfarmers (WES AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.