Australia

• Tuas Ltd (TUA AU)  is looking to raise around US$239m in its fully underwritten Australian placement.
• The company will use the proceeds to partially fund the acquisition of Singaporean digital network operator M1. 
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Ashimori Industry (3526 JP), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Ci Medical (3540 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP).

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Mayne Pharma faces legal challenges with Cosette over merger termination, maintaining no breach occurred; hearing set for September 9.
• OCI N.V. plans $700m shareholder return via capital repayment and extraordinary dividend, with ex-dividend date on August 18.
• Banxa’s acquisition vote set for August 28, with regulatory approvals pending; spread narrows from 38% to 25%.

• Context: The Champion Iron (CIA AU) vs. Stanmore Resources (SMR AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The trade targets ~12% return to the one-standard-deviation line.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ has released its June 2025 quarterly report which provides a progress update on mining, exploration and development activities.
• Revenue of $33.0m was generated from gold sales at Boorara with another $1.52m received as an early release from the Phillips Find JV.

• Following our bullish call on iron ore, Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels, we are now less excited on iron ore and see it drift lower. 
• We expected iron ore to test the lower-end of the long-term band of 95-110 USD/ton (vs current spot of 102 USD/ton).
• While iron ore inventories/stocks at ports drift lower, mill margins have capped out and are not rising any further, leading us to call for a short-term decline in ore prices.

• There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) & Brickworks (BKW AU)‘s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.
• Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it’ll get done.
• For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
• Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.
• Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty.

• Back in 2021, Swedish PE outfit EQT and Iress Ltd (IRE AU) were unable to firm a transaction. This was discussed in Iress (IRE AU) Accepts EQT’s Latest Proposal. 
• EQT was granted due diligence after bumping indictive terms to $15.91/share, up from an initial pitch of A$14.80/share. Its been crickets since EQT walked. 
• Now Blackstone has approached Iress, a trading and wealth management software provider. An indicative A$10.50/share cash Offer was tabled, but since withdrawn. Negotiations with Blackstone and Thoma Bravo are ongoing.

• After betr Entertainment (BBT AU) bumped scrip terms for PointsBet (PBH AU), a logical course of action for Mixi  (2121 JP) was to declare its Offer unconditional. 
• Now Mixi has bumped terms to A$1.25/share, from A$1.20/share; and declared its Offer unconditional. FIRB gave its nod on the 5th August. 
• Mixi has 28.2% of shares out, including 1.93% in the acceptance facility. “MIXI reserves the right to increase the offer price if it acquires more than 50% of PointsBet shares“.

• Mixi Inc (2121 JP) has bumped its PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) offer from 4.2% from A$1.20 to A$1.25 per share. The offer has been declared unconditional and “best and final”.
• BETR Entertainment (BBT AU)’s offer remains 2.9% above Mixi’s revised offer, with limited options for a response. The priority is to open its offer by assuaging the Takeover Panel.
• The shares are trading 1.2% above Mixi’s offer due to the optionality of a bump if Mixi attains a controlling stake. With little upside remaining, head for the exit.   

• The AFR reports that Blackstone (BX US) is considering a privatisation bid which could value Iress Ltd (IRE AU) at about A$1.9 billion (more than A$10 per share).
• Iress is no stranger to privatisation interest. In 2021, EQT (EQT SS) bid against itself thrice to offer A$15.91, before failing to table a binding proposal.   
• The shareholder structure facilitates an offer. The rumoured offer is a good starting point, but it is far from a knockout bid.

• Liontown Resources (LTR AU)  is looking to raise around US$173m from a primary placement.
• The deal is a large one, representing 23.3 days of the stock’s three month ADV, and 13.0% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Back on the 2 June 2025, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) and 42.92%-held Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) announced that, via inter-conditional Schemes, they would merge.
• TopCo, a new ASX-listed company, will acquire all of the shares in SOL and BKW via the issuance of TopCo shares: 1:1 for SOL and 0.82:1 for BKW.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with Scheme Meetings on the 10th September, and expected implementation on or before the 23 September. The IE Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe.
• The company has released its quarterly 4C cashflow statement and a Q2FY25 financial and operating update (December year-end) containing some key H125 data points.
• The H125 result was a significantly positive turnaround with growth driven by the Ivory Coast Addendum project and improved performance across most business units.

• This is a follow-up on the pair trade between REA Group (REA AU) and News Corp (NWS AU), originally flagged due to a significant deviation in their price ratio.
• Highlight: The pair hit its profit target as REA Group outperformed its parent post-earnings, pushing the price ratio back across the one-standard-deviation line.
• Why Read: This Insights shows how catalysts such as earnings events can accelerate mean-reversion trades and deliver above-target returns.

• Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
• TPG is offering A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The transaction requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards.
• As discussed in Infomedia (IFM AU): Now A Three-Way Hunt, Infomedia fielded various indicative Offers (including TA Associates/Viburnum, Battery Ventures, and Solera) in 2022, none of which went the distance.

• Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with TPG Inc (TPG US) at A$1.72, a 30.3% premium to the undisturbed price of A$1.32 (5 August).
• The scheme is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Shareholders should be supportive, given a reasonable offer and Infomedia’s history of non-binding bids. 
• At the last close and for an end-of-November payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/7.5%.

• This is a follow-up on the relative value trade between Credit Corp (CCP AU) and Magellan Financial (MFG AU), originally flagged due to a significant deviation in their price ratio.
• Highlight: Credit Corp (CCP AU) surged 16.2% post-earnings, driving the pair to close with a 19.1% return in just 7 days.
• Why Read: Demonstrates how mean-reversion setups can still outperform, even in the presence of strong momentum. A valuable Insight for relative value traders navigating trend-heavy environments.

• Rising costs and weak pricing weighed on first quarter earnings for Champion Iron, but development projects remain on course to support growth.
• -Champion Iron’s first quarter production and earnings disappoint -Record sales, but rising costs and lower realised pricing -Capex projects on track, liquidity expected to improve -Improving balance sheet, but still sensitive to commodity prices

• Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, people have looked to the sea as a potential source of nearly unlimited, sustainable energy that rolls by our coasts every day in the form of wave energy.
• As early as the 19th century, inventors began devising plans to harness this energy to power early mechanical devices inside mills, water pumps, and later, even small electrical systems.
• However, despite the tantalizing appeal of this resource, wave energy has yet to be fully developed into a viable commercial alternative to mainstream renewable energy sources like wind and solar.

EOS Optic Systems has announced a landmark order. The group has been developing High Energy Laser Weapons (HELW) systems to expand on its traditional kinetic systems for a number of years. The €71.4m order provides a clear validation of the group’s strategy and technology as well as an income stream for the next three years.

• 2Q25 net production of 303 boe/d was higher than our expectations of ~270 boe/d following a 5 well intervention programme at the Zisterdorf and Gaiselberg fields in the Vienna Basin.
• The programme included (1) repair of subsurface equipment, (2) clean out of a down hole sand control (3) perforation of a new oil production zone in a well.
• Despite a drop in oil price revenue during June, adjusted 2Q25 sales were A$3.5 mm.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlight: Currently six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Krosaki Harima (5352 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK), Santos Ltd (STO AU), Smart Share Global (EM US). 
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), New World Resources (NWC AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), Nippon Concept (9386 JP). 

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART has reported its Q4 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs accelerating from the positive Q3 FY25 trends.
• Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a net cash position of $19.1m.

• While Mineral Resources performed strongly operationally in the fourth quarter, not everyone is comfortable with its debt and the outlook for commodity prices.
• -Mineral Resources’ strong fourth quarter across all segments -Production outperformance, strong cashflows at Wodgina and Onslow -Onslow progressing toward nameplate capacity -Improving balance sheet, but sensitivity to commodity prices remains

• We believe the expected increased need in North America for critical materials, including anode, is a key factor behind the non-dilutive funding the company has been able to obtain from the DOE, Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program and other sources, as NVX moves forward with the construction of a 2nd Tennessee plant.
• Production capacity of its existing Riverside plant has been pre-sold via multiple offtake agreements and NVX plans to construct a 2nd facility in the state, recently obtaining approval and expected tax credits toward this project.
• NVX has secured additional liquidity, recently entering into a funding agreement for up to US$100m convertible debentures with Yorkville Advisors Global.