Australia

• The Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU) IE considers TPG’s A$1.70 offer fair and reasonable, as it falls within its A$1.57 to A$1.79 valuation range.
• The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, German FDI approval, and shareholder approval. Shareholders should be supportive, as the offer is reasonable and Infomedia’s history of non-binding bids.
• The scheme vote is low-risk. At the last close and for a 3 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.2%/7.4%.  

• Back on the 11th July,Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), a automotive software firm, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with PE-outfit TPG.
• TPG offered A$1.72/share, a 30% premium to last close. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Infomedia’s boards. All in, terms looked clean.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th November, and expected implementation on the 3rd December. The IE (Grant Thornton) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD) is well-positioned to capitalize on the continued recovery and growth of the global corporate travel market, driven by its proprietary technology, global scale, and diversified client base.
• The company’s asset-light business model and focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) contribute to high margins and a sticky customer base, although recent performance has been impacted by macroeconomic uncertainty and weaker-than-expected government contract contributions.
• Future growth is expected to be supported by strategic acquisitions, continued investment in technology and automation (including AI) to drive efficiencies, and the recovery of key markets like North America and Asia.

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• Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX:HRZ) is an emerging junior gold producer with 1.8moz of gold resources located around the Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie regions of Western Australia.
• HRZ released an update covering progress on drilling at the Burbanks project which is a two-stage, 30km drilling program covering both infill and extensional drilling.
• Initial results from stage one demonstrates continuity in the existing resource model which should support conversion of the resource from inferred to indicated.

Percheron Therapeutics has reported final results from the Phase I dose escalation study of HMBD-002, its monoclonal antibody targeting VISTA, a novel immune checkpoint protein. The data confirmed the compound’s favourable safety and tolerability profile (maximum tolerated dose not reached with <10% of patients experiencing grade 3 or greater adverse events), with early signs of disease control in advanced solid tumours. The trial was not designed or sufficiently powered to demonstrate efficacy; however, evidence of stable disease (28% of cases) in an otherwise heavily pre-treated patient population (median four to five prior lines of treatment) supports Percheron’s move towards Phase II development in CY26. We expect the announcement on the Phase II design and target indications, due in Q4 CY25, as the next big catalyst for the company.

Recce has reached a key milestone with the start of patient dosing in its Phase III Indonesian-focused study of the topical gel formulation (R327G) of its lead anti-infective therapeutic drug candidate, RECCE® 327 (R327), for the treatment of diabetic foot infections (DFIs). DFIs are the leading cause of limb morbidity in diabetic patients and an area of unmet need, as currently available topical drugs have limited effectiveness. Positive Phase III results could lead to Recce’s earliest commercialisation opportunity, through a launch of R327G in South-East Asia in the DFI indication in H2 CY26. We now determine an rNPV valuation of A$600.2m (or A$2.24 per share), versus A$615.1m (or A$2.51 per share) previously.

• G8 Education is Australia’s largest publicly listed provider of early childhood education and care (ECEC), operating over 400 centres. The company is poised to benefit from favorable demographic trends and increasing government support for the sector.
• Recent financial performance shows consistent revenue and net income growth, driven by improved occupancy rates and disciplined cost management. The company has also demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns through progressively higher dividends.
• Key strategic priorities include enhancing educational quality, improving workforce retention, and optimizing the centre network. However, the company faces significant risks from potential changes in government childcare subsidies, intense industry competition, and challenges in attracting and retaining qualified staff.

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• The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.
• Investigations into the accident at Simandou are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. 
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 

• DroneShield is a rapidly growing, pure-play specialist in the counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) market, uniquely positioned to capitalize on escalating global defense and security spending.
• The company’s proprietary AI-driven software and comprehensive product suite, ranging from handheld to fixed-site solutions, provide a significant technological advantage, leading to substantial contract wins with military and government clients worldwide.
• While exhibiting explosive revenue growth and achieving recent profitability, the company faces risks associated with lumpy government contract cycles, intense competition from larger defense contractors, and the need for continuous innovation to maintain its technological edge.

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• In a transformative year, the key financials from these Interims to 30 June 2025 can be summarised by $30m of borrowings being cleared by writing-off, conversion, and new equity raised at 0.5p.
• Further funding is required for project development debt with some equity, to meet the growing opportunity of the renewables work programme in Vietnam.
• The Vietnamese Government’s clean energy agenda is to transition away from coal and fossil fuels to produce 28-36% of its 560.4bn KW per annum power usage in renewables by 2030.

• Cryosite Limited (ASX:CTE) is an Australian company specialising in temperature-controlled storage and logistics solutions for the life sciences and pharmaceutical industries, in particular for clinical trials and biological materials.
• It’s positioned to capitalise on the explosive growth in cell and gene therapies (CGT), mRNA-based medicines, and biological sample management.
• Founded in 2000 as Australia’s first private cord blood bank, the company has evolved into a specialised end-to-end provider of outsourced storage and logistics services, with a focus on compliance, safety and efficiency.

• Context: The Amotiv (AOV AU) vs. ARB (ARB AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Amotiv (AOV AU) and short ARB (ARB AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Key points (machine generated)

• Metals X’s share price increased from AUD 0.22 in July 2021 to AUD 0.54, peaking at AUD 0.75 in April 2022 due to rising tin prices.
• As one of only two listed tin miners in a Western jurisdiction, Metals X presents a unique investment opportunity despite facing challenges like a complex corporate structure and reliance on a single mine.
• Recent share price changes and corporate actions suggest a potential for re-rating, making Metals X an attractive investment despite existing risks.

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• CommBank’s shares broke down in July, but recently the share price has been shown more positive signs of moving higher, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable reports.

• Coro Energy 0.43p £3.91m (CORO.L)* The South East Asian renewable energy developer announces its unaudited interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2025.
• The Company added a further 2.2MW of commercial and industrial (C&I) rooftop solar capacity with Mobile World Group (MWG) bringing the Group’s total aggregate operational capacity in Vietnam to 6.4MW with estimated run-rate annual cash flows of approximately US$720,000.
• The Company is in advanced negotiations with an industrial customer for a new 10MW project across several factory locations in Vietnam. 

• The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
• Via a “definitive plan of arrangement“, Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
• The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex’s shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.

• Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for ten prominent Australian stocks and the benchmark.
• Highlights: December implied volatility tends to be rich for the banks and cheap for the miners. S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) implied volatility is cheap across the curve.
• Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

Since our last note on 12 May, Barton has continued to aggressively develop its assets in pursuit of its ambition to produce 150koz gold per year in a two-stage ‘hub and spoke’ model, leveraging its Central Gawler Mill (CGM) and a new future Tunkillia mill. To this end, it has a) continued extensive drilling at Tarcoola-Tolmer, b) acquired the Wudinna prospect for a likely consideration of A$7.5m, or A$15/oz (plus a further potential A$7.5m if it goes into production), c) completed a A$3.0m placing to fund reserve conversion upgrade drilling at Tunkillia as well as a JORC resource upgrade at Tarcoola and d) announced two resource upgrades at its Challenger mine adjacent to the CGM to increase its resource to over 300koz, including 194koz at 3.2g/t Au on existing open pit and underground development. Consequently, Barton has now commenced a definitive feasibility study on ‘Stage 1’ production at the CGM as well as resource upgrade drilling at Tunkillia’s ‘Starter Pits’ and the necessary baseline water monitoring programme to support a mining licence application in late CY26. As a result, its market capitalisation has increased from A$49m in January to A$282m now, and it has been accepted for inclusion into the S&P Dow Jones ASX All Ordinaries Index of the 500 largest companies in Australia.

• Weebit Nano is a pre-revenue semiconductor company developing a next-generation non-volatile memory (NVM) technology called Resistive RAM (ReRAM).
• The company’s primary business model is licensing its ReRAM intellectual property (IP) to semiconductor foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs).
• Weebit’s ReRAM technology aims to be a successor to flash memory, offering significant improvements in performance, power consumption, and endurance, particularly for applications in IoT, AI, and automotive sectors.

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• 4DS Memory is a semiconductor technology company developing a proprietary Interface Switching Resistive Random Access Memory (ReRAM) for high-bandwidth and high-endurance applications, particularly targeting the AI and high-performance computing markets.
• The company is in a pre-revenue stage, focusing on research and development. Recent developments include a strategic review and a pause in its collaboration with imec and Infineon to reassess its technology pathway, creating significant uncertainty.
• Financially, 4DS is reliant on capital raisings to fund its operations, with no revenue generated to date and consistent net losses. The company’s future is contingent on the successful development and commercialization of its ReRAM technology.

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• PolyNovo is a rapidly growing medical device company whose patented NovoSorb® biodegradable polymer technology is disrupting the advanced wound care market, particularly in burns and trauma.
• The company has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, recently achieving profitability, driven by the increasing adoption of its flagship product, NovoSorb BTM, in key markets like the United States.
• Future growth is expected to be fueled by geographic expansion into new markets, the launch of new products and indications (such as NovoSorb MTX), and potential tailwinds from favorable reimbursement changes in the U.S.

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• Ricegrowers Limited, trading as SunRice (ASX:SGLLV) has been the strongest performing stock across our selected FMCG peer group from a share price perspective since June 2025, rising 66% against a peer average +10% and closest peer (Ebro Foods) +4%.
• ASX300 index inclusion (September 2025) appears the driver of the most recent price rally, closing the historical EV/EBITDA multiple discount to peers.
• While wary of chasing the share price, we have previously alluded to some wiggle room with the beta we use in deriving our DCF valuation.

• Context: The Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS AU) vs. Ampol (ALD AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Woodside Energy (WDS AU) and short Ampol (ALD AU) targets a 6% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Television broadcaster and publisher Seven West Media (SWM AU) has entered into a Scheme with radio network play Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).
• SXL will issue 0.1552 new shares for every SWM. Should the Scheme get up, SXL will hold 50.1% of the combined entity and SWM the remainder.
• Kerry Stokes backed SGH Limited (SGH AU) will hold ~20% in the merged entity. But not all shareholders are on board with the Offer. Trading through terms.

• Seven West Media (SWM AU) will merge with Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) at a ratio of 0.1552 SXL shares per SWM share. 
• The merger is strategically sensible and is expected to deliver annualised cost synergies of A$25 to A$35 million. The merger requires approval from both the ACMA and the ACCC.
• While the offer is light compared to historical exchange ratios and peer multiples, large SWM shareholders are supportive. The scheme vote risk is low. 

• Domino’s Pizza Enterprises is navigating a challenging period marked by declining profitability and significant management transitions, despite maintaining relatively stable revenue. The company’s long-term growth trajectory has stalled, as evidenced by negative compound annual growth rates in key metrics like net income and EPS over the past 3, 5, and 10 years.
• The company is undertaking a strategic reset focused on improving franchisee profitability, particularly in underperforming markets like Japan and France, which involves store closures and operational restructuring. Future growth hinges on the success of these turnaround efforts and a return to sustainable organic store expansion.
• Intense competition from other major pizza chains, local operators, and third-party delivery aggregators, coupled with inflationary pressures on food and labor costs, remains a primary risk. The company’s ability to leverage its brand, scale, and technology will be critical to defending its market position and restoring margin health.

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• Premier Investments’ Peter Alexander Brand is firing domestically and is just getting going in the UK.
• Smiggle has struggled, but analysts see a turnaround ahead.
• -Premier Investments’ FY25 sees Peter Alexander outperform and Smiggle underperform -Margins reduced due to expansion and start-up costs -Consumer environment improving for Smiggle -FY26 turnaround thesis suggests shares are cheaply priced

• Clarity Pharmaceuticals Ltd (CU6 AU) entered into a commercial manufacturing agreement with SpectronRx for 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA. SpectronRx is capable of producing up to 400K patient-ready doses of 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA annually.
• Clarity’s Targeted Copper Theranostic products and clinical development programs will remain unaffected by the U.S. imposed 100% tariff on imports of branded pharmaceutical products.
• In July, Clarity completed A$203M institutional placement, resulting in a pro-forma cash balance of approximately A$288M. This will help fund ongoing clinical trial programs, including the pivotal Phase 3 trials.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
• Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.
• Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.

• RaaS Senior Analyst Graeme Carson interviews Fluence Corporation CEO-elect Ben Fash on the company’s business, strategy and outlook.

Canyon Resources has announced a major equity financing that will bring c A$215m in gross proceeds at A$0.26/share, just 6% below the undisturbed price, significantly strengthening the company’s liquidity position in the run-up to first production in Q1 CY26. Executed in two tranches, the placement will see the new shareholder, Afriland Bourse & Investissement, gaining c 10% in the company alongside Canyon’s cornerstone shareholder, Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA), at 57%. Together with secured debt and cash on hand, these funds will comfortably cover project capex beyond stage 2 production of 2Mtpa.

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. 
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) is looking to raise around US$725m in a secondary placement.
• The proceeds will be used to pay down Gold Fields.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• While FY25 results for Myer revealed resilient sales, a step-up in costs was cause for concern though analysts generally believe management’s strategy reset remains on track.
• -Myer’s FY25 result disappoints on costs, shares weaken -Analysts posit it is still early in management’s multi-year transformation plan -Step-up in CODB costs is structural, cautions Ord Minnett -If all goes well, shareholders can expect significant step-up in dividends

• Aureka Limited (ASX:AKA) is a junior gold exploration company with four projects spread across key current and historical gold-producing regions in the state of Victoria, Australia.
• The company was “rebooted” from the administration of Navarre Minerals Ltd (ASX:NML), with a new board and management team reviving the original gold projects in late 2024.
• These projects retain significant exploration potential upon which AKA is committed to testing with ongoing exploration planned throughout CY25.

• Cochlear Ltd (COH AU) expects to report FY26 underlying net profit of $435–460M, an 11–17% increase on FY25, up 5–11% on a comparative (cloud adjusted) basis.
• The Nucleus Nexa System has been launched in Europe and Asia Pacific in mid-June 2025 and will be launched in the U.S. by the end of Q1FY26.
• The company expects strong FY26 revenue growth in developed markets from the launch of the new Nucleus Nexa implant, with overall revenue and earnings growth weighted to the second half.